Rarely means… whatever the hell you want it to mean

So — either you need to win the Iowa caucuses or you don’t. But as Steve M. writes, the Jeb!® campaign is cranking it up to 11 12 (fuck yeah!):

In a memo Bush’s top advisers sent this morning to supporters and prominent donors, which was obtained by ABC News after first being reported by Politico, the campaign downplayed the Iowa caucuses because the winners rarely go on to win the nomination.

So what does rarely mean? Since 1976, there have been 7 contested caucuses. And the winners were:

  • 1976: Gerald Ford+ (45%) and Ronald Reagan (43%)
  • 1980: George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan+ (30%)
  • 1988: Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush+ (19%)
  • 1996: Bob Dole+ (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%)
  • 2000: George W. Bush+ (41%), Steve Forbes (31%)
  • 2008: Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain+ (13%)
  • 2012: Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney+ (25%)
  • So it would appear that rarely means 4 out 7 times (if you count the Santorum-Mittens tie as a co-win). And of the remaining 3, one featured a 2% difference between the winner of the caucus and the eventual winner. What seems more important though is the question: How many times has a candidate who losed it up* by finishing 6th with 2.8%** of the vote go on to win? Someone should do the research on that one.

    * This is not proper English — or proper anything really.
    ** Seriously you guys, Jeb!® finished 6th behind Ben Carson and Rand Paul.


    Comments: 15


    Jeb!’s exactly where he wants to be. It’s right there in the numbers, for those who want to see it. He got 3% of the caucus votes, finished in 6th place, and now goes on to the New Hampshire primary on the 9th. 3-6-9, just as the song says.


    The fact is, if you support Bernie Sanders you support goverment takover of everything, which is socialism like Hitler or Stalin. Also, we are based on the free market here in the Heart Land so all his class warfare will fail on deaf eyes


    Seb! is back!

    And Gary Ruppert is already shitting himself!


    … as in: basic math is rarely respected in politics.


    When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.


    Jeb has the opposition right where he wants them.


    “Fail on deaf eyes” is a truly original expression!


    Stalin Center Hitler

    Yeah! Just like StalinHitler! With a double Unabomber twist!


    Jeb! is this election cycle’s Fred Thompson (2008 edition).


    I missed Seb.


    Lil’ Jeremiah Eulalie Bush still has a secret weapon – Babsie will cut a bitch. When you find Teddie Knickers exsanguinated at the base of the statue honoring Lord Stanley, former head of the CIA (Canadian Iceball Architect) with a maple leaf implanted in his fartbox, look for size 6 pedal pushers and a spare pearl. White, of course.


    The total collapse of the Bush name is going to be my most pleasant memory of this election…


    To be fair, Ted Cruz might not actually be eligible[1], Rubio may have had his Macaca moment[2], and Aqua Buddha has dropped out. So Jeb! effectively placed third – which is the true measure of how viable a campaign is[3].

    1. http://balkin.blogspot.ca/2016/01/is-ted-cruz-naturalized-citizen.html

    2. Let’s dispel once and for all… Loading…Error 53

    3. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-27/ben-carson-sets-top-3-finish-as-marker-of-success-in-iowa-caucus


    So it would appear that rarely means 4 out 7 times (if you count the Santorum-Mittens tie as a co-win).

    I would, except it’s Santorum and Mitt RMoney, so it’s more of a co-loss.


    Okay, if we keep in mind that Cruz isn’t eligible – this is a second top three finish. Feel the Jeb!-mentum.


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