Spite Works
One of American liberalism’s saddest myths is that the American people are inherently good, optimistic folks who have been duped into voting against their interests by crafty Republicans who play on their spites and resentments. If only the Democrats could nominate someone who embodies a new kind of politics where people are offered hope instead of anger, this reasoning goes, they will see the truth and sweep the Democrats into power.
In the real world, of course, this isn’t true. People love voting out of spite in this country, and the Republicans know it. That’s how so many Republicans, from Nixon to Reagan to Bush, all won two presidential terms despite having economic policies that hurt the average American to benefit the super-rich. And now, McCain is following in this proud tradition by making his entire campaign exclusively negative.
Just take a look at the campaigns’ two online press rooms to see this dynamic at work. On the Obama side, you’ve got stuff like this:
Indeed, if you look at the campaign’s compilation of official press releases, you’ll see that the Obama crew haven’t even mentioned McCain since June 22. The McCain press room, on the other hand, is filled with things like this:
And that’s how it’s going to play out. St. BBQ will run an exclusively negative campaign calling Obama a Hollywood hip-hop lovin’, troop hatin’ fag, while Obama will get out on the stump and talk about the politics of hope. If you can’t see where this is headed, you just haven’t been paying attention for the last 40 years.
If the Obama campaign had been afraid of going negative on McCain before, teh librul medja weep-in for McCain after Wes Clark said that McCain’s military experience didn’t prepare him to be Emperor of All Dimensions probably scared them off further.
There is a problem, in that Obama’s built his campaign around positive messages and possibilities — and so far it’s worked pretty well. In addition, they’ve centralized nearly all campaigning in their own offices, so the likelihood of any independent liberal 527 etc. taking on McCain is severely lowered.
Still, I think his chances are very good, but most likely it will be a narrow and seat of the pants victory. Had just a few races turned out differently, there wouldn’t have been a Democratic Congress in 2006, either, and before I whine about how it didn’t make a difference, imagine how little fun it would have been to have a President Obama facing a maniac, Southern / Western-led ultra-rightwing Republican Congress.
There is a problem, in that Obama’s built his campaign around positive messages and possibilities — and so far it’s worked pretty well.
Against a Democrat. And just barely. He’s going to get smoked in the general. Sorry to be such a downer, but Jesus the writing’s on the wall.
And yes, I am incredibly pessimistic about everything.
Brad – welcome to reality.
I’ve said since Xmas that Bombin’ Johnnie’s gonna be #44.
Either way the Pukes win.
If Obama is ‘elected,’ the composition of Congress will militate overwhelmingly against Obama/Dems doing anything to undo the Bushevik mess or perform any “reforms.” That is, presuming Pelosi, Hoyer, Emmanuel, Murtha and the rest WOULD do anything like that in the first place, a seriously dubitable proposition.
Otoh, if the bosses give it to McStain, they’ll have a (putatively) Dim Congress to blame for their inability to repair/reform…
There’s no way the fascists don’t win…
Whenever I encounter this level of pessimism, one thing sustains me: the debates. Just wait for the fucking debates.
Brad – welcome to reality.
I’m glad to see you’re proud that your side can only get elected through negative politics. Of course, I wish Democrats would learn this lesson. FDR got elected through spite, after all, and he was one of the best preznits this country has ever seen. Fuck hope! Spite the vote, bitches!
Whenever I encounter this level of pessimism, one thing sustains me: the debates. Just wait for the fucking debates.
Uh, that didn’t help Kerry. And he positively smoked Bush in the debates.
Look, American politics has nothing to do with facts, issues or reason. It’s all about making people hate the other guy more than they hate you. Read Perlstein’s NIXONLAND and you’ll see how this plays out. It works and that’s why McCain is going back to it again.
It is true that if Obama is elected, a Democratic Congress will fight against him vigorously, and if McCain is elected, a Democratic Congress will facilitate his entire agenda. And even so, far more desirable legislation and regulations and appointments will occur under Democratic control of government than a divided one.
I think it’s too early to conclude simply that because Republicans play dirty and won a lot recently by doing so that they will definitely win this time, even when the opponent is black & all. They might. I think there’s every possibility. It goes along with a lot of my ‘feel’ for how things must happen here. Yet a lot of hard-core data supports an Obama victory, as well.
Personally I think there’s every reason to be able to maintained a frightened, paranoid screamer’s optimism that Obama could win.
OK, I won’t lie, I love saying, “I told you so.” I CANNOT understand why people bought the whole unity schtick. I really cannot. Even if it was sincere, it’s basically a continuation of the unilateral disarmament behaviours of American liberals. People made the argument against Hillary that she was a divisive figure. *That* *was* *precisely* *her* *advantage*.
You *want* to take revenge for the whole impeachment business of the 90s. I know that Hillary is a relatively mainstream Democrat, but that’s all you’re going to get in the White House. Better it be one with grudges!
It seems a bit early to start getting hysterical.
A little early to throw in the towel, isn’t it?
It might be close, it might be really close, but there’s no way people are going to vote for Bush’s Third Term. If Obama can focus on that, I think he can get enough people sufficiently spiteful towards McSame. Brad’s theory would still be right…but it leads to a better result!
Jesus, man. Step back from the ledge. The polls are good. Obama’s on the upswing. He’s dealt with a boatload of slung mud and come away shiny. People (and ‘People’, hence Malkin’s rage) are getting to know him. Many will vote for him. He could still lose, but that’s why they play the games, you know?
Jeez. Hold on a sec. Calm down y’all.
I hate to get obvious, but I’m not convinced that anyone knows the outcome of the race. I’m not convinced that anyone knows the future.
An Obama win still looks quite possible to me. Not a sure thing… possible.
There you go again, obfuscating and hiding Teh Troof. You missed a very important McCain Press Release:
I guess I’m going to have to start calling him melanoma-free JiSM3.
Since July 26 (inclusive), there have been 19 McCain Press Releases.
15 of them are about Barack Obama, 2 are Town Hall announcements, one is the Mayo Clinic blurb above. So what’s the last one?
MarsThe Moon, bitches!I was pretty much convinced from about February that there was still going to be a Republican in the White House, anyway. People learn nothing.
The McCain campaign is panicking and is now trying to win the way Bush did: not by appealing to a central majority, but by dividing the country and counting on their base being a bit deeper. Throw in some electoral shenanigans in a few key states and Bush squeaked through. I doubt McCain can pull it off but it’ll be close.
The latest McCain TV ad (Obama=Paris/Britney) just reeks of desperation. I can’t see anyone not barefoot and wearing bib overalls just laughing at it.
BTW, I do hope to be proven wrong. I’m just not seeing it.
It might be close, it might be really close, but there’s no way people are going to vote for Bush’s Third Term.
I said that about Bush’s second term.
Basically, folks, I’ve given up on believing that anything positive will ever happen and have transformed myself into a cackling prophet of doom. So please, I hope y’all can keep your heads up, because I sure can’t.
The polls are decent. The “Foresight Idea Exchange” traders, who aren’t oracles, but do have money riding on their predictions, are giving a McCain win about a 34% possibility. Calm down y’all.
Except Nixon wasn’t an absolute ‘tard. We’re not squaring off against Nixon – who even then got his ass every so barely handed to him by Kennedy 8 years before that – but against Grampa Johnny. And Nixon was only squaring off against McGovern in ’72 because RFK was shot in ’68.
Was she? I saw her lining up behind that Gas Tax Holiday idea as fast as any of the Republicans. If she was in the race right now, she’d be diving hard to McCain’s flank. And it wouldn’t be his left flank.
Clintonian politics worked in ’92 because Clinton was – against all odds – able to weasle in with the right people and escape some bad press. He was charismatic, he was intelligent, and he was a respectable CinC. He didn’t win because of his ideology or because of how he successfully demonized Bush Sr. The Republicans did a great job of shooting themselves in the foot on their own and their party cracked under its own cognitive dissonance. The GOP has had to cheat like Vegas bookies for the last eight years or risk losing to repeated landslides.
People are sick to shit of the Republicans like they were getting sick to shit of the Democrats 28 years ago. This is going to be a Reverse Reagen Revolution.
Whenever I encounter this level of pessimism, one thing sustains me: the debates. Just wait for the fucking debates.
It depends. Yeah, it should be a bloodbath in favor of Obama. But Bush had his clock cleaned by both Gore and Kerry and still nearly 50% of the public still voted for him.
Fuck WordPress
All Obama’s people have to do is make a series of ads where McCain says something from 1998, and then back it with his opposite position from today. And then throw in an “I NEVER said THAT!”
The election would be over in a week, if the Dems did that.
But since the Dems are owned by the GOP, and are under orders to let the GOP win at all costs, this will never happen.
And if that doesn’t work, Diebold is always ready, willing, and able, to defraud a third presidential election.
Mandos – you love saying ‘I told you so’. Great. Keep it in your pants until you have something to ‘I told you so’ about. The election’s months away.
Why do you think the debates should be a bloodbath in favour of Obama? Debates are all about scoring the points. They require a whole lot of negativity. Does Obama have a negative game? Has he established any credibility as a thrower of punches?
Not so much, from what I’ve heard.
And, oh: HOPE.
We also might want to keep in mind Rove’s other great political strategy, aside from nasty lies, was ‘act like you’re winning’.
To this day I’m confused about the Kerry-Bush Jr. debates, because I thought Kerry handed Bush Jr. his a**, and I thought when Bush Jr. left the podium and started screaming “YOU TELL TONY BLAIR! YOU TELL TONY BLAIR!” at the moderator that people would conclude that he had lost it. But surveys at the time and a bunch of conversations I had with people indicated that an awful (emphasis on “awful”) lot of people thought Bush Jr. had won, possibly precisely because he was stupider, stubborner, louder, and used his fake Texas accent.
These people, who are betting their own money, are giving Obama’s presidentcy about a 67% chance of happening.
Yes, I know that it says, “Democratic win in either 2004 or 2008” if that’s trading at 67% now, and there was no Democratic win in 2004, that must mean they think it’s a 67% chance of Dem win in 2008.
We’ll see. Like I said, I’m calling it for McCain. You can accuse me of being premature, of course, but with no Iran attack (which might have guaranteed an Obama victory, Repub strategists will even throw neocons temporarily under the bus, nice bit of jiu-jitsu), McMaverick McCain will BBQ and snark his way into the White House.
I’m sorry, but it’s always been about race. This is about America voting for a black male president.
Or not.
All the machine needs to do is provide cover for racist whites to feel justified in voting against Obama. The crypto-islamic/Angela-Davis-for-wife/militant-black-church smear is doing nicely. Whether McCain has a pulse is beside the point.
Oh, and don’t forget the PUMA factor.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hFOuKS6pITZqcBVcGFn0zssEZxXwD927L0900
I’m doing another premature “I told you so” on that one.
I’m hoping this is a Braveheart battle sequence. Obama is Braveheart, and the spears are negative attacks on McCain. Obama’s yelling, “Hold! Hold!” as McCain’s Negative Horses (led by Rove) get closer and closer.
ANY DAY NOW, Obama will stop yelling “Hold!” and the spears will come up.
ANY DAY NOW….
“nearly 50% of the public still voted for him.”
No, they didn’t. Between laws intended to prevent people from voting, similar to this new Indiana ID law (laws intended to prevent legitimate voters from getting in while doing NOTHING to prevent non-existent voter fraud), and kicking Democrats off the voter rolls just because they are Democrats, as was done in Florida, combined with openly rigged electronic voting machines, and finally having 80% of the US vote ‘tallied’ by Diebold and ES&S, the electoral process in America is totally corrupted by the GOP.
Exit polls ARE accurate: Gore did win 2000, by a wide margin, and Kerry won in 2004 as well. But as long as Gallup fudges their pre-election poll results, it is plausible to the gullible Fox News Americans for them to believe that opposite of reality: that theri losing anti-American candidate ‘won’.
Don’t forget that every media outlet in the world was showing Gore ahead, far enough to call the election for him. And then one GOP operative (was it Jeb Bush’s nephew?) called Fox News and lied to them, giving them the excuse to hand it to Bush. The rest of the conservative-controlled main stream media then followed Fox. Finally the Supreme Court handed the nation to the election loser with no basis in any law known to man, and we got the president we didn’t elect.
People are sick to shit of the Republicans like they were getting sick to shit of the Democrats 28 years ago. This is going to be a Reverse Reagen Revolution.
You wish. Heck, I desperately wish. This ain’t. I can see it for the House and Senate, much good may it do everyone considering how poorly they’ve performed. Beyond that, I see no sign that the Reagan Revolution has been an issue. Certainly, Obama hasn’t made it an issue.
Not attacking Iran (and they likely aren’t before the election) was the best move the (R) could have made. They can always attack it later!
You’re right and you’re wrong Brad.
Remember in 2004 a lot of Americans did not want to admit that the War in Iraq was a horrible, horrible mistake. Throw good money after the bad and good lives after the good and all that. And yes, a good part of an election is not about hope but about fear of what the other guy will do. It’s enough to keep McCain breathing and yes maybe enough for him to win. Dunno.
I think that the thing that gives me a bit of hope about Obama is he doesn’t shy away from fighting back. Heck, he even mocks his opponents. And don’t minimize his bare win over Clinton. Yes it was a bare win, but remember she was supposed to win in a walk. She was supposed to crush him on Super Tuesday, and he took his lumps and had a plan to win. Which he followed through with. So far in the Presidential campaign, he seems to be keeping a nice conservative pace, while McCain would have done better to hire the keystone cops
Jesus people, it is July. No one has any idea how this thing gets played out in November. Brad’s pessimism has no more basis than anyone else’s optimism. If I wanted to hear mindless guesses about who might win in November, I’d turn on the TV talking heads.
We still have basically the same voting systems that we had in 2000 & 2004.
I predict that the exit poll to reported result ratio will be ridiculous.
Just six days ago, the Quinnipiac poll put Obama still with a slight advantage, though McCain was up somewhat in four states.
Now, all that said, I think we should consider the possibility that the USA may not be ready for a black president. But I’m not sure, frankly.
Sadly, no!
Yeah, the writing’s on the wall…that McCain keeps throwing bullshit at Obama, and Obama keeps using ninja skills to swat it away. Seriously, what’s stuck to this guy? Boy, that Reverend Wright thing lasted! Yeah, Bittergate was the beginning of the end! Even McCain’s media fawners are calling him out now on the won’t-visit-troops nonsense.
It’ll be closer than it should (and it should be 100%-0%), but Barry’s doing just fine. Rather be him than McCain at this point.
McGovern, Kerry, Dukakis — not one of them at any point had either the lead or the organization that Obama has today. Yeah, he could blow it. But he hasn’t done so yet, so stop acting like a bunch of No, Quarter! commentors.
This is an Economy election, Mandos, not a Foreign Policy election. Simplified, yes, but generally true.
Not attacking Iran (and they likely aren’t before the election) was the best move the (R) could have made. They can always attack it later!
In reality, we are already attacking Iran.
Also, I think airstrikes on Iran might rally the Republican chances, not hurt them. It’s not always easy to see how military action will rebound.
Right. After her super duper divisive powers enabled her to lose the primary popular vote and the primary delegate count against a complete rookie named “Barack Hussein Obama,” her super duper divisive powers would have worked out mega doubleplus okey-dokey against the FOX/AM News/Op-Ed noise machine.
Got it. 10-4.
Well, I could give all the rationalizations,
Polls are good, forecasting models are good, people want change.
In 2000, at this time, algore was trailing badly and despite the media coverage, won the vote.
In 2004, at this time, Kerry was trailing slightly and despite a huge Sept. 11 bounce, finished slightly behind.
Obama is much less despised by the Press than previous Dem nominees.
And as the primaries showed, Obama can produce new voters. Huge numbers of people are genuinely motivated and inspired by him. When’s the last time that was true for any politician?
The fact is, Mandos, even I’ve given up on the GOP this year. Relax.
Seriously, calm down. I live in deep in the heart of Red State America and believe me, things are different this year. Different than they were in ’04, when John Kerry never really had a shot against a “War President” who hadn’t yet had his Waterloo in New Orleans. One single year later, and the American people would not have re-elected W, not a chance in hell. And now it’s 4 years later and things have gotten worse, and their choices are between the young guy who rejects everything W stands for, and the old prick who things W is just aces. In fact, what the hell – Obama will win this election. You can take that to the bank. To the motherfucking bank, in fact.
First, let me tell all of you liberals at S,N! how much I’m enjoying this thread. It’s as delightful as Mark Ames’ rant from 2004 that Brad linked to in the main article. Forty years of collectivist identity politics has brought you to this state, and you deserve it.
I am particular enjoying the cognitive dissonance by people like DN Nation, who wonder why the polls are so close and then blithely say things like
Carry on, liberals. I know you’ll be back in triumphant denial very soon, but this dose of reality is fun to watch.
Jeez Looeez, it’s still spring training. The season doesn’t open until after Labor Day, fa chrissake.
All predictions, I-told-you-so’s, and expressions of despair (or triumph) are prematoor.
The Obama people know everything we know: about the negativity, the spite, the Rove tactic, all of it. There’ s plenty of time to address it in Sept. and Oct.
Until then, the O people can harvest clips of the very negative McC ads that ensadden Brad, and compile them into a series of ads showing Grampy is just a bitter old man.
Obama is perfectly capable of sharpshooting zingers on the fly–he had some great off-the-cuff remarks to Hillary–and will do so in the debates and interviews.
Their politics-of-negativity isn’t the problem, Brad. Their gaming-the-system and rigging-the-machines is.
Won’t be a part of a party that engages in the same shit the Republicans have.
Just won’t. Sorry.
And yeah, it’s still July. Let’s tone it down here.
Yesterday I instituted a new rule in my extended family. Anytime one of them forwards me an email about Obama that isn’t fact-checked against, at a minimum, snopes, I will send the campaign $25. (Prompted by an email from my folks screaming how we can’t afford this man to be president with all his tax raising!) rule two gets instituted today. Every time an otherwise sensible liberal blogger gets all despondent and starts decrying “Obama’s going to lose”, I’m volunteering an hour to the campaign. My cynicism stops when its not funny anymore. And then it becomes time to get to work and make this happen. We may still lose but it won’t be from lack of trying.
PS Because that was too damn serious:
“Was it over, when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?” etc…
It’s deja vu, all over again! And it’s driving me crazy cuz it will probably work.
This new McCain strategy is not just a replay of the Bush/Rove attacks on Kerry for being elitist, unmanly, French and arrogant, it’s also a replay of the arrogant, robotic, condescending, “he says he invented the internet” attacks on Gore. The $400 Edwards haircut/Breck Girl meme would have played out the same way if he had won. They did vary the attacks against Hillary Clinton by portraying her as a “bit*h” and castrating but it was all in the same playbook of making the election about phony cartoon characters that they created.
The GOP apparatchiks learned the lesson that P.T. Barnum was right, there’s a sucker born every minute and they’ve made a living selling the same snake oil over and over.
The Bush/Rove/McCain GOP team is just a one-trick pony and if you liked 2000 and 2004, you’ll love 2008!
Oh, and just as a note to anyone… Generally calling an election three months in advance is not a good idea. (Saying it is Obama’s to lose or McCain’s to lose is a bit different though). Relax, it’s July. The only people paying sharp attention to the campaigns are politically active people (who represent a very small percentage of the swing vote).
“nearly 50% of the public still voted for him.”
No, they didn’t. ….
I agree with you, Rutherford. What I meant was that enough people voted for Bush to get him to forty-something percent and that put him close enough to steal the rest and put him over the top.
Not a reaction to the Reagan Revolution, but a reverse (converse?). Reagan didn’t go negative on Carter. He put together an appeal that did two important things, he put together a coalition of deomgrpahics that had traditionally not voted together and had a vision (self-deluded) mostly that made him appear far more presidential by comparison. It seems Obama understands that if you want the sea-change type of election you can’t fall in to the old model of competing negatives. At best this model has only produced the slightest of pluralities for the Democratic candidate. He is at least smart enough to look at the Reagan model after the Gore and Kerry models failed them in the ability to get elected if not get the majority of the electoral votes.
“who wonder why the polls are so close”
It’s obvious why the polls are so close, you drooling cockmonkey. It’s cose because Obama is a remarkably strong candidate. So much so that he is in the lead desite being: (1) a relative noob; and (2) not “white”. Amazingly enough, a lot of this country’s citizens won’t vote for a black guy. Not so amazingly (as it’s been an explicit attractor since Lee Atwater), most of those folks are republicans. Google “Richard M. Nixon” and “southern strategy,” you drooling retard.
What is he going to say? How is he going to respond to McCain except with “Nu-uh!” and “I know you are but what am I?”
McCain’s punches are weak, his popularity is tanking, and he’s got no issue to park his street cred. Obama just leans back and points out the obvious
It’s cute the way you and the Ole Perfessor and others have adopted this war cry. McCain ’08! He’s not losing as bad as you liberals say he should!
Woo. Fuckin’ metal, dude.
So you’re saying that the Jeremiah Wright issue stuck to Obama? Are you serious?
McCain will go ballistic and punch a sweet little old lady or cute baby or some other hapless innocent on camera between now and November, maybe even more than once.
Carry on, liberals. I know you’ll be back in triumphant denial very soon, but this dose of reality is fun to watch.
Tell ya what. We’ll trade you your premature triumph for our triumphant denial and call it even. Now get the fuck out of here.
It seems to me that a landslide in congress and a Republican Pres might be pretty good, what with the Second Great Depression right around the corner.
Then maybe we can murder the GOP once and for all.
Seriously? This is why people have grown to loathe Democrats over the years. We can be leading in the polls with an attractive young candidate who fills stadiums, and we will talk about how badly we’re going to get our asses kicked. It’s so unbelievably pathetic. It is impossible to respect people like that.
Why do you want to be pathetic, Brad? Why are you helping inbred little shits like The Truth perpetuate the image of liberals as ineffectual little pussies who are destined to be trounced?
And if poll numbers and forecasting doesn’t melt the cold pessimistic funk, here’s another reason a black man will be in the White House next year – Money.
McCain is being out raised by a factor of 2 to 5. At the end of June, that was also the ratio of cash on hand.
WordPress is the Byzantine Empire of regressive politics.
Can I haz comments?
OK, so should we a) go eat worms, or b) curl up and die?
Seriously – why the despair? Is it that McCain has the All-Powerful Rove batting for his team these days? Did the fake trolls finally convince you?
DN Nation: Let me put it this way. Obama ran a wonderful campaign against Clinton. But the primary is not the general. The campaign Obama ran was brilliantly fine-tuned against Hillary Clinton, exploiting a lot of strange cultural phenomena surrounding the Clintons and particularly around Hillary herself. Also some weaknesses of her campaign that really only applied to the primaries.
In that, yes, Obama was very good at defeating The Clinton Machine.
I did not believe then, nor do I believe now, that the kind of campaign he ran then would be nearly so effective in the general. Conversely, I do believe that the weaknesses of Clinton’s primary campaign would not have mattered so much in the general.
The way the primary turned out, in any case, created grudges that I told you would matter, and apparently do.
Economy shmeconomy. The whole point of the Maverick Meme is to neutralize McCain’s disadvantages on domestic issues. And the weakness of Congress neutralizes a whole lot of things either way.
1972? Seriously? If you really feel that way, you should be making some wagers. Intrade, for example, puts a McCain win at 36.1% chance (let alone a blowout). There’s a fortune to be made here, if you’re so confident of a McCain win.
This institutionalized pessimism in the Democratic Party is getting annoying.
Nope. Wrong-O. This is different. BIG different.
The difference is the catastrophe that is and has been bush/cheney.
The difference is war and deficit and energy costs and venal corporatist policies that people only will accept if they at least BELIEVE they’re getting their piece of the pie.
Obama will be elected in November – not because of anything he or McCain actually do, but because the dissatisfaction with bush/cheney is so high.
Now, whether an Obama administration can or WILL make an iota of a difference is another discussion. But you can rest assured that there will be one, so I guess we’ll find out…
mikey
You think mccain is going to win? You’re fucking nuts. Look, Obama is going to have to cut open a baby and eat it on national television to lose this election. sidney mccain is barely holding on and his numbers will only get worse. This election is Obama’s to lose and trust me, his organization has discipline that shames karl rove (and all that implies).
Obama will win. Worry not.
I am usually not sanguine about these things (federal-level electoral contests between the GOP and the party that isn’t the GOP), but I’m not worried about a McCain victory this November. Maybe I’m naive and overly optimistic, but instead of ’72, I would say consider ’52.
I had in my heart of hearts given up on the (D) by about February in no small part due to the odd intellectual complacency of a significant number of Obama’s supporters. The belief that a linear advantage in fundraising and youth enthusiasm and the weakness of Bush was going make this easy also led people to dismiss constituencies that needed to be placated. Yes, placated.
Even if Obama wins, this should have been a cakewalk from start to finish. It doesn’t appear to be a cakewalk to me now. Not like it apparently did to some people during the primaries. Unlike the PUMA brigade, I don’t wish for Obama to lose; that’s why I’m calling myself ITYS.
*Reverend rips off collar* It’s ALL OVER, PEOPLE!!!
My friends, it’s as simple as this.
The Obama folks have squandered every opportunity to attack this Buffoon over the past months.
Meanwhile fast-forward to after the conventions, the McSame gang by then will have successfully portrayed Obama as an anti-Israel, Muslim-lovin’, Fag-Huggin’, Harvard educated, latte-sippin’, NASCAR-hatin’, Black Guy married to the Cadillac-drivin’ Mean Mamma.
Issues, What Issues?
tigrismus said, July 31, 2008 at 17:19
McCain will go ballistic and punch a sweet little old lady or cute baby or some other hapless innocent on camera between now and November, maybe even more than once.
should that eventuate, then watch out NYC, cuz w/in a week, there’ll be another “terra” attack…
I repeat: if Obama is permitted to prevail (not at ALL the odd-on choice), he’ll have the same congressional leadership as now. The array of catastrophes the Busheviks will have left behind will require a super-majority of REAL Dims–not those horse-shit Bush- and BlueDawgs–to set anywhere near to rights.
Post-partisanship, my ass. Unlike the duplicitous Dims, the Pukes can be counted upon to do EVERYTHING in their power to embarrass Obama, and the Dims, and thwart “change,” even if it were actually on the new agenda. They’ll have their eyes firmly focused on the ’10 cycle from DAY 1.
The pukes, thereby, will be able to both discredit both the Diims and ‘uppity’ minorities. Win/Win/Win/Win…..
Yes, it’s true. Dirty politics and constant bashing of your enemies always works.
Which, of course, is why the 19-0 Patriots won the Super Bowl.
Yes, precisely, bayville. Hopey McUnity is a great meme for cutting off the Clintons. Hillary couldn’t really strike back on that one.
For McCain, not so much.
But unlike some people, I think it’s more than just racism that is to blame.
A couple of examples of what I think (or maybe hope and then dress up my wishes as reasoned consideration) national the trend is. Before the Stevens’ indicted was handed down, the Democrats seriously thought they could defeat him and Young, Alaska’s rep in the House. Second, they may have a shot at both Díaz-Balart brothers. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen looks secure because she’s not insane on domestic, social issues and because her office is very good at constituent service.
Which, of course, is why the 19-0 Patriots won the Super Bowl.
is it TOOOOO obvious to remind you the Patsies dint lose because of their advertising campaign?
they lost cuz the giants beat ’em in the trenches.
dims don’t do trench warfare.
Comment that links to Larry Sabato’s site: green light.
Comment that links to New York Times: red light.
Even if Obama wins, this should have been a cakewalk from start to finish. It doesn’t appear to be a cakewalk to me now.
So, you imagined a cakewalk, there wasn’t one… thus, reality must obviously be at fault.
I don’t mean to be snide.. well, not THAT snide.. but this is pretty loopy reasoning, here. No campaign is a cakewalk. NONE.
The repukes slimed Gore, they slimed Kerry, but Obama came up through Chicago politics. Like Bill Clinton, he knows how to win a knife fight while smiling. McCain will start losing blood and never see or feel the blade.
No shit.
The Republican party, in my lifetime, became a juggernaut by uniting a tiny, well-off minority who though FDR was a class traitor with a larger group who saw LBJ as a race traitor.
The former hate everything they can’t steal (like social security), while the latter hate everything outside their trailer park.
They hate this country. Just look what they’ve done to it.
.
1. Relax.
2. DO something.
There is a place for snark (this is it) but that’s for recreation. Yes, a quarter of the voters still support the moron in chief and another fifth probably don’t want to admit their buyer’s remorse … but it ain’t over. My money’s on Obama winning big, but it won’t happen if folks just sit back and wait for someone else to do it. The campaign IS doing “trench work” (better than any other Dems in generations) — grab a shovel.
is it TOOOOO obvious to remind you the Patsies dint lose because of their advertising campaign?
they lost cuz the giants beat ‘em in the trenches.
dims don’t do trench warfare.
Um, yeah.
Hint: Obama’s winning THAT battle, too.
Page 3 of 3 —
To accomplish that, Obama’s campaign is assembling what would be the largest field operation in the history of American politics. Advertising and campaign communications will be important and debate performances will be critical, but the Obama campaign is investing heavily in the importance of organizing voters and getting them to the polls on Nov. 4.
It’s a major departure from the 2004 Democratic game plan in which the ground organization was split and sometimes duplicated between the Senator John F. Kerry-Democratic Party operation and a group called America Coming Together, financed primarily by wealthy liberal activists and labor unions. ACT spent about $80 million and had 300 employees and 1,400 paid canvassers working in 17 key states.
But, yeah, keep talking it down. Only makes folks like me work harder, because we know either you’re not on our side or we can’t count on you.
Geez. You guys just feel like you need something to worry about.
80% on the wrong track
23% bush approval rating
consumer confidence bumping up against all-time lows
Forclosures up
Inflation up
Energy costs UP
If there was ever a situation where people would vote for ANYTHING that wasn’t the status quo it’s today. Go ahead an believe that people will vote for McCain. I am certain that if Obama is still with us in november, he’ll be the next president.
I’m just not so certain that is such a wonderful solution to the woes what ail us. So much of america’s problems are systemic and terminal, I’m personally of the opinion that they can’t be fixed. They certainly can’t be fixed by fiddling around the margins. And that’s Obama. We don’t need ‘a new kind of politics’. We need a benign dictator who will force fundamental structural changes in the system, the laws and the economy. Build down the military radically. Stop wasting money on the war on drugs. Stop wasting money on corporate welfare. Start a HUGE government/research/private sector energy R&D program. Start a HUGE program to figure out where and how America is going to generate wealth in the next twenty years and enabling growth in those areas. Start taking apart the system that creates the necessity for deficit spending. Stop dividing up the nations of the world into “us” and “them” and act only as a force for peace and prosperity for all.
And it’ll NEVER happen….
mikey
Does no one remember that the conventions always turn the race upside down. large numbers of people change their minds after each convention. No, it doesn’t make sense in a rational way, but Dukakis was up by 14% whole points after his convention. Cinton completely turned it around at the convention. There’s no way to call the tenor of the race before it has actually started. I know McCain is trying, but what else can he do? The people on board are just throw shit against the wall until they get some sort of idea about what they are really going to do. This is not the campaign.
My money’s on Obama winning big, but it won’t happen if folks just sit back and wait for someone else to do it.
Well, there is that, but it’s much more fun to pule and whine and bitch and piss and moan and screech and carry on about Republican inevitability. “The writing’s on the wall!”
Brad has convinced me. Like that article he linked says, Kerry doesn’t have a prayer. I’m just trying to decide if I should be outraged by Chappaquiddick, or save my energy for arugula shopping.
“But, yeah, keep talking it down. Only makes folks like me work harder, because we know either you’re not on our side or we can’t count on you.”
you got the source codes for the voting machines and tabulators?
got the keys to the voting machine warehouses?
got control of the state cops?
infiltrated the minutemen?
no? pffff
A few notes:
1) Obama is not winning by enough is a pretty stupid argument. If he’s consistently ahead in polls in spite of the muck thrown at him, well, that is a good thing.
2) While I understand a desire to hit the Republicans as hard as they hit Dems, it’s Obama’s plan. Seems to be working out fairly well so far. If he fails or seems to be failing, then yes by all means say “I told you so.” Until then, offer criticism sure. Tell him what you’d do in his place, go for it. Declare it a lost cause? When he’s ahead in polls and electoral vote predictions (see for example here), umm, that makes my head hurt.
3) Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Montana, Indiana, Nevada, Colorado are all in play. Heck McCain seems to be in trouble in North and South Dakota. Notice that these are Red States? Clearly the fact that Michigan and New Hampshire are McCain’s only two pickup opportunities at this point is good news for John McCain.
So, you imagined a cakewalk, there wasn’t one… thus, reality must obviously be at fault.
I don’t mean to be snide.. well, not THAT snide.. but this is pretty loopy reasoning, here. No campaign is a cakewalk. NONE.
The problem is that it’s worse than not a cakewalk, because none of the obvious disadvantages suffered by McCain and listed repeatedly here have kicked in or are going to kick in, and some of them appear to be diluting.
It’s working out for Obama the way I thought it would. The same tactics you use to defeat the Clintons cannot be so easily used even against a very weak Republican. The primary is a meta campaign—the fact that you can raise money and bring in crowds IS your platform. The fact that you can do these things in the general is NOT a platform.
I was pretty much convinced from about February that there was still going to be a Republican in the White House, anyway. People learn nothing.
Mandos, I’m not meaning to pick on you in particular, but your quote just sums it up so completely.
If you want to give up, FINE. Go home and watch TV, get fat, get stupid… and STFU about how it’s all in vain.
We. Cannot. Give. Up. On. Getting. Obama. Elected. Four more years of this shit with a senile bush clone will absolutely kill this country. Supreme Court. The freakin middle east. We cannot leave this stuff up to McCain and we cannot let the evil freaking bastards that are running McCain’s campaign win.
Montana in play? I assure you, despite what the polls say today, this is a pipe dream of people who thought that in a single electoral cycle they could evade the Swing State Strategy. The Swing State Strategy is a long-term loser, but it is also one that is systemically entrenched can’t be abandoned or evaded so easily.
gbear: I don’t pronounce Doom lightly. This belief came about by observing the choices and actions of Obama’s campaign and his supporters, not because I reflexively believe that McCain is inevitable. If you had asked me in December or January I’d have said that the (R) nominee was toast anyway, regardless of which (D) took the nom.
I don’t also believe you should give up. Small chances for marginal benefits on a global scale are still worth it to those who put in the potentially futile effort.
It is the economy, it is always the economy. It’s the money in poeple’s pockets; nothing else really counts in the US. The Republicans looted the country, and now the money’s gone. Most of it has evaporated and what’s left is in the hands of a tiny percentage. Nobody know what’s going to happen next, but it won’t be pretty.
I got the blues so bad this morning, just want to hang my head and cry
You know I’d be feeling so much better if Obama cakewalked in July
1993:
Republicans need to leave Americans to rot. If Americans realized they should be getting something in return for their taxes and for obeying the nation’s laws, the parasite party would lose its ability to loot the country.
Kristol understood that. Fix healthcare and “government is always the problem” doesn’t sell any more.
.
Uh, that didn’t help Kerry. And he positively smoked Bush in the debates.
I totally disagree. He may have smoked Bush on the issues, but that never matters. What mattered was that Kerry came across as stiff and dull on-camera.
I found Kerry to be cringe-inducingly unwatchable during the 2004 campaign, and I agreed almost 100% with him on the issues. Had the same feelings back with Dukakis (Massachussettes should stop putting up candidates not named “Kennedy”). It’s a lot easier to smear an uncharismatic candidate.
A big advantage Obama has is his charisma. And McCain has very little, despite what the media may wish. The debates helped Bill Clinton, and I’m pretty sure they’ll help Obama, too.
It is still very early to be getting despondent. And I’m Mr. Despondency! Yes, McCain will get over 40% of the popular vote, maybe 45%; there are that many utter fools and self-deluded morons in this country. Who do you think has been running the place the past 7 years? But enough people now know the reality, as it has been whacking them in the face for the past 6 years and now the pain is starting to be felt: these Republicans don’t give a crap about you or your problems. They’re all about themselves and their own problems. After 9/11, 5 years in Iraq with no “victory” in sight, Katrina, Rita, the Midwest floods this year, the FEMA trailers saga, no WMDs in Iraq, political hackery in civil service hiring practices, US Attorneys being fired for political reasons, and on and on and on and on…there are people who do care about these things, and enough of them now know about what has been going on that the only way McCain wins is if our side doesn’t show up at the polls. Literally, all we have to do is show up, and Obama wins. The end. So getting all despondent about how America is a nation of gun-toting bible-thumping retards so why bother is just playing into their hands.
This site is all about exposing and ridiculing the simpletons who have been running this country into the ground and their cheerleaders. You’re doing a great job. To borrow the Malfunctioning Robot’s phraseology:
We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends!
This site is all about exposing and ridiculing the simpletons who have been running this country into the ground and their cheerleaders.
Not anymore, apparently.
Mandos, I was unaware that Montana was considered a swing state. And what electoral strategy are you exactly proposing anyways? Personally, I’m not advocating anything. I’ll leave that to the professionals. I just think it is a good thing that Obama is ahead (or McCain is in trouble) in many places that George Bush won and are considered Red States. The 2004 election was close. 18 electoral votes to be exact. That’s winning Florida or Ohio. Or Virginia, Montana and New Mexico. Or Colorado and North Carolina.
But what do I know, maybe the fact that polls have Obama threatening or in the lead in several red states is good news for John McCain.
But unlike some people, I think it’s more than just racism that is to blame.
What is it, then?
This election should not be this close, not after the past eight years, not with the current economic crisis, not with the superannuated Republican opponent bereft of ideas and promising more of the same. No way in hell.
An identical white Obama with the same schtick, credentials and campaign would have wrapped this up already.
Shorter Mandos:
Dude, the gloon-n-doom I-told-you-so routine runs a bit stale when Obama is, you know, winning.
dammit, misspelled Massachussetts
You know what will help you feel better? Go over to pollster.com
Every time Obama is down two points (but still ahead) the media will hyperventilate. They need drama. It’s how they make money.
BUT if you look at the trendlines, Obama is gaining in just about every state that he puts money into. He is increasing his leads in VA, OH and PA, he just pulled ahead in FL, he is within striking distance in IN, TX, NC, and even AZ. I’m not saying that he will win all of these states, but it is not as dismal as it looks.
For the record, Obama is hitting back with his own ad campaign.
Obama Response Ad
He’s been much more aggressive than Kerry or Gore before him. And he’s been taking his campaign to the ground since December when he was gearing up against Clinton.
Barack Obama’s Presidential Campaign is nothing like the campaigns run in ’00 and ’04. The GOP dinosaurs just aren’t equipped to deal with this kind of political ground work. They’ve gotten lazy, they’ve gotten sloppy, and they’ve given up a great deal of their popularity in selling their agenda.
They are lining up for a major whooping in the Fall.
Unlike the PUMA brigade, I don’t wish for Obama to lose; that’s why I’m calling myself ITYS.
Yeah, sure you don’t, ITYS (I’m Transparent, You See?). Your candidate lost the primary and conceded almost two months ago. Get over it. BTW, who were you predicting would win the Dem nomination prior to February?
Re Montana: what I meant was that some armchair strategists think that they can turn (R) states into swing states, and thus avoid “pandering” to some of the traditional swing states. There’s apparently people who write books about winning without the south, etc.
Chris: What it is is exactly what Brad said it was. Spite, people, spite. The Unity schtick that doesn’t work for a lot of people. And so on. Lots of weaknesses in the Obama camp.
Have I gotten the banhammer for posting O/T so many times?
Dude, the gloon-n-doom I-told-you-so routine runs a bit stale when Obama is, you know, winning.
Didn’t you read the post? McGovern is fucked.
Why does Sadly, No! hate hope? Is it because Sadly, No! hates America?
Lawnguylander: I wavered between Hillary and Obama, especially after Edwards predictably failed to materialize, but then Hillary’s internet weakness made itself manifest and it became clear that she would have a hard slog and likely lose.
I won’t pretend that I don’t think it was a mistake, and still do. I Told You So. The trend is down.
And whoever said that Obama has charisma and McCain doesn’t? I also won’t pretend that find Obama boring. Behind the befuddledness, McCain has that calculated viciousness that wins elections. Unity schmunity.
I hope to be proven wrong, and you can all ITYS me. I’m in the “Democrats aren’t that much better” camp, but within that “aren’t that much”, there is still a “some” that affects thousands of lives.
I agree with Brad — and Mandos too [!!!]
I didn’t like Hillary, thought her policies were to the right of Obama’s (which isn’t saying much), didn’t prefer her. But the one good thing she had going for her, which even Obama agreed was a powerful trait, was that she was willing to kick wingnuts in the teeth. Spite can be a powerful motivator for good, too, and the hope that a Dem president would start throwing these fucking assholes in jail is a vote-getting proposition. Needless to say, Obama ain’t gonna go that route, not even with stealth. Cass Sunstein will tell him that the urge to make paybacks hell is just a psychotic desire of internet leftwing extremists who self-insulate in their own little cliques — and Mr. Positive, Mr. Bipartisan, Mr. Transcendant, Mr. Endorse Joe Lieberman will listen, not that he needs much prodding.
I do think Obama will probably win, though barely. I hope so. But this thing could have easily turned out so much better; and his presidency will be an exercise in not bickering and fighting over who killed who. He’ll say words to the effect that “our long national nightmare is over,” and the wingnuts will, in response, resent even more (and resolve even more to destroy) the fools who give them the get out of jail free cards.
Er, I won’t pretend that I don’t find Obama boring.
You can win a primary on meta…
Massachussettes should stop putting up white candidates not named “Kennedy”
Fixed.
Here’s why yesterday looked like a turning point to me.
I was riding my bike and running errands. I live in Lancaster, Calif., in northern Los Angeles County. It is just south of Edwards Air Force Base and the whole area is dominated by the military and the aerospace industry. Very conservative. Very, very conservative. When anybody’s military flags get knocked down, they ignore that it was the windiest day of the year and write letters to the editor about the mean and evil anti-war protesters and how much they hate the military. The letters page is full of gibberish about anchor babies, crazy Michelle Obama, the liberal activist Supreme Court and crazy environmentalists.
I’m originally from rural Indiana, and I still have friends there. My best friend and I used to argue about which of us lived in the more conservative, but he conceded to me about six or seven months ago because blind, lockstep conservative whackery was receding in Indiana. No one was defending in Bush anymore, the Bush stickers and posters were disappearing, and very unexpected people were say unexpected things about Bush, how much they don’t like McCain, and saying they were considering Obama.
And now it’s happening in Lancaster, Calif., as well. I lost count of the Obama for President stickers and signs I saw as I was driving around. Yeah, the nutcases are still shipping their mindless drivel – much like Troof – but they seem to be phoning it in, and we are getting more letters about GOP gibberish. The smart people are getting a little bolder as they watch the McCain meltdown.
If it’s happening HERE, it’s happening EVERYWHERE.
That’s the truth.
Those are the facts.
Well cripes, people. If you think that the Obama campaign is fucking up and that it’s so hopeless, why don’t you go and DO SOMETHING about it, like write some letters or volunteer your time and/or money to the campaign?
This whining about how fucked we inevitably are (especially when things are looking this good!? FUCK!) is unproductive and incredibly pathetic.
gbear: I don’t pronounce Doom lightly. This belief came about by observing the choices and actions of Obama’s campaign and his supporters
You should observe the McCain campaign.
Incorrect. Look at what happened after the Berlin speech. Obama’s ability to bring in a cheering crowd of foreigners was a triumph. Even the media gasbags had to grudgingly admit that he looked very Presidential. Even MELANIE MORGAN admitted on the McLaughlin Group that Obama had been “flawless” on his overseas junket, and she’s a complete GOP hack. Meanwhile all McCain can do is screw up attack after attack and look old. Everyone in America can tell that McCain is having “senior moments,” despite the press glossing over them- especially other seniors. Yeah, his growth was benign…THIS time. Yeah, he’s a war hero…but how many times can you go to that well, when increasing numbers of voters WEREN’T EVEN ALIVE when he was doing his heroism?
You don’t HAVE to do much more than raise money and draw crowds, when your opposition is The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight.
…why don’t you go and DO SOMETHING about it, like write some letters or volunteer your time and/or money to the campaign?
Sorry, nope. Despair. It’s all useless, because Obama’s not winning by enough.
You don’t HAVE to do much more than raise money and draw crowds, when your opposition is The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight.
Y’all think so, and I hope you’re right. But The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight has a great track record of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, starting with Barry Goldwater. I think I’ve said all I had to say about this, and it’s time to do something more important: lunch.
Barry Goldwater lost
What it is is exactly what Brad said it was. Spite, people, spite.
How did that work for Hillary in the primary? Or are you saying that spite only works when you are wooing independents and undecideds in the national election?
Look, I’m not saying a vicious campaign on Obama’s part wouldn’t be preferable or more satisfying. I do contend, however, that a white “unity” Obama would be so far ahead that this thread would not even exist.
fine with me, Obama ain’t all that anyway.
What the dems need to do is vote in more and BETTER dems.
first on the list is to toss out nancy.
*puts lunch down for l’esprit de l’escalier*
And his ideology won and we are all reaping the fruits of that. Victory, one way or another, was snatched from the jaws of some form of defeat.
Somehow, the (D) party didn’t replicate the Goldwater experience with McGovern’s defeat. That’s the other problem with Obama. Mr. Hopey McUnity has explicitly campaigned on NOT being a kick in the teeth to prior ideologies.
Defeat from victory.
In fact, I counter Brad’s McGovern map with
I worry about what I hear from my Mom in North Carolina. Some of her friends simply refuse to vote for a black man. It drives my Mom nuts, she thinks Obama is great, but she worries about other (mostly elderly??) Democrats that just can’t get past his race. I want Obama to pull well ahead in the polls because I think there are a lot of folks who, when push comes to shove, won’t be able to pull that lever for a black man.
This whole thread is a bunch of sad sack crap. I’m so sorry the Dem candidate is only winning by single digits, Jesus. I guess defeatism dies hard. It’s OK, everyone–Karl Rove does not live under your bed anymore.
Jake, something is under there, I can see the glowing eyes at night…
This whole thread stinks of No Quarter. I say kill it before it breeds.
This election should not be this close
What election? They’re called polls, I believe, and are subject to change. After the final vote count get back to me on how close it was.
I’m predicting Obama gets 52% of the popular vote and wins most of the states (and it’s only going to be that close because of the large number of racist fucks out there). Status quo is simply not going to get it done this year. If the spite vote determines the outcome there will be a Democrat in the Black, er White House next year, because there are too many people who want to fuck over the GOP.
Now, as Mikey says, that’s not going to fix everything that needs fixing. But it will sure as hell beat the alternative.
Somehow, the (D) party didn’t replicate the Goldwater experience with McGovern’s defeat. That’s the other problem with Obama. Mr. Hopey McUnity has explicitly campaigned on NOT being a kick in the teeth to prior ideologies.
Yes, because the Democratic campaign strategy of telling large numbers of voters that they’re idiots (or at least letting the GOP convince everyone that they were doing so) for having supported a Republican candidate in a prior election was highly successful in 2004.
I’m going to give Obama the benefit of the doubt; right now, his message appears to be working. Count on him to build up a message of hope, unity, blah blah blah, and to start kicking McCain in the teeth. I expect that he aims to pull out the rug out from under the Republican meme of Democratic contempt for the average citizen, which will allow him to pummel the crap out of McCain without losing voters. In fact, it’ll win him the election.
That’s my optimistic fantasy. Maybe I’ll volunteer some time this fall to try and make it happen.
WTF is this? I come to this site to make fun of the wingers…not to read shit posted as if you’ve become one.
STFU and donate AND get out there to register new voters you whiny SOB.
Jesus…are you Chicken Little now?? DO something instead of acting like a baby and waiting for someone else to fix things.
There hasn’t been a presidential race since 1988 that the Dems haven’t had an even-odds or better chance in. That includes that last election, against a sitting president in wartime. And even in ’88, Dukakis had the lead fairly late before bombing.
So let’s just say that history would indicate Obama’s got at least a 50-50 chance in November — and that’s leaving out the crap state of the economy, his own charisma, McCain’s senility, the fucked up War on Terror and all the other myriad crap emerging from the past eight years that tilts the scale towards the new guy.
A 50-50 chance. At least. So how in the fuck is it that some people here are suggesting we psychically pack it all in? In July? It’s like conceding a fucking coin flip before it happens, fer crissakes!
Are we that down in the mouth already? Fuck, man, winners are supposed to LOVE these pressure-cooker situations. Not run away from them with their tails between their legs. Did Michael Jordan get scared before he hit the home run to win the Super Bowl? Did Amelia Earhart give up when Howard Hughes told her she couldn’t play golf on the moon? Did Confederate Yankee stop secretly blowing multiple loads over his hidden stash of typography journals when people made fun of him?
Buck up, folks!
And that’s why Obama will win.
Now, will Obama be the liberal/progressive messiah? No. He’s too much of a consensus-builder by nature. He’s not going to run the neocons out of town on rails, much to the more passionate progressives’ dismay I’m sure. Eliminationism runs both ways, and if you’ll only be satisfied if not only are the cons beaten in November but utterly destroyed and banished from society, I’m afraid you’re going to be disappointed because that’s not happening. The neocons aren’t going away and we’ll be fighting them the rest of our lives. But after January 20th, they won’t be in control of our government anymore- unless we quit fighting.
Yawn.
Look, I’ll give you credit for obviously not being Iris 2: Electric Boogaloo or some No Quarter troll, but the McEwan/Zuzuish shit grows old. We get it. You didn’t want him to win the primary, but he did. Sucks. But it happened. So you can either join us and try to get some semblance of a progressive elected, or you can just Monday Morning QB it and make snide remarks about how you tooooooold us soooooo! or whip out the oh-so-funny Hopey McUnity O’Change d’Yeswecan like you’re really doing or saying something substantial. From where I sit, Obama has a solid if not spectacular lead, he’s running a fine enough campaign, and I’d be cool if he were president. Please elaborate on how this is an incorrect POV…or you can just sit there in the mud on your teaspoon and whine and moan.
F this pity party. Don’t make me bring out the Naderbot.
The problem is that it’s worse than not a cakewalk, because none of the obvious disadvantages suffered by McCain and listed repeatedly here have kicked in or are going to kick in, and some of them appear to be diluting.
I know. Insanely, the rest of the country is not the comments section of a liberal blog. Understand that you’re inside the bubble, here, and just like the wingnuts on right-wing blogs, we are a small minority.
Eliminationism runs both ways, and if you’ll only be satisfied if not only are the cons beaten in November but utterly destroyed and banished from society, I’m afraid you’re going to be disappointed because that’s not happening.
And, unlike them, I don’t believe I have the right to tell neocons they have no place in this country. We don’t work that way here; or, at least, we shouldn’t.
Obama is too popular to win!!!111!
WTF is this? I come to this site to make fun of the wingers…not to read shit posted as if you’ve become one.
To be fair, Brad et al aren’t sounding like wingers so much as Defeatocrats.
This whole thread stinks of No Quarter. I say kill it before it breeds.
I was thinking more “bad imitation of Billmon on a downer day”, but I guess No Quarter works too.
I think Obama should cement his victory by adopting McGovern’s Acid, Amnesty and Abortion platform. Especially the acid. It’s a little-known fact that write-in candidate Max Frost, the teenage pop idol, nearly won in 1964 on the strength of his platforms of giving the vote to 14-year-olds and free acid to everyone over 30. I’m not normally a single-issue voter, but, damn, all that free acid…
Are we that down in the mouth already? Fuck, man, winners are supposed to LOVE these pressure-cooker situations. Not run away from them with their tails between their legs. Did Michael Jordan get scared before he hit the home run to win the Super Bowl? Did Amelia Earhart give up when Howard Hughes told her she couldn’t play golf on the moon? Did Confederate Yankee stop secretly blowing multiple loads over his hidden stash of typography journals when people made fun of him?
HELL, NO!!!
I smell a rebuttal post.
Please, why are we discussing this “voting” rubbish? What do you think this is, a democracy? No no, this is the united states incorporated, where the most expensive campaign buys you the CEO position.
And Obama has more money. He is raising far, far more dosh than Mcain.
Here is a research project for those with more time on their hands than me. See how fundraising success correlates with electoral success in the general election.
My theory is.. the one that raises the most cash always wins.
I’m starting to believe that once again I’ve been taken in by a satirical post.
I seem to see one of these Chicken Little posts about every 2 months or so … & always without any actual bad news to back them up.
IIIEEEE!!!11! Obama is only up by 6 or 8 points!
OH NOES! McCain’s website is attacking Obama!
Well, quelle fuckin’ surprise – their “best man for the job” is a bucket of human library paste who does more 180s than a skater on meth. It’s not like he can win on his OWN image.
Look at ALL the special elections, which by the way are an excellent predictor of the general – the Dems haven’t lost a single one, not even in Teh Heartland … yup, the GOP even got shitcanned in Mississippi, on turf they’d seriously owned for 20+ years. They’re fighting for their political lives, even in hardcore Red State territory – so yeah, Obama must be doing something wrong, alright. Like crushing a primary opponent who was supposed to win it in a walk – boy, what a wimp. Like registering all those millions of brand-new voters, gee, what a goofball.
LOL
Dems have done themselves no small amount of hurt in the past by running some very hoity-toity/silver-spoon/Beltway-insider people for POTUS since Clinton, & the GOP knows exactly how to shut that down. That “who would you rather have a beer with” meme was no accident, it was a tactic. They ran in 2000 & 2004 on Gore & Kerry’s effete elitism – & they played right into it. (Pray tell, what braniac told Kerry he’d impress everyone with his knowledge of French, right alongside O’Reilly’s mighty smear campaign against “Cheese-eating Surrender-monkeys”?) Running the same game against Obama is actual low-comedy, given his real bio … but they’re doing it anyway.
Bad economys slaughter incumbents, especially 2-term ones … & this one blows goats. People are also getting a mite nauseated by all the black-op politicking as practised by lowlifes like Rove – & you’re advocating the same-old same-old? Why exactly do you think Obama’s handing McCain his sad old ass? He’s doing it diferently, & a LOT of folks are enjoying it immensely.
I just read some of his own ex-staffers calling the Spears-Hilton ads “juvenile & pathetic” … these are hardcore GOP ops, the people most likely to go with a “My Party, Right Or Wrong” stance. Don’t forget, they’re not used to internal dissent, & this time it’s THEM doing most of the internal bickering – which you seem very eager to emulate when you post pointless prophecies of doom. Jesus, even most of the Wingnut Squad know better than that.
Obama speaks in front of hundreds of thousands in Berlin while McCain is in a fuckin’ Sausage Haus restaurant – & you’re saying America’s doomed to a McCain presidency. Uh, yeah, sure dude. Believe it when I see it.
PS – TruthBot agrees with you. Need I say more?
Another reason why Chimpy McHitlerBurton II won’t win in November:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/31/news/companies/exxon_profits/index.htm?eref=rss_topstories
[…] Does spite play a part in how people vote? Sadly, yes! […]
I worry about what I hear from my Mom in North Carolina. Some of her friends simply refuse to vote for a black man.
You don’t say? Funny, I’ve noticed the same thing among diehard Democrats in rural Ohio. You think that might be significant?
I can’t tell, what with all the high-falutin’ political analysis on this thread.
“The repukes slimed Gore, they slimed Kerry, but Obama came up through Chicago politics. Like Bill Clinton, he knows how to win a knife fight while smiling. McCain will start losing blood and never see or feel the blade.”
Ding ding ding ding! We have a winner!
Can an entire thread be labled concern-trolling? If so, this is the thread.
“Count on him to build up a message of hope, unity, blah blah blah, and to start kicking McCain in the teeth. ”
Whoop. There it is. Well put, grolby.
Mandos, I agree that the “post-partisan, kum-ba-unity” shtik is both viscerally unsatisfying and hints at self-defeating wimpism. But both O and his people know they’re in a street fight, not a Marquess of Queensbury match.
There will always be a part of the electorate for whom Rove’s smear tactics, and only Rove’s smear tactics, will work. They weren’t enough to beat Kerry in 04–other factors were involved. Those other factors now line up against the GOP, and McSame is a terrible choice to try to neutralize them.
More: the press, I think, will (correctly) see that this is their chance to atone for 8 years of Bush enabling.
The list of GOP failures and/or corruptions is long and gets longer by the day; it would take an infomercial half an hour long just to read the particulars.
Again, yes, some people will buy the appeals to spite, racism, fear, and classist imputations of “elitism.” But not enough to give them the win.
If you’re gonna piss in my Wheaties, at least make me laugh.
I remember reading something about this being a particular strategy of Obama’s. His campaign carefully avoids energizing the right’s base by refusing to enable their fearmongering.
Which makes sense. They’ve spent unlimited funds on the Limbaugh/FoxNews/chain-email infrastructure which is ready to spring into action mere nanoseconds after they hear “you don’t have to have your papers to vote.” Why chuck fuel into it on purpose?
Mandos, I agree that the “post-partisan, kum-ba-unity” shtik is both viscerally unsatisfying and hints at self-defeating wimpism.
Viscerally unsatisfying? Hm. That might be a hint. Is this post (and comments supporting it) a long-way-around to justifying engaging in our OWN spite and hate? Weak sauce.
Try this: staying partisan and spiteful is both ethically grotesque and hints at chest-beating misanthropy.
Does that sound like something you want to fall back on?
Brad,
I love you like in a very manly and not at all gay way (that said, i’m open minded…) — but grow a pair will you?
And Manos: If you’re gonna pre-emptively call this one for McCain and use “I told you so”, DON’T write this too: Even if Obama wins, this should have been a cakewalk from start to finish.
Unless you live in a different country than we do, it’s insane to think that.
Both parties do nothing but peddle “hope and change”. It’s just that the Republican version is “you HOPE you’re going to get really rich, so let’s CHANGE the tax structure in a way that hurts you now but will help you when you get there.”
That works in economic uptimes but is FAIL in downtimes. We are in the latter. Hence, FAIL.
“Enable their fearmongering” pah. You think that their fearmongering is somehow disabled?
Maybe Obama, elected in January, will rip the mask off and he’ll bring in the New Deal: Second Coming. We can always, well, HOPE.
Look, folks: fine, you think I’m whining. But *I* don’t think it’s a great idea to keep on repeating the mistakes of the past. And this election seems like a total capitulation to High Broderism. Which is *never* satiated. Would Hillary have been the anti-Broder, probably not—I really doubt it. But at least she wouldn’t have come with an enormous constituency who actually buys that stuff. That’s what really gets me about this. There are people who actually buy that stuff.
I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised.
Viscerally unsatisfying? Hm. That might be a hint. Is this post (and comments supporting it) a long-way-around to justifying engaging in our OWN spite and hate? Weak sauce.
Try this: staying partisan and spiteful is both ethically grotesque and hints at chest-beating misanthropy.
Does that sound like something you want to fall back on?
More than absolutely, yes. Politics in a two-party adversarial system can only and ever be about feasting on the metaphorical heads of your opponents.
I didn’t build the system.
I didn’t build the system.
You sure seem satisfied with keeping it the way it is. Me, I didn’t sign on with the Democrats so I could be Karl Rove, Jr.
The Republican version is not like that at all. It’s like, “We know your life sucks, but—oh, look, there’s an illegal immigrant!”
Fuck yeah, neocons have a place in our country… it’s called Guantanimo Bay. I hope they all fit.
So, Mr. Chivalry, do you think that Obama will amend the constitution to enable a more than two-party outcome?
My God.
The State We Are In:
“I do not want to be yet another monster” = “Mr. Chivalry”
You open the door, just a crack, and the Hillbots will find their way in. You can’t just kill them, is the point, you have to find the nest and kill the eggs.
“Yet another monster”???
OK, I give up. David Broder wins.
The silver lining in all this moping dark clouds is that even though McCain hasn’t polled higher than Obama since early May (with the exception of the weird Gallup +4 outlier), he’s got no underdog narrative.
Sure the media loves a horse race, but they love a Cinderella story even more. And if that underdog is darling JiSM3, the fawning and fluffing would be astronomical.
You open the door, just a crack, and the Hillbots will find their way in. You can’t just kill them, is the point, you have to find the nest and kill the eggs.
Wonderful. Hope and Unity/capitulation on one side, eliminationism on the other. Great.
Why do Hillary dead-enders and their moan-n-groan cousins insist on making Don Surber-level cracks like this? It’s fucking stupid.
Fair enough, but it’s worth noting again that, yes indeedily ding dong diddly, Obama is winning. And additionally, he’s been willing to slice and dice whether you admit he has or not. How dare he not make cracks about McCain’s prostate or call him a shithead on his Web site, I suppose, but I don’t see a brazillion things wrong with Obama’s strategy here- peddle hope-and-change up top but keep jabbing McCain with a shiv below. Notice how he’s, you know, winning?
Oh come ON. Go look at some of the last few places to concede- Taylor Marsh, Corrente, Shakesville. Go look at the places that still haven’t. Don’t come here and tell me that Hillary fans weren’t as delusional than their Obama counterparts. The fact that there are still millions and millions of people who still view Hillary Freaking Clinton has some sort of feminist/progressive icon takes the wood to your argument.
Oh noes!
Viscerally unsatisfying? Hm. That might be a hint. Is this post (and comments supporting it) a long-way-around to justifying engaging in our OWN spite and hate? Weak sauce.
Try this: staying partisan and spiteful is both ethically grotesque and hints at chest-beating misanthropy.
Does that sound like something you want to fall back on?
Everyone has something they are trying to accomplish, and there is always someone else in the way. And everyone has their reasons, good or bad.
You just want everyone to remain unpartisan? Fine. But someone else wants to be partisan, and thinks you are in their way. What do you do then? Pretend that the conflict doesn’t exist? Just get out of their way? What if, when you try to get out of their way, you find that the “someone else” just followed you and is still attacking you?
Struggle and contention are inescapable realities. The difference with me, is I don’t want to use violence to achieve my aims. Usually, you cannot acheive a political aim without pissing someone off. This is reality.
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I’m plenty partisan and spiteful, but I’m not a presidential candidate. I don’t have to 50% + 1 electoral votes.
All that’s on my plate is to do my tiny bit toward moving that Overton window toward holding the criminals who have run the country for the past decade accountable for their actions. I’m the radical that says “Fuck the trial. Shoot ’em first, then hang them.” Then when Obama says “Oh no, no, that’s not how we do things. They should definitely get a fair trial,” then he looks like Mr. Reasonable.
You always want your leaders to play Mr and/or Ms Reasonable Centrist. The real game is won by the people who can move that center to where they want it.
The Republican version is not like that at all. It’s like, “We know your life sucks, but—oh, look, there’s an illegal immigrant!”
Well, yeah, xenophobes are another Republican constituency, you’re right. As is the religious right. But then there’s the country club conservatives and those who aspire to that status. Their numbers swell in good economic times and decline in bad times.
These are the people who either are rich enough or think they’re going to get rich enough to need tax breaks, and also believe they will prosper with less government regulation of economic activities.
Anecdotal example: all the newfound interest in Ayn Rand during the mid- to late-1990s. Don’t hear much about ‘The Virtue of Selfishness’ these days, do you?
This is all they’ve got – from a post on RealClearPolitics on why McCain should choose Romney as his VP:
So, McCain should pick the guy who helps his message the most. But what is McCain’s message? I think it is: in a year when the country is dissatisfied with his party, he is an acceptable Republican while his opponent is a needlessly risky choice.
Even for the most able candidate, this would be difficult to communicate. It is hard to criticize an opponent without diminishing yourself. Unfortunately for the GOP, McCain is not the “most able candidate.” It seems to me that his team has tried to execute this strategy with McCain as chief critic – but it has backfired. McCain seems less acceptable, Obama seems no more risky.
The McCain campaign should not expect this to change if things remain as they are. McCain has lots of political strengths, but attacking another candidate is not one of them. He can’t seem to hit Obama. Hillary Clinton couldn’t, either. The two of them seem smaller for their efforts.
However McCain has an asset that Hillary simply lacked. He can outsource the attacks, handing the duties over to the veep pick. McCain can go back to being the maverick straight talker while the vice-presidential nominee can go after Obama.
This is why Mitt Romney might make a good veep candidate.
This is the best they can muster – pick that smiling, flip-flopping asshole multimillionaire to do the dirty work that McCain can’t, or won’t do, and hope that enough people don’t notice what a shitty candidate McCain is.
They’re going to lose.
I’m surprised to see some of the comments here. Barack Obama is in extremely good shape to win this November, and here are the reasons why:
This isn’t a popular vote contest, it’s an electoral vote contest. And the electoral map looks pretty bleak for McCain. Of the Kerry states, only MI and NH are even remotely in play, and those are both in the “lean Democratic” category as of now. Obama already has NY, CA, OR, WA, MN, WI, IL, PA, DC, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA, MN and HI in the bank. Pollster has all of those states in the “strong Democratic” category, for a totel of 231 electoral votes. McCain only gets ID, UT, WY, NE, OK, KS, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY and WV in his “strong Republican” category for a measly 78 EVs.
The “toss-up” states at the moment were all red states in 2004: NV, AZ (!), MT, CO, MO, IN, VA, NC and FL. McCain has to hold every single one of those and somehow prevent OH from flipping to Obama. IA, a red state last time, is probably a lost cause.
In short, McCain is fucked.
He is trailing in OH, which was the linchpin of Bush’s 2004 victory. IA is probably a lost cause. CO is trending blue very rapidly.
2. The Kerry campaign had a major Achilles’ heel: their GOTV effort. As others have commented already on this thread, the Kerry team’s GOTV strategy was a decentralized clusterfuck. The Obama campaign is a different beast– many people who know a thing or two about politics have said it’s the most organized, disciplined campaign they have ever seen.
3. Obama’s “enthusiastic support” numbers are what, three or four times higher than McCain’s? It seems to me that once Obama wins over a voter, that voter stays in the Obama camp. McCain’s support seems to be much more fickle
Don’t hear much about ‘The Virtue of Selfishness’ these days, do you?
‘Course, I still believe in it. Just not the same way that Ayn Rand did.
Oops, didn’t finish #3, but you get the idea. This thing ain’t gonna be close, my friends.
Mandos, I’m not meaning to pick on you in particular, but your quote just sums it up so completely.
If you want to give up, FINE. Go home and watch TV, get fat, get stupid… and STFU about how it’s all in vain.
Hey Mandos, this time it is about you in particular. Get fat, get stupid, and STFU.
“Politics in a two-party adversarial system can only and ever be about feasting on the metaphorical heads of your opponents” sounds like the ambition of a political monster to me.
atheist: I am A-OK with pissing people off. I am not A-OK with perfectly emulating the behaviors and attitudes of the people I despise for the sake of victory — people I claim to despise PRECISELY BECAUSE of their behaviors and attitudes. The word is “hypocrisy.”
Sorry, Brad, but you’re way too young to be sounding like such a cynical, crusty, old fart.
Whenever I get too lost in my subjective assessments in this matter, I turn to Nate Silver to remind me of the cold, hard facts.
And at the moment, it’s O with 305EV, while Mc gets 233.
Sure, fine, gbear. It’s clear that still no one wants to listen, hope you prove me wrong, etc, etc.
After all, divisiveness, spite, and petty insults worked out so well for Hillary.
Wow, that’s some pretty interesting stuff on that site.
Obama is going to win my home state (VA). Of this I am more and more certain every day.
If Obama is as smart as I think he is, his veep choice will be a snarling attack dog who incessantly calls out McCain’s hypocritical bullshit while Obama remains smiling and radiant.
I am not A-OK with perfectly emulating the behaviors and attitudes of the people I despise for the sake of victory — people I claim to despise PRECISELY BECAUSE of their behaviors and attitudes.
I really don’t see who is even advocating this. People are discussing whether it would make strategic sense for Obama to go negative. If you think it’s a bad idea, fine. Make your case. There’s no need to resort to namecalling and insults.
Here’s why Obama doesn’t need to go negative – because McCain’s attempts to go negative have been (and will continue to be) a big fat Fail. McCain is uncomfortable with selling the message, he’s not a politician who made his name by being a CampaignBot. If this was the W attack machine, with orchestrated attacks being hammered home by W at every turn, then Obama would have to respond in kind (and, quite frankly, he’d bury W). But against McCain, who’s bad at sticking to a message, Obama can stay above the fray and allow McCain to bury himself with silly ads about Britney Spears.
Christ, I hope this is a subtle parody post, and I’m just missing. If not, this sort of horseshit is exactly why certain aspects of the the liberal blogosphere and the moderate Left make me sick. You’d rather give up and be able to complain than actually do something that’d help all those non-suburban, well-educated, white, middle-class Americans that you claim to care so damn much about. You motherfuckers sit on your hands while poor folks in the trailer parks and ghettos go without education, healthcare, nutrition and hope; you shake your fist and stamp your little feet at conservative bigots and homophobes, making snarky jokes and clever innuendos; and then piss and moan because bringing about all this change you cheer for and evil you claim to be against is just too goddamn hard to overcome. You’re as bad as the wingnuts who claim their war wank-offs are just as viable as soldiers fighting in the WOT. All hat, not cattle.
It’s friggin’ July, for chrissakes. This is nothing but punking out in the worst way. If it’s this close in October, maybe you wouldn’t sound so laughable for such nonsense. Jesus, smoke a joint and get over yourself.
atheist: I would point you to the quote from Mandos I cited in the same comment. “Going negative” is a nice balmy way of saying the same thing. The OP is asking permission to be as negative
People made the argument against Hillary that she was a divisive figure. *That* *was* *precisely* *her* *advantage*.
Right. After her super duper divisive powers enabled her to lose the primary popular vote and the primary delegate count against a complete rookie named “Barack Hussein Obama,” her super duper divisive powers would have worked out mega doubleplus okey-dokey against the FOX/AM News/Op-Ed noise machine.
If she was divisive, it wasn’t against Republicans. What pissed me off about HRC was her constant ingratiating herself with the whole Fox news crowd. Obama may talk a lot about “reaching across the aisle”, but I didn’t see him kissing up to the right wing media the way Clinton did.
Matt T.:
But that’s haaaard. Can’t we just run negative ads now? I sure miss drawing blood.
OK, Ken, if you want to get morally outraged by real life, I’m the last one to keep you from it.
The Republicans have already decided to throw this one so they can replenish their whine supply. McCain is the new Dole. Obama will win and it’ll be “Black Muslim Traitor Fag in the White House” 24/7. It’s what they do. They’re hoping to spread enough slime to fuel a landslide in 2012. And that’s my crackpot theory for today.
But *I* don’t think it’s a great idea to keep on repeating the mistakes of the past. And this election seems like a total capitulation to High Broderism. Which is *never* satiated. Would Hillary have been the anti-Broder, probably not—I really doubt it. But at least she wouldn’t have come with an enormous constituency who actually buys that stuff. That’s what really gets me about this. There are people who actually buy that stuff.
Look, when we lose election after election, it makes sense to ask, “Hey! Why do we keep losing?” Just don’t get so attached to your answer that you resent being proven wrong.
Obama is winning at this point, even if he isn’t doing it the way that you would want him to and, therefore, appears to you to be losing.
Um, I think you better go read up on the process for amending the constitution. I mean, sure, presidential power has, er, increased under bush/cheney, but I don’t think even they think they could get away with a president just writing in a new amendment…
mikey
My gauge on this is comparing where we are now to where we were at the same time in 2004. At the present, as well as in 2004 my parents lived in one of the most solidly powerful GOP strongholds in the country – suburbs of Cincinnati. When I visited them in August of that year, there were Bush/Cheney stickers and lawn signs EVERYWHERE as far as the eye could see. There were a few Kerry signs but they were very few.
This year I have seen maybe one McCain sticker. That’s about it. In the same neighborhoods, Obama signs are everywhere – not like Bush in 2004, but still an increase from a couple to many, is pretty significant. Moreover, the Dems in general have a far better operation throughout the country than in 2004. They are setting records in signing up new voters. They are clearly favored on the issues. Note that Obama got more of the primary vote this year than Kerry and Gore got in their primaries.
There are plenty of people who simply will not vote for a black fella. Fine. It’s likely those people wouldn’t vote for a Dem anyway. These are not the folks we need to worry about. I do not think that the knuckle-dragger vote will be as significant as in the past because there are enough disaffected GOPer types who actually understand the shit the GOP has turned this country into over the past 8 years. I see it every day with people I work with: white, female, middle-aged women who were Bush supporters, now are behind Obama. These people are key and can be easily swayed to Obama’s side. They might be reluctant but they’re not stupid.
The current economy greatly favors the Dems. This can not be underestimated. McCain’s attacks have had a net zero effect. True, I think that Obama rock and roll tactics haven’t earned him all that much either. If he gets out there, and importantly if he gets his surrogates out there on his behalf, he will begin to connect more and more. These people are for the taking. Remember that Bill and Hillary haven’t gotten out there for him yet. They will be huge (hopefully). Obama can’t sit back and rely on his rock star status; that’s true. But all he has to do is get out there, connect, and remind people that McCain is Bush III. It’s not difficult.
Finally, McCain has NOTHING he can run on other than “don’t vote for the black guy.” That’s it.
If she was divisive, it wasn’t against Republicans.
In her defense, I’m sure that she would have stopped praising McCain as soon as she won the nomination.
Mandos, you’ve gone on for at least two dozen posts about what a waste of effort this all is. Even (especially) if you’re proven right in November (and it’s hard to lose with the argument that Obama will lose because no one cares), you’re still completely full of shit.
What Matt T. said.
atheist: I thought you were asking me to make my case. I was. Going the negative route and mirroring the Republicans would be ethically repugnant and one big fat selling out of everything that got Obama to the point he’s at now.
BONUS PRAGMATISM:Considering “the point he’s at now” is pretty fucking great, going negative would also be a very stupid, not to mention needless, tactic.
And if I could never hear the gee-aren’t-I-world-weary “that’s just how the real world works, kid” argument ever again, that would be super.
Oh, Edna, we both know that these kids have no future.
(shocked silence)
Prove me wrong, children! Prove me wrong.
Speaking of the audacity of hope:
But what if…
Is Obama the Liberal Jesus, The One, etc. – No. He is a politician.
But, he’s running about a clean a campaign as has ever been run. And to all the people bitching and moaning about how that strategy is going to cost him in November, what if it doesn’t.
Maybe that’s the discussion that’s being had in the Obama Strategy sessions. Is our lead big enough that we can roll into November clean? And what if it is?
What if The Strategy is all about McCain going all negative all the time. What if the real goal is that the election post-mortems come out all saying that negative ads don’t work? What if the narrative that’s being sought is “despite John McCain’s descent from an honorable maverick to a partisan mudslinger…”
The GOP has two big tools – hate and greed. Wouldn’t it be nice to leave them with just one.
It’s fair to be pessimistic given the four decades of Amer. history just past. BUT:
Let me share that the other side’s pessimistic as well. I visited my dad, a KoolAid drinkin’ hard-core 28% Fox-watching maniac in June. He was incredibly ANGRY (& bitter) that the “stupid” American public was about to reject a 3rd Bush term and put in that “corrupt, machine” politician, Obama, in to the White House.
I certainly couldn’t disagree with that the public’s stupid (8 yrs. of the Chimperator), but he really seemed to feel the hope for further enriching the top 1%, destroying unions & Social Security, etc. was fleeing right before his eyes.
I think people make good points about the debates above. Kerry might have “smoked” the box-wearin’ dullard, but I recall him adopting WAY too many RePuke talking points. When he literally said “There’s NO DOUBT Saddam Hussein was a THREAT to this country”, my jaw dropped. When the Angry Chimp waved his tiny finger in admonition that Kerry was “TOO Liberal”!!, and Kerry (a compromised moderate) made NO defense of the term liberal, or himself, I also thought it pathetic. If Obama avoids this type of capitulations Crazy Grandpa may not be #44. So far he seems capable of defending himself while maintaining some basic dignity.
Ooohh, what Dragon-King said too. The past does not have to be the future.
Uh, wtf are we supposed to do to change Obama? You ppl telling us that we’re just bitching, and to do something or shut up, well… what is it? You want me to go out and lie to people and say that Obama really will throw the book at Rethugs? I can’t change what the guy is.
You know, Ken Lowery’s schtick is just proving my point. How the fuck am I supposed to go out a sell *that* kinda shit, Matt? Jay?
[And if you call *me* or Brad a bitter Hillarybot, you can eat it, cobags. I — and probably Brad, too — talked up Kucinich, Dodd, Edwards, and Richardson in equally measured tones. *I* was never one to bullshit by saying X candidate was all that, and not because ‘ZOMG I just have to have Nader’ or whatever the next retarded accusation is in yalls file.]
And if I could never hear the gee-aren’t-I-world-weary “that’s just how the real world works, kid” argument ever again, that would be super.
There’s a great way to make sure you never hear the argument again: don’t insult people just for being honest. I you refrain from attacking them, they won’t have to defend themselves with that argument.
Other people “being spiteful” has worked out well for:
Rudolph Giuliani, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney.
Against a Democrat. And just barely. He’s going to get smoked in the general. Sorry to be such a downer, but Jesus the writing’s on the wall.
Obama is and has been consistently ahead in every single poll, outside the margin of error by a small if comfortable amount. And Democrats have signed up a historic number of voters, while the GOP not nearly as much.
And, in anecdotal news, my conservative Dad has been vocally considering not voting this year. And he has no handy rejoinder when I point out that a) McCain’s running on continuing Bush’s disaster, and b) his temperament would do disservice to a rabid possum.
I think a lot of it will hinge on how they come out of the debates. We’ll see, won’t we?
The fact is, you liberals are loosers. You will fail in November. Here in the Heartland, we vote for freedom, balance, fairness and America USA #1. We vote for McCain.
You want me to go out and lie to people and say that Obama really will throw the book at Rethugs?
Why would anybody possibly need to do this?
Is Obama better than McCain? By about a million percent. This is all that you need to sell. The economy’s in the shitter, our foreign policy is a global joke. Will Obama fix these with his magic fairy dust? Of course not. But given the options, Obama is far and away the better one. This is how every single election cycle works. You get excited for someone, he disappoints the shit out of you, and then you support him anyway because the alternative is much, much worse.
Also, Obama will come off looking faggy in the debates. McCain’s straight talk will win every time. He also has the facts and logic, which liberal left USA haters never do.
atheist: Only thing I can say is I wasn’t intending to directly attack anyone. I think Mandos’s arguments are terminally weak, but that’s his arguments, not the man himself. (Hence “hypocrisy,” instead of “hypocrite.”) I apologize if I phrased myself poorly, to you and Mandos.
Thanks, HTML. I guess?
The fact is you liberals look very weak indeed. Our enemies hope you will win. Here in the heartland, we will not LET YOU WIN.
Uh, wtf are we supposed to do to change Obama? You ppl telling us that we’re just bitching, and to do something or shut up, well… what is it? You want me to go out and lie to people and say that Obama really will throw the book at Rethugs? I can’t change what the guy is.
Are you fucking serious? You seem to have a really hard time distinguishing means from end. What is the goal?
A) Win the election and end 8 years of disasterous Republican government
B) Get our candidate to throw some really great zingers.
If it is A, you can help by pitching in on the campaign. Volunteer, give money, go door to door and say any nasty shit you want to about Republicans. Nobody is holding your tongue. If it is B, you are shit out of luck and I don’t feel sorry for you. Priorities, Christ.
Am I being unfair? It actually sounds like some people would rather see Obama lose than win without insulting Republicans.
Not at all, pedestrian.
I must have missed the “spitful” over 9/11! 9/11! 9/11!
Ron Paul should not have even been on the map. He should have been trailing Tancredo and Hunter in the race for last place. Instead, he was a juggernaut in fund raising and perhaps the most successful rabble-rouser since Perot.
I had to vote Republican in my district (because Democrats were barely even filing one slot on the ballot, much less fighting for the honor) and he got my vote among quite a few others.
LOLS! That’s not spite. That’s just stupid.
that McCain keeps throwing bullshit at Obama, and Obama keeps using ninja skills to swat it away.
Seriously. Obama is a goddamn red-belt. If there is even a belt high enough to mark his skills.
McCain dares Obama to go overseas – so Obama goes and Maliki endorses his plan, he solidifies cred with the Israelis, and 200,000 people go to see him in Germany. Two hundred effing thousand. !!! Obama dominates the news with 100% positives for an entire week. McCain’s stuck in a supermarket.
Then Obama’s spider-sense activates, partly due to the Pentagon’s sudden weirdness about him visiting the soldiers in the hospital – and cancels the visit entirely. McCain and Rove were all set to sucker-punch him with “using the soldiers as props” – but Obama saw their telegraphed punch with his political third eye and isn’t even on the same side of the room.
All he has to do is not fuck up, and keep answering direct attacks early and strongly – which was Kerry’s tragic mistake – and he really could win this thing.
People are discussing whether it would make strategic sense for Obama to go negative. If you think it’s a bad idea, fine. Make your case. There’s no need to resort to namecalling and insults.
It’s a bad idea, strategically as opposed to ethically, because Obama stands for not being negative. His entire schtick is ‘hope and change’. That’s who brung him to the dance.
Now it may not be enough to win — I think it is — but what’ll really sink him is to do a 180 and take to the gutter (I’m a metaphor mixologist!) Voters can tell when a candidate is pretending to be something they’re not. Bob Dole’s entire 1996 campaign is proof of that. And people can also tell when a candidate is making a big strategic change — it indicates weakness.
Look, if Obama’s 20 points down in October, yeah, maybe he should swtich styles. The argument would be, he’s got nothing to lose. But he’s leading right now. Why fuck with a good thing?
*SIGH*
Obama will NOT:
Pursue accountability for bush administration lawbreakers to any notable degree
Pursue accountability for corporate enablers from Telcos to Haliburton to Blackwater
Pursue accountability for the horrendous war profiteering and fraud around Iraq
Roll back all the damage to the constitution
Back off from rattling america’s sabers at arbitrary nations from iran to russia
Obama WILL
Work to roll back some of the more excessive tax cuts
Work to roll back some of the worst de-regulations that have trashed so many industries
Work to create real jobs
Work to find new solutions to funding education
Work to develop alternative and renewable energy generation
Work against greenhouse gas pollution and climate change
At least improve the heath care system’s cost and availability to many
Be elected president in November without significant negative campaigning.
mikey
The Obama folks have squandered every opportunity to attack this Buffoon over the past months.
Do you really think so? I don’t think so. It seems to me they’ve been countering his every move and hitting him really hard, on Iraq, Afghanistan, and the economy.
Reasonable people may differ, but that’s how I see it…
I think Mandos’s arguments are terminally weak, but that’s his arguments, not the man himself.
Oh. Yeah, actually I think Mando’s arguments in this thread are weak too. So that’s fine.
Perhaps I over-reacted. I felt like you were accusing us of being violent or something. I felt that was unfair.
I guess I feel that there are valid arguments for or against ruthlessness in politics. It is an issue that I have found myself on different sides of, and I don’t know if the debate is finished in my mind. Sometimes I feel that if we do not at least consider the possibility of ruthlessness, we leave ourselves open to its use by our opponents. Maybe my own ambivalence makes me react more harshly than I should. If I reacted more harshly that I should, I am sorry.
Is Obama better than McCain? By about a million percent. This is all that you need to sell.
Yeah, and I do. All the time. He’s better than shit — what a strong selling point that is. Though I guess it’s better than deluding myself and misleading others that’s he’s really something exciting in a substantive, issues-oriented way, it’s still not something that’s gonna go like hotcakes.
OTOH, if I had “immediate withdrawl from Iraq”, “guaranteed no aggressive war with Pakistan or Iran or indeed anyone,” and “promise to prosecute war criminals and all other lawbreakers of the previous regime” and “no bipartisan horseshit” to sell, I’d be a more enthusiastic seller, and more people would want to buy.
Uh, wtf are we supposed to do to change Obama?
Nothing. Just vote for him and cross your fingers.
Am I being unfair? It actually sounds like some people would rather see Obama lose than win without insulting Republicans.
Not unfair. The number one goal is to keep Bomby Mc Hundred Years as far away from the Button as possible. If Obama goes negative right now, starts in with a constant stream of Keating this and Cindy’s drug troubles that, well okay, that’s what the campaign has decided needs to be done.
But wouldn’t it be nice… Sure maybe I’ve got my head in the clouds. Maybe I’m too old to be so very young and naive. But maybe Team Obama knows where they’re at, and knows where they’re going, and they know they can get there in a way that hurt the GOP the most. And maybe I’m totally full of shit. If I’m right, it’ll be by coincidence, but I’ll be delighted none the less.
The fact is, Obama is terrible and everyone in The Heartland knows it. We support a man who talks straight and is pro-USA. McCain.
HTML,
I dunno how to sell Ken’s shit, but why don’t you try selling some of your own? You’re a bright kid, a sharp thinker and a good writer. You got a solid grasp on the issues and, in my opinion, you (usually) piss off all the right people. Keep doing what you’re doing, remember to vote come November, and – hey, it’s just a wild idea – don’t fuckin’ throw in the town four months before the election. Nobody said it’d be easy. And even when Obama wins – another wild idea, bear with me – it still ain’t over and it won’t get easier.
But if you wanna give up, fuckin’ give it up and retreat to your soybeans. Just don’t expect me to tell you it’s all right. ‘Cause what’s said about about “being part of the problem”, well, It’s a cliche, but it’s true.
Goddamn, all y’all do realize this is how the Bush people got into power in the first place, don’t you, far too many people saying “There’s no sense in even trying”? Dr. King and Joe Hill and far too many others died for real progress. Least you could do for the little Obama may bring is not fucking quit before the election even takes place. Sheesh.
Also, Ken, what the hell was your problem with what Matt T. said? He said that people should stop being lazy and negative, and actually try to fix the situation. He was angry at people who were not working to fix things. What was wrong with that?
Maybe those things sell in Blue State America, but here in Red State America (where Obama is going to win, or perhaps lose, the election) it doesn’t fly. What works is this:
Bush sucks.
McCain is the same as Bush.
Obama is not the same as Bush.
You’re looking at this election in terms of what do Liberal McLiberalsons really want (and I consider myself one of those, for the record) but the important question is, what does Bubba, who has grown to loathe Bush and can barely feed his family, really want. And what Bubba really wants (and make no mistake, I have a lot of affection for Bubba) is simply someone different. I saw this shit last year, when we made big gains in local races in rural Virginia because people were just completely fed up with everything, and things will only be more pronounced in 2008 with the economy the way it is.
Difference between Nixon and McCain: the latter is a serious rageaholic. Even if he doesn’t blow up in the debates, watch him turn tomato-red when Obama punches one of his buttons. Hell, remember that letter he sent Obama? The guy goes fucking ballistic in print. I think that we’ll have revenge for Howard Dean’s yee-haw moment, with interest.
Ron Paul should not have even been on the map. He should have been trailing Tancredo and Hunter in the race for last place. Instead, he was a juggernaut in fund raising and perhaps the most successful rabble-rouser since Perot.
Well, that’s because he was the only Republican who was against the Iraq clusterfuck. In the general his votes will go to Barr, Obama, or none of the above. Not to John Sidney “Surge! Surge! Surge!” McCain III.
Is that the troll Gary or the meta-antitroll-drolltroll Gary? It’s confusing in this hall of mirrors…
Good on everyone in the heartland. If they want another president they can have a beer with, well it would doom a lot of innocent heartlanders but I almost think they should just have him.
Good riddance and take Texas too. We’ll keep Austin as an embassy.
[Ron Paul] was a juggernaut in fund raising and perhaps the most successful rabble-rouser since Perot.
Perot is not a guy you want to cite if you want to talk about successful legacy. For all of Paul’s “juggernaut,” he made a piss-poor standing in the polls that actually mattered. He was a blip. An entertaining blip who had some OK ideas hidden amongst all the batshittery, but a blip nonetheless.
atheist:
No, not violence, just the kind of thuggery that Rove and co. are going for. I’m trying to stick to the idea of “what other people do doesn’t excuse what I do” in my personal life, and then applying it outward. Put another way: I can no longer field “but HE started it!” as a legitimate argument.
I understand your concerns–going round and round on this literally does keep me up some nights–but I, personally, can no longer stomach the idea of dropping our high-minded morals when the going gets tough… which is what I think is exactly what the Republicans (and many, many Democrats) did with the Patriot Act. We don’t have ethics and standards for when times are easy, after all.
Too many people seem to have taken “winning at all costs” to be the point of the whole exercise (as pedestrian pointed out), which again reminds me of Rove. That makes me uncomfortable.
Also, Ken, what the hell was your problem with what Matt T. said?
My sarcasm didn’t translate well. I was in full agreement with him.
I think FuriousGeorge is about right. I think Katrina shocked a lot of red state Americans awake, and there has not been one single bit of good news for Bush since then.
A silver lining in a dark cloud, but I’ll take it.
Maybe those things sell in Blue State America, but here in Red State America (where Obama is going to win, or perhaps lose, the election) it doesn’t fly. What works is this:
Bush sucks.
McCain is the same as Bush.
Obama is not the same as Bush.
Winner.
Then Obama’s spider-sense activates, partly due to the Pentagon’s sudden weirdness about him visiting the soldiers in the hospital – and cancels the visit entirely. McCain and Rove were all set to sucker-punch him with “using the soldiers as props” – but Obama saw their telegraphed punch with his political third eye and isn’t even on the same side of the room.
This was a joke, right? The Pentagon wouldn’t let Obama go – it had nothing to do with his super-psychic powers.
I still think he’s gonna win (barring catastrophe or really RAMPANT cheating) but jesus.
We’ll keep Austin as an embassy.
We can call it the Green Zone. As in, environmentally friendly. Yuk yuk yuk.
I can’t change what the guy is.
I can’t either, though I’m not entirely sure I’d want to.
While I’d love to see criminal indictments all around, if I had to choose, I’d rather see progress on health care, renewable energy, etc etc. Sure, it would be nice to have it all. Unfortunately, experience has taught us that we never will get it all wrapped up in one package with one candidate.
What I do is tell people that Obama is obviously intelligent and, thanks to his years as a community organizer, is aware of the problems that ordinary people in this country struggle with every day… and actually cares about addressing those problems. And that I know this to be a fact because I’ve done the same kind of work, and you don’t forget about it, no matter where your later life or career take you. And that it’s been many years since we’ve had a president who even had any idea of the struggles of ordinary people, and look where that has gotten us.
It ain’t perfect, but what is? And it’s a damn sight better than the alternative.
Having lived in both Austin and Dallas, I can tell you that you want Dallas. 32nd-most liberal voting city in the country, ahead of such luminaries as Los Angeles. 3/4 in favor of Kerry. Etc.
Austin’s OK, but boy are they pleased with themselves.
Unfortunately, experience has taught us that we never will get it all wrapped up in one package with one candidate.
Further, I don’t think we CAN get both issue progress AND criminal indictments. People are already going to be plenty pissed about the former; if he gives them more to be angry about with the latter, he gets nothing done. Having to choose between the two is no choice at all.
Austin’s OK, but boy are they pleased with themselves.
Ummm… Berkeley? Cambridge? Boulder? San Francisco?
Without that smug self-satisfaction, a city isn’t truly liberal.
Given that Obama is running the most disciplined, tightly organized, on-message campaign in the entire history of the Democratic Party, I’m amazed that so many of the armchair QBs here think that they know something that he and his campaign staff do not. We’ve tried the negative thing before. It hasn’t worked, because Rove is brilliant when it comes to defining candidates with his frames and getting everyone (even Kerry, fer crying out loud) to fall into step. Obama’s campaign seems to be aware of this history, and is actually doing what it takes to fight back. There’s no need to tear out anybody’s jugular. For all that I am deeply skeptical about bipartisanship, there has been little sign so far that Obama’s version of “unity” includes capitulation.
Anyway, I happen to think that the Obama campaign probably knows what the fuck it’s doing, and they think they have a winning strategy. I’m happy to give it a shot – we obviously need to try something new, and so far it’s working.
In the meantime, McCain might be attacking Obama more directly, but he’s also doddering around, making unrelentingly awkward and creepy campaign stops and looking like he would rather be standing anywhere in the world that wasn’t next to the Dalai Lama. If THAT wasn’t one of the funniest campaign clips I’ve ever seen, I’ll eat my hat.
pedestrian: I’m trying not to encourage them. 🙁
I understand your concerns–going round and round on this literally does keep me up some nights–but I, personally, can no longer stomach the idea of dropping our high-minded morals when the going gets tough… which is what I think is exactly what the Republicans (and many, many Democrats) did with the Patriot Act. We don’t have ethics and standards for when times are easy, after all.
Maybe. Thing is, often lately it seems to me that our efforts to be moral in the first place are what is causing the problem. Why did the Republicans push the Patriot Act through? I would argue, it was in part done because they knew Democrats would act ‘moral’ and not punish them for it.
People are pissed. You don’t really appreciate what 28%er (or whatever the number is now) really means until you live deep in Bush country. And sure, it holds him back that he’s black, and he’s constantly attacked on frivolous and untrue personal bullshit, and that’s keeping his lead in the single digits. But it’s still a lead, in spite of all of that, in spite of the fact that he’s run a clean campaign against someone who he could absolutely bury if he chose to go that route.
So there’s two issues. 1) Throwing in the towel in July, with a candidate that is ahead. That’s insane. Confidence breeds winning. Pretend you’ve already won, and people believe in you. Just ask Reagan. And 2) That Obama is not fighting all the appropriate issues sufficiently strongly. This is a fair criticism, but it’s also naive. Obama needs to win, and in order to win he has to appeal to people who are genuinely uninterested in, even hostile to, the idea of criminal accountability. If that’s the price for improving the lives of ordinary Americans, then it’s one worth paying. Every time he capitulates, of course I’m disappointed, but I’ve got my eye on the bigger picture and that picture is, as has been mentioned previously, to push that goddamn Overton Window back to the left.
Perhaps the only thing more outrageous than Exxon Mobil making record profits while Americans are paying record prices at the pump is the fact that Senator McCain has proposed giving them an additional $1.2 billion tax break. Senator McCain’s plan has succeeded in helping his campaign raise over $1 million from oil and gas company executives and employees just last month.
True that, atheist, but I’m thinking a more bitter punishment for the Repubs to swallow than counter-attacks is them being rendered irrelevant.
That’s my best guess at what Obama’s strategy is all about, in terms of ‘fighting back’ against McCain. As I noted in the previous post to this one, it’s what’s really really really enraging people like Malkin right now. That their dipshit, mean opinions are being treated with ‘ho hum’ rather than ‘how dare you!’ by the Obama campaign and increasingly, the mainstream political culture.
True fact: W was immune to legitimate criminal prosecution the second he was born to the Bush family. That ship sailed before we even knew it was at port. We need to process that ASAP.
atheist:
Maybe. Thing is, often lately it seems to me that our efforts to be moral in the first place are what is causing the problem.
I agree. I think the business-as-usual mentality we’ve been locked into for years (decades?) is frankly pretty poisonous to anything resembling integrity, and what we’ve come to define as “being moral” is a warped, mutated beast. That is part of why I am so strongly against reverting to same old, same old. It may suck doing that for a good long while, perhaps for the rest of our lives, but nothing worth having ever came easy.
I’d be all for calling everyone out for their shit in a way that DOES maintain integrity, but as I said above to someone else, I don’t think we’ll get to do that if we ALSO want to keep our hands on the steering wheel. Which sucks, but there you go.
Could be we as a party need to do some serious soul-searching (like I was hoping Ron Paul would do for the Republicans), but how realistic is that in an election year?
[…] Cost News » News News Comment on Spite works by mikey2008-07-31 14:42:22Work against greenhouse gas pollution and availability to many. Be elected […]
That their dipshit, mean opinions are being treated with ‘ho hum’ rather than ‘how dare you!’ by the Obama campaign and increasingly, the mainstream political culture.
Sure, the useful idiots are being jettisonned. That was to be expected. But the core leadership of the neoconservative movement hasn’t been hurt in any real way at all. They have gotten everything they wanted. And they’ll use it against us when they get the chance. That’s what worries me.
Brad, next time you get the urge to write a post like this, sit down, write it out, read it, then hit delete. You sound like a fucking three year old who’s afraid he’s not going to get his ice cream after dinner.
You could have save a lot of time by writing “Please post comments that make me feel better.”
I like you, man, but this was pretty pathetic.
Y’know something, Obama supporters? This ain’t the blog. After all, both of our current FP’ers in the comments (and a couple who aren’t here at the moment as well) have routinely described themselves as too leftist to be Democrats.
The problem isn’t that Obama is running a bad campaign, or that Obama is going to get beaten. It’s that the flaming (non-national) Socialists on the board won’t see our government up to it’s elbows in the blood of the Kristols and Bushes, with Pelosi being offered a choice of offering up a bill on nationalization of the oil industry or a relaxing stay in Guantanamo until she thinks better.
Hey, they run the site. That’s what they want, fine with me. But don’t EVER trust them to stick with you.
Yeah, yeah, maybe that’s all correct, but the thing is, McCain wins even if he loses!!! And you can take that to the bank, and collect interest on it.
Why haven’t we had a flag-burning amendment come up lately?
Uh, wtf are we supposed to do to change Obama? You ppl telling us that we’re just bitching, and to do something or shut up, well… what is it?
I don’t know what to tell you HTML. I didn’t think this was what this thread was addressing. We weren’t talking about platforms and beliefs, the whining and this post is about “tactics”. When the preferred candidate is leading in the polls. People are willing to give up because…Why exactly? The fix is in?
Its more than a little early for “I tolds ya” and “Woe is us” in this campaign. In which, again, the (slightly, mostly, somewhat, obviously, whatever) preferred candidate is leading in every poll. It’s bafflingly counterproductive — and unnecessary.
As for your specific conundrum — what to do when Obama gets in — that’s a different kettle of fish ain’t it?
Others, like Matt T. and mikey, have addressed it better than I can. I agree with jennifer about wanting things done, but I also think it’s imperative that the criminals in the GOP are prosecuted — otherwise, as history has shown us — they’ll just do the same things again.
I think Al Giordano, certainly no soft liberal or party Democrat, has consistently saw the good — and greater potential for even better — from Obama. And he seems to be cautiously optimistic that he’ll reach that potential of being great:
From Giordano: And that’s why, although at moments I consider Obama to be more centrist or timid on specific matters of policy than I am, although I remain acutely aware of the limits of electoral politics, even if he were to have a somewhat less progressive platform on “issues,” I would probably still be fascinated by the phenomenon what this electoral campaign has done to and for American society
This is basically where I come down. It’s fascinating to watch unfold. It represents the coming of age of the Internet as a tool for broadbased social organizing — and potentially even social justice. It’s too great a possibility to start the ritual seppeku at the moment, thanks. I’ll be happy enough if we can have 4 to 8 years of being disappointed in Obama.
Why haven’t we had a flag-burning amendment come up lately?
I think even the GOP has recognized it’s a boring loser of an issue for most people.
Hey, they run the site. That’s what they want, fine with me. But don’t EVER trust them to stick with you.
That’s right. You really can’t trust greens & socialists. They’re shifty-eyed & they smell like garlic. They steal. They’re just trying to pull you down.
Actually, if you want to be really safe, and stay with only the best people, you shouldn’t trust liberals at all. They’re too close to the socialists.
Personally, I think you should stay with the Republicans. They’re the only ones you can trust. Oh, the other ones have arguments that sound good. But who do you trust? Faggots and traitors? Or real men?
NobodySpecial, you are a brave, brave soul, giving your IP to the bloodthirsty homosexual communists like that. I will just pencil you onto the Death List now and save myself the trouble later.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAH!!! HAHAHAHAHHHAH!!
All this serious talk has got me down (But I get up again…Danny Boy)
So I went back to the McCain Press Room to dig up something that might need fisking. Melanoma-free JiSM3 has a new ad out calling Obama the biggest celebrity in the world. The McCain Press release suggests you catch ABC’s coverage of it…
In the classic MSM style, it’s about how both campaigns are “going negative”.
So ABC, what type of negative attacks are we seeing?
Bush has dropped so far that he’s on par with Britney and Paris. But here’s the funny part, you have to watch through to get the impression, but never before has responding to smears been so classy.
And, since it’s ABC, we get a little racism in chocolate protein bars and black forest berry honest tea. And after spending most of the segment covering McCain’s descent into partisan mudslinging, they show the Obama response – and it is killer.
But here’s the thing – all of the Obama stuff was presented in the piece as what they actually were – responses to McCain attacks. So he’s getting now what McCain wanted earlier, to appear to be above the mudslinging, and yet still get his “negative” message across.
This was a joke, right? The Pentagon wouldn’t let Obama go – it had nothing to do with his super-psychic powers.
But the Pentagon had originally ***fully approved*** Obama’s visit, 10 days before. It executed this sudden reversal just before the visit. And this also came right after Condi Rice explicitly forbade any US State Dep’t personnel from even attending Obama’s rally. In the context of that and the overwhelming, incredible success of Obama’s overseas journey, this Pentagon reversal is highly suspect to me. It reeks of influence from higher levels. All it takes is a general or two not wanting to be forced to retire early, and the rationale of the military supposing to be apolitical – while actually being used for political ends. A mind-bendingly ironic that’s the hallmark of this administration’s amoral politics…
In any case, Obama was told he could go, but only if his visit was paid for with campaign funds. If Obama had gone under those circumstances, then even without press and photographers present it would have been hard to dislodge that this wasn’t “using troops as props”.
So he took the smart way out.
Faggots and traitors keyed my car.
Woo. Proofread more.
Above should read: “A mind-bendingly ironic attack that’s the hallmark of this administration’s amoral politics…”
Keep Austin weird!
New Barack site for the fight-back crowd:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/mccainslowroadexpress/
Apologies for the rant earlier in the blog. The ‘we’re going to lose’ crowd gets me a little hot under the collar (looks like I picked the wrong week to quit caffine).
this Pentagon reversal is highly suspect to me
No shit Jack.
I didn’t hear the part about him foreseeing the smear job and dodging it though – could be I guess. The first reports were that he didn’t go because he wasn’t allowed to bring any campaign staff and it would have been too hard to organize without them. If the campaign did smell trouble, that would be an encouraging sign.
In general i’m split between thinking the GOP is going to lose, bomb Iran, and try to make Obama a one-termer, and thinking they’re just going to cheat rampantly and know no one will ever call them on it. I’m praying for #1, as it gives me four extra years to prepare to leave the country.
I admit that at times I, too, despair for America as being a nation populated primarily with assholes (the most recent time being with the FISA fiasco). The feeling usually passes, however. Today a Bush-43 appointed federal judge declared that former Bush admin people can’t claim executive privilege as an excuse to ignore Congressional subpoenas. That’s a little victory. Monday, a DOJ report declared that indeed there was potentially-illegal political hackery in the hiring practices at the DOJ. While the people who did it may avoid any consequences (other than the damage to their reputations), it was official confirmation of malpractice in office. That’s a little victory. These things add up. The constant trickle of embarrassments to the administration and Congressional Republicans are a big reason Obama will win in November.
I didn’t hear the part about him foreseeing the smear job and dodging it though – could be I guess.
Admittedly, that’s my interpretation. But the sitch going in seemed weird to me, and just the notion of Obama going in when the Pentagon is being publicly discouraging just seemed like a bad idea on general PR principle.
So I was glad to see Obama not go in, whether for my hypothetical reasons or for the logistical reasons given in public…
Obama might not be foreseeing the smear jobs necessarily – but he definitely has a great instinct for how to not leave himself open. And a related great instinct for how to close an argument to further reiteration, as much as possible.
Obama might not be foreseeing the smear jobs necessarily – but he definitely has a great instinct for how to not leave himself open. And a related great instinct for how to close an argument to further reiteration, as much as possible.
He could be doing a lot worse, that’s for sure.
I will certainly be watching the election with great interest. It certainly looks pretty damn good for Obama right now. I just never underestimate Democrats when it comes to pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.
I once had a long argument with a Democratic operative where he tried to convince me that “Americans” just didn’t like liberal ideas and never would, didn’t want to end the war, yadda yadda, and thus the only way to win was to snuggle up to the Republicans at all costs. This was shortly before the elections of 2006. I wonder if he still thinks that. I honestly couldn’t say.
Sorry, but the only electoral predictions I listen to are the exit polls on the day of the election, and those fucking let me down last time.
You don’t know what’s going to happen, Brad, for good and ill. No one does.
Nate Silver’s newish site fivethirtyeight.com is awesome for a reality check. Obama is winning. He can still lose, and the Rove electoral fraud factor is major hurdle, but he’s winning.
This isn’t 2004, the outcome is not obviously predetermined. The beauty and horror of this year is we just don’t know.
WTF?!?! First Fafblog, and now Billmon?
Thank god I gave up back in college (early 90’s) on the budding focus gay activists were putting on marriage rights. I knew then it would always be a losing battle. I mean, I can only get married in two states now. They simply couldn’t deliver exactly what I wanted in the timeframe I thought best.
Same thing for this “movement” — if they can’t lock down massive goals in a short amount of time, with months to go before voting, they’re clearly going to lose (always) and it’s all just as doomed as us silly fags who thought we could maybe get married one day.
Billmon? Woot!
Four more years of this shit with a senile bush clone will absolutely kill this country.
Some people would like that, though. Imagine the warm “I told you so” glow Jeremiah felt.
and now Billmon?
Alright, a beautiful pony in this room fool of manure!
And when I say fool I mean full., as in I’m happy as a full fool.
I like this thread. It’s meta, a safety valve so people can cut loose before getting back on the job of shooting GOP victory dreams behind the chemical sheds.
America prevails.
Brad, next time you get the urge to write a post like this, sit down, write it out, read it, then hit delete. You sound like a fucking three year old who’s afraid he’s not going to get his ice cream after dinner…You could have save a lot of time by writing “Please post comments that make me feel better.”
Word.
This is like a flashback to Democratic Underground in 2004, except nobody is suggesting that John McCain be the Democratic VP nominee.
The polls are good. Obama’s on the upswing.
Oddly enough, I seem to recall people saying the same thing about Kerry. And Gore.
a safety valve so people can cut loose before getting back on the job of shooting GOP victory dreams behind the chemical sheds.
America prevails.
Well said. It’s good to time to address concerns, while the ammo’s being reloaded.
For electoral insights at least, I also like http://www.electoral-vote.com/ .
Oddly enough, I seem to recall people saying the same thing about Kerry. And Gore.
Dear God, what a dogfuck this thread is.
Not any more, SamFromUtah, because now the thread is, at least for me, Billmon appreciation night!
Sing it, baby.
…thread is, at least for me, Billmon appreciation night!
Fair enough. I’m glad he posted, and I hope to see more.
I love that we can’t wait for the debates. Obama is not a good off-the-cuff speaker. He becomes flustered. McCain will lose on every substantial point and the press will say he won. They’ll find a “gaffe” to fasten onto. The debates are more likely to be the point for us to realise we’ve lost, not our crowning moment.
It’s fine to say McCain is slinging shit and Obama is walking away clean. But he has a barrow more shit, and whenever our side pushes back, it’s ignored by the media. They don’t want to sell “McCain flipflopper” or “clueless McCain”. They want to sell “McMan of Steel”. And the Repugnicunts only need to get close enough to steal it.
I think it’s still in the balance. I think that Obama hasn’t helped himself by coming out as a rightist. His best selling point is being different. Making it a straight comparison between two “centrists” is a losing bet because you’re kidding yourself if you think Appalachia ends at Pittsburgh.
Jeezus! Gimme a minute! You go to work for a few untoobed hours and the Ultimate Thread is born, weaned, goes through its tantrums and rebellious phases, and has packed its shit to move into a hellish off-campus apartment before you even get a chance to say hey.
Lemme splain. No, there is no time. Lemme sum up:
What seventwentyfour said.
And billmon’s return? Glorious!
And Dr. Zen’s harshing my buzz.
If there was ever a situation where people would vote for ANYTHING that wasn’t the status quo it’s today. Go ahead an believe that people will vote for McCain. I am certain that if Obama is still with us in november, he’ll be the next president.
Goddess protect us, ANYTHING but an Obama assassination. That would America’s Hutu-v-Tutsi moment, and I’m not sure which “side” gets to play the Hutus, either. Even the most malignant of the Rove/Ailes Atwater alumni get the fear cramps thinking about this, because it would be game-changing like a poolcue in the hands of a PCPed player… during a chess match. If Tribe Resentful morphs into Tribe Retaliation, we.are.all.so.fucked.
On the other hand, my inner Eeyore can lay out a scenario where Old John McSame takes a bullet at the end of / just after the fReichtard Hatefest in the Heartland, and his VP choice announces that only another Rethug president can atone for this crime against Republican Jesus. The problem is, they’d need some kind of semi-presentably “charismatic” replacement candidate to carry it off, and I don’t see much charisma sloshing around the GOPer pool, although of course I ain’t their target market either. Just one more nightmare between now and November — when we can all buckle down and prepare for the tsunami of nightmares coming down in January, no matter which team’s colors are flying from the West Wing turrets.
I want my cakewalk and I want it now!
You ask for a McCain takedown and Billmon returns. Fucking brilliant – a pretty complete McCain bio from someone who isn’t interested in sucking back on JiSM3. Snippertigibbets if the name ain’t enough to get you clickin’:
and
and
and
Fucker still writes clear and honest and I challenge any one to start reading his multi-thousand word post and stop part way through. Can’t be done.
I remember being giddy about the prospect of Bush losing in ’04, only to be severly disappointed at Kerry’s loss. Not sure what will happen this time around, but I am buoyed by the fact that I’ve been contacted by Obama’s team seeking my support. I’ve voted since 84,and this has never happened before. I live in Indiana, where, when the polls close at 6, the race is called for the Rebuplican at 6:01. I think its great that Obama is spending resources in red states, and can only hope it pays off. I’m worried, but since optimism is cheap, will choose to stay optimistic (and resolve to get involved for a change).
Personally, I think you should stay with the Republicans. They’re the only ones you can trust. Oh, the other ones have arguments that sound good. But who do you trust? Faggots and traitors? Or real men?
I’m debating whether this is high quality agreement snark or real pissiness.
It is always a delight to see the groupthinking liberals snarl at each other over whose ideology is most pure. The primary will go down as a classic, with each faction playing their version of collectivist identity politics out to its vicious, dehumanizing conclusion.
I particularly enjoyed my brief joust with DN Nation, who claims that Rev Wright didn’t stick to Obama and in the same breath wonders why Obama can’t get any traction as the campaign continues (he’s actually losing ground as many polls are showing.)
The real pleasure will start Nov 5, as liberals tear themselves apart attacking the intelligence and integrity of the American people for rejecting once again the hateful politics of the far left. Until then, I’ll make due with calling out the denizens of S,N! on their hypocritical bullshit; it’s fun and easy and passes the time until the NFL starts.
That movie scared the shit out of me. It is the future. No doubt.
Until then, I’ll make due with calling out the denizens of S,N! on their hypocritical bullshit; it’s fun and easy and passes the time until the NFL starts.
Tip, troofie: spit laced with Cheetos dust makes poor-quality lube and tends to leaves orange stains.
Tip, troofie: spit laced with Cheetos dust makes poor-quality lube and tends to leaves orange stains.
Why should he care, Brandi? It’s not like anyone’s gonna see that area au natural.
Jesus, that spite article was insightful.
Anne L said: On the other hand, my inner Eeyore can lay out a scenario where Old John McSame takes a bullet at the end of / just after the fReichtard Hatefest in the Heartland, and his VP choice announces that only another Rethug president can atone for this crime against Republican Jesus. The problem is, they’d need some kind of semi-presentably “charismatic” replacement candidate to carry it off, and I don’t see much charisma sloshing around the GOPer pool, although of course I ain’t their target market either.
That is a concern for me, particularly if Romney gets the VP slot. Knocking off old JM wouldn’t be too hard, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth if that happened would be enough for the GoP. However, if Obama gets knocked off, god help all of you!
D.N. Nation wrote:
FYI, the Wright drama was when I first started having *serious* doubts about Obama. Not because of his relationship with Wright, mind you, but the way in which he so quickly threw Rev. Wright under the bus. In other words, he talked a good progressive game, but he would run for the hills at the slightest GOP or Beltway criticism. How quickly would he throw me under the bus, I wondered? Not long, it turned out. Then he threw his own supporters under the bus on FISA. Then offshore drilling. What’s next?
Mandos wrote:
Bingo! It goes back to a quote from Hillary herself: “the fights that are worth fighting for” (youtube link). The writing on the wall says that the OFB f&#^ed up and chose the wrong candidate.
Obama’s schtick of unity and ‘bipartisan’ cooperation: about 20 years too early and ill-suited to the current political moment, when as stated earlier trench warfare is needed.
Obama’s credentials: thin and wanting. That’s just a fact that his strong supporters have refused to deal with, and in fact if you recall it was spun as a positive early on. After electing an inexperienced Bush 8 years ago and seeing the result (the man child in action), does it surprise you that there are both Democrats & Republicans who are wary of doing it again? (Don’t counter with how inexperienced McCain is, because that’s not the issue).
Obama’s campaign: Vacuous, empty and somewhat self-absorbed. Some of the attacks on him were inevitable, because he has/had many associations which were easy marks for the GOP to highlight: Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright, etc. Personally I thought Rev. Wright was right about a lot of things (like America’s reaction to 9/11) and honestly thought Obama would defend him and point out what he was trying to say. But he denounced Wright, saying his words were too “divisive.” So with Obama you get the leftist associations that Republicans can drum up to scare people AND Obama will throw them under the bus. In other words, the GOP gets to have its cake and eat it too.
And yes, Obama’s supporters are a big negative to his campaign, because of the religious devotion shown to him, the bombastic nature of their rhetoric and the way so many tend to lie and be dishonest (even with themselves) about their candidate because they want him to win so badly. Also, Obama ran a scorched-earth campaign in the primary that narrowly clinched him the nomination, but in doing so he pissed away strong progressive support and enthusiasm under the PoliSci 101 calculation that the rest of us had “nowhere else to go” And of course there’s the fact that he has shown himself to be rather spineless. The latest examples are FISA and offshore drilling. But us Hillary supporters were seeing the same thing earlier this year and last on Social Security (playing up the nonexistent ‘crisis’) and health care (his health care plan sucks and isn’t universal by a long shot, but he kept trying to spin it as universal). Even Iraq: when he got to the Senate, despite all that buzz about him being so against the ‘dumb war.’ he voted for the funding. And Samantha Power told the British press that Obama’s ‘timetable’ for withdrawal would be revised based on what “commanders on the ground” told him we needed to do. After that little incident, she resigned from his campaign.
I’m sure you had a different perspective, but you need to understand that none of these things have to do with racism. And I was perfectly OK with Obama (just preferring Hillary) for quite some time & even enthusiastic about his candidacy. You also need to understand that wildly throwing around charges of racism discredits you and discredits Democrats in general, not only because it causes people to question your judgment, but because then it makes it harder to point out legitimate instances of racism. Racism exists in America, but it isn’t what it once (case in point: Obama being the nominee, that’s not insignificant) and it isn’t the reason he’s underperforming.
[…] false, all the while pushing a narrative based upon these falsehoods. Brad at Sadly, No! has penned a couple doomsaying posts in which he sees the imminent death of the Obama candidacy and another Republican victory on […]
[…] and yesterday, so I didn’t realize I had been right until this morning. This bothers me because spite works in spite of the myth that Americans dislike negativity. I have a Pavlovian response bourne from […]
Personally I think there’s every reason to be able to maintained a frightened, paranoid screamer’s optimism that Obama could win.