Essentially, “Bush sucked so bad in the first debate of each season that, by virtue of not choking quite to death on a pretzel in the second and third of each season, he seemed to win! And I wonder if McCain has similar plans to botch things terribly on purpose tonight, so he can come back and really wow people in the next two. Pity Palin only gets one debate…”

Also, no nap.

If anyone knows about lowered expectations, it’s Jay Nordlinger.

Hmmm, yeeesssss, I think these winger water carriers should keep inflating the importance of the debates by either under or over estimating how well/badly McCain has to do to win it. This should be just as entertaining as watching Faux News now spinning how great it is that McSame is going to the debate tonight, when previously it was a sign of his statesmanly greatness that he wasn’t going to.

Flopsweat, and lots of it.

I stopped listening to Nerdlinger when his bra bomb failed to work.

The Truth is Rainbow Man?

I told the wife about the general feeling here that McSame has disgraced himself all week and that it’s now O’s to lose.

She, skeptically: Oh yeah? What about the voting machines, and the Republican voter subversions, and all THAT?

So I said I’d put it before the People here.

Thoughts?

GOPer voter criminality is always an issue in presidential elections. Fortunately, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico are controlled by Dems this time.

Man, The Truth is out of gas.

And feel free to reference this, bozo.

But, durr, Michelle Obama! Right.

Specifically, Toot:

On the eve of the first Presidential Debate, Barack Obama is perhaps in as strong a position in the polls as he has been all year, now projecting to win the election 74.7 percent of the time. Both the state and the national polls that have come out within the past 48 hours have generally been quite favorable to Obama, and suggest that he may gained an additional point or so above and beyond his “Lehman Leap” from last week.

But, um, we’re all gonna go down because we’re being mean to Sarah Palin! Right. Totally right.

Yes, troofy, the polls

Yep, there it is! Obama’s doomed! It’s over! It doesn’t matter that his lead is growing all over, Obama’s screwed because of a phenomenon that is hardly considered to be absolute fact:

The first finding suggested the possibility of the Bradley effect, while the last finding suggested the possibility of a “reverse” Bradley effect in which black voters might have been reluctant to declare to pollsters their support for Obama or are underpolled.

THAT’s what you’re hinging all your hopes and dreams on? You ARE pathetic.

And thanks for bringing up the 538 argument against the Bradley effect. Truth, you have absolutely nothing. And I’m betting dollars to donuts you don’t have the rocks to hang out around here when McCain comes crashing down in November. Prove me wrong. Or just shut up. Actually, just shut up- your schtick is tired.

The Truth:

durrrrrrrrr me so stoopid!!!!!!!!

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

What a dope!

Oh, come on. Jay thinks its really necessary to lower the bar? Good god, Jay, are you late to this party.

Man, what a FUCKING tool. Was it two or three weeks ago that Troofy was here waving polls in our face every single day? Oblivious to the idea of a “convention bump”. And now he’s all “Bradley Effect”. Okay Troofy, whenever a poll shows JiSM3 in the lead – that’s honest accouting, but whenever a poll shows Obama in the lead, that’s obviously a manifestation of the Bradley Effect. Got it. Any more words of wisdom to impart?

DK, please don’t pretend that you don’t understand the Bradley effect. When the polls show McCain ahead, they understate his lead. When the polls show Obama (very slightly) ahead, they are wrong. That’s what the Bradley effect does, darling.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

make the dumb man stop!

Why are you laughing at me? Obama’s going to lose by 10 percentuge points, because the Bradley thing is real.

You liberals hate me because I’m awesome. Boo yeah.

You know we know who you are, right?

I don’t care. You people don’t respect me. You’ll see how smart I am, because the Bradley effect thing is real, and I’m smart and awesome. You’ll see.

Troofy,

Here, in this historic election campaign, we’ve had the wonderful opportunity to test out the crazy ass theory that people claim to lurve negroes when they really want to string them up instead. Well, some people have done just that – did you actually read your fucking link?

Wikipedia is a liberal site. Why don’t you try conservopedia? It’s a lot smarter.

Wow, this clown is losing it, right in front of our eyes. Too bad, so sad.

I’m going to make this clear.

DK, I did read the link. I didn’t see anything in there that debunks the Bradley effect; in fact, the article suggests that in states with less than 8% AA population, the effect is alive and well. This would include states like MN and WI, which I referenced above.

If you think McCain is going to win Wisconsin and Minnesota at this juncture, you’re a moron. Which you are.

If we are even to believe the Bradley effect is a wide-reaching, 100%-always-happens phenomenon, which it simply is not, the land-line effect, the huge gains in Democratic voter registration, PalinMania coming to a screeching halt, etc., etc. nullify it in full. I know you’ve got to keep up the good fight, which is admirable in its ridiculousness, but dude- McPalin is a terrible ticket, and the polls reflect the popular opinion on this. You can squeal “Bradley!” all you want, but you. Have. Nothing.

Like I said, you don’t have the stones to come around here after this election. Absolutely do not.

Also, do yourself a favor and read that 538 link about the Bradley effect. It’s mostly a sham. As is the notion that McCain could get 70% of independents.

You folks are going to be very surprised to see what happens tonight.

I look forward to hearing about McCain’s obese stalker barrelling onto stage and attempting to fellate him.

Your blah-bomb better work, Nordlinger.
.

Why are you laughing at me? Obama’s going to lose by 10 percentuge points, because the Bradley thing is real.

Percentuge?

Did Obama run out of quatloos?

Was he doomed by El Niño?
.

The “Bradley thing” faded by the mid 90’s. According to actual scientists. And it was never that robust to begin with, more of an urban legend than a reliable, and repeatable, phenomenon.

One thing we know about Truthy: copious lying under the name of Truth does not bother he or she, and so this one does not believe in Karmic Retribution.

But I do.

…copious lying under the name of Truth does not bother he or she…

Watch your pronoun cases! Here you’ll be wanting the objective, so him or shim is proper.

WereBear: For one thing, the “Bradley effect” can’t be tested empirically. That’s the sort of thing that can kind of undermine a theory.

In other words, Truthless is a douchebag.

I think we have ample support for MzNicky’s theory.

WereBear: It’s definitely a reliable and repeatable phenomenon.

Four litres of douche in a two-litre bag.

You folks are going to be very surprised to see what happens tonight. Do come back afterwards and talk about it.

Heck, I’ll be surprised if McCain actually shows up for the debate. At this point, he’s capable of anything.

I have noticed that liberals are starting to resign themselves to the idea of a McCain victory.

Uhh… link?

when the reality of the situation dawns on you liberals

Reality is the Republican candidate saying he’s not going to show up for the first debate until a bill is passed, but while the bill is still up in the air, he shows up anyway.

Speculation is why he did it.

Aaron, just look upthread a few posts.

Uh, I think Aaron was requesting actual evidence. Not some douche quoting what some other douche on teevee said about some anecdotal (and probably apocryphal–look it up, dearie, it’s from teh bible!) “folks.”

Any other questions, darling?

Any other (or any) answers, douchebag?

No, I thought not.

Well, just got back from dinner – and since everyone’s up a thread, probably talking about the debate I figure I’ll just make myself cozy here for a while.

Troofy, here’s the point – polls inherently have uncertainty. The smug way you dismiss any poll that differs from your worldview as some sort of manifestation of a decades old and probably out of date social model is hilarious. In the section of your link that I pointed out, there was a question of under-sampling blacks. The question becomes, how do you take this into account? Is having a black candidate likely to increase turnout of this demographic?

And then, when the polls show something different, you ignore the fact that most of that polling was done in the final days of the GOP convention, or just a few days after. I bet you haven’t even heard about pollsters admitting that they’re over-sampling Republicans.

Regardless, you keep coming back with the “rude awakening on Nov. 5” nonsense – but you never link stuff that tracks EV’s. Do you want to write off 538 because they’re a bunch of lefties? Despite the fact that Nate Silver is incredibly open about how he runs his simulations? What about RCP or electoral-vote.com? All three show an Obama win.

I still believe that the current polling is still being skewed by the back-to-back conventions, although at this point I suspect that the financial meltdown is having a much larger effect. Regardless, if you believe that McCain is holding some sort of advantage right now, well then you’re reading the numbers wrong.

Pretty brave words, one hour into the first debate – and I have no idea what’s happening in it. And as the guy who cremated Sam McGee said, I guess he’s cooked – and it’s time I looked…

Wisconsin, where I live, has a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators and is about to have a Democratic bicameral legislature. The last Republican politician from Wisconsin who aspired to national office was Tommy Thompson. Remember him, Truth? I didn’t think so. Obama doesn’t have an out-of-wedlock teenage daughter, so there goes that voting block. But, hey, 1500 hundred families are going to lose their husbands, wives, daughters, and sons to Iraq for a war McCain says we just won. There’s a bunch of voters right there that don’t care whether Gov. Palin ever shot a moose. Talk about epic fail!

When I said Wisconsin, I meant Iowa. They’re the same where I come from.

Wow, The Fuckfart, McCain really kicked ass tonight! NOT!

Now go take your micropenis and stuff it in a bottle of acid, you pathetic sack of shit. And tell your mother I’m coming to drop a hot batch of little Nigels all over her pig face.

You pathetic sack of micropenis shit. You disgust me, pussy. Eat shit and die, with a strong emphasis on die. Fucking shithead.

Also, when I nail a steamer all over her fake tits, you’ll forgive me if I accidentally shit in your mouth. Then again, it’s better than whatever wingnut nonsense usually resides there. Fucking clown.

Truth seems to have adopted the personality of a fictional an insane rapist and murderer.

I guess everyone needs someone to look up to.

Heh. I like how Truth got reaaaaally quiet.