My theory that I have follows the lines I am about to relate

Again something along the lines of “arguably true but shouldn’t the examples given support the theory?” Over at The Huffington Post, Jay Newton-Small asserts:

The GOP’s Biggest Problem: Women

So leaving aside the many other problems of the GOP, what have we got?

As Trump heads into Iowa and New Hampshire leading in the polls and looking likely to be the nominee, he risks doing permanent damage for Republicans with the largest of voting demographic groups: women.

Riiiiight, permanent damage. Explain how!

The only times Republicans have won the White House since Ronald Reagan is when George H. W. Bush and his son appealed to security moms and soccer moms; they still lost the women’s vote but narrowly enough so that their big male turnouts won the day.

So again as was the case with Iowa, we have a “the only time except for those other times that it also happened I  noticed variable x had some value or another.” Which is great if you’re a guest contributor on Fox & Friends, less so otherwise. The “only times” in this case number 3 out of a total of 7 — seems we’re a few data points away from a clear trend. It’s also worth nothing that the smallest gender gap in presidential elections since Reagan was 4% — when Clinton beat Bush in 1992.

In recent [?] elections the numbers are moving against the GOP. Even with a female running mate, Republican presidential nominee John McCain lost women to Obama by seven percentage points; four years later, Republican challenger Mitt Romney lost them by 12 percentage points.

Hmm, Sadly, No! Since 1980, the gender gap has been 8-7-6-4-11-10-7-7-10. The 2012 figure is the highest of the last 3 — but lower than 1996, and at the same level than 2000. It seems also rather cruel to state that “even with Sarah Palin” Republicans still lost the women’s vote by 7 percent. Sarah Palin! (Besides, having a female running mate didn’t seem to do wonders for Mondale in 1984: 6% gap).

It’s also worth noting the use of this statistic:

A Quinnipiac University survey released December 22 found that among all female voters — Republicans, Democrats, and independents — Trump’s favorable rating was 25 percent, and his unfavorable rating was 68 percent, producing a net measure of minus 43 percentage points.

One could instead look at a poll of voters rather than favorable ratings, in which case one might find stuff like this:

    • Men prefer Trump over Clinton by a 41% to 31% margin, while women prefer Clinton by a similar 42% to 31% margin. [A 9% gap, in line with results since 1980 –Rasmussen] Or you could dig through this CNN poll (PDF) and find Clinton leading Trump by 4% among women voters.  

Did I miss something?

But that wasn’t enough to overcome President Obama’s 20 percentage-point lead among single women, one of the largest voting blocks when they turn out and key to his winning the women’s vote by 12 points.

You lost me at when.


Comments: 16


These continuing theories that Trump is somehow damaging the “brand” of the GOP are comical. He’s the distilled essence of the GOP — he is the brand.


OBS skrev:

These continuing theories that Trump is somehow damaging the “brand” of the GOP are comical. He’s the distilled essence of the GOP — he is the brand.

What they want to, but dare not, say is what he’s really damaging, viz. or to wit, the GOP’s ability to pretend its brand is something intelligent, aware people want.


Whoa! Did Abe Vigoda really dying this time inspire you to tell the world (the important parts of it anyway, the S,N! demo) that you aren’t dead, Seb? Nice to see you again.

Did I miss something?

You sure did. You missed that the media goobers and punditcrats don’t have a fucking clue when it comes to statistical analysis (in truth, not many people do) but they really really really want to show you their VERY IMPORTANT ANALYSIS. So they enter the Dunning-Kruger poster child of the day competition. Duh.


Seb! How is your unhealthy obsession with my breasts?


Sorry to hear your breasts are unhealthy.


Seb, if this thing doesn’t stop eating comments there won’t be much of an uptick.


lol…here is my favorite fb comment of the day: “we are barely surviving this presidency. Since we have, I’m sure we could survive four years of trump.”


Forget it, Jake … it’s Chinatown HuffPo.


Oh gee look at that – why am I not surprised?

The Snyder administration quietly trucked in water to state buildings in January of 2015 – ten months prior to Governor Snyder publicly admitting there was reason for concern in Flint, according to a document obtained by Progress Michigan.

The document is a Facility Notification sent by the Department of Technology, Management and Budget (DTMB) in response to poor water quality in Flint. The notification stated that water coolers were being installed on each occupied floor next to the drinking fountains so that state workers could choose to continue to drink Flint water or a safe alternative.

“It appears the state wasn’t as slow as we first thought in responding the Flint Water Crisis. Sadly, the only response was to protect the Snyder administration from future liability and not to protect the children of Flint from lead poisoning,” said Lonnie Scott, executive director of Progress Michigan. “While residents were being told to relax and not worry about the water, the Snyder administration was taking steps to limit exposure in its own building.”


I don’t like Trump, but most presidential race generalizations are bunk because there’s just not enough of them often enough to make generalizations about in a changing world.

The pundits, with their “No Democrat has ever won the Presidency in a year when a blue whale didn’t beach itself in Callifornia”-type mentality, is just trying to fill air time.


Sigh, how I’ve missed Seb.


Pup, I saw Kindly Doc Maddow reporting about that on Friday night and, let me tell you, I am disappoint in her geek credentials. She got all the way through her commentary with no mention of the Motorway Planning Council, or of notifications being at the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused restroom with a sign on the door saying BEWARE OF THE LEOPARD.


I had to stop watching Doc Maddow lest I become another (less Big but definitely Bad) Bald Bastard.


Oh Jebus fuck.

Fox News Guest Says Blacks Show ‘Slavish Support’ For Democrats

But she’s black so it’s okay!


Think camouflage gear, an AR-15 with a sniper sight, and fat middle-aged men in a martial crouch.


Seb! How is your unhealthy obsession with my breasts?

This is nothing but an attempt at a “real and spectacular” reference, correct?


(comments are closed)