Shorter John Lott

Exploding the Fireworks Safety ‘Threat’

My statistical analysis proves that my children are dirty and stinky little rascals.

Inspired by MattT.

Shorter concept inspired by busy, busy, busy from an idea by D-Squared.

Added: Lott also writes:

This issue is badly distorted by the media. A search of the top 100 newspapers found 140 news stories in the last year warning that fireworks could be deadly if used improperly. But, despite this edge to the coverage, on average just six people a year died in fireworks-related incidents from 1990 to 2002. […]

By comparison, about 20 times more children under the age of 10 drown in home bathtubs each year than the number of people who are killed in fireworks accidents.

Lott claims the issue is “distorted” by the media, but gives no data as to how many stories were published about the number of bathtub drownings. Without this piece of the puzzle, how are we to conclude that the coverage is “distorted?” Lott then adds:

Despite the fears raised by the media, fireworks deaths are just not something that people should spend any time worrying about.

Lott found an average 1.4 stories per paper per year — and this amounts to fear mongering by the media? Did you know that according to LexisNexis, there were 232 stories in major papers* about poisonous snakes?

* Approximately 50, mostly American, papers.

Edit: Via Tim Lambert, we find out that Hunt Stilwell was equally unimpressed.

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What do you mean we could lose?

Some things must be read to be believed:

Pentagon and Justice Department officials said they were considering moving all the prisoners from the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to a conservative judicial district within the United States, according to the [LA Times.] […]

“They really didn’t have a specific plan for what to do, case by case, if we lost,” a senior Defense Department official was quoted as saying in the report. “The Justice Department didn’t have a plan. State didn’t have a plan.

“It’s astounding to me that these cases have been pending for so long and nobody came up with a contingency plan.” [Emphasis added]

Yeah, it’s astounding. In other astounding developments:

Carole Coleman on Bush

Blair sends this link featuring Carole Coleman (that terribly rude Irish woman who wanted George Bush to answer her questions) discussing her interview with the President:

He was tough. He was very tough.

Tough as a stump.

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Poor Andrew, reading what you link to is just so hard

In his continuing quest to call Michael Moore names, Andrew Sullivan writes:

JACKASS BEAT FAHRENHEIT: Yep, the movie with all those hot young straight dudes shoving toy cars up their posteriors actually beat out Michael Moore at the box office. F9/11 wasn’t the biggest grossing documentary. Jackass was. It was non-fiction, and about as informative as Mr Moore. And a lot more to look at.

Andrew posted this on June 30 at 12:17 am. Had he actually read the comments on the post he linked to, he would have noticed that (leaving aside the ultra lame premise) the assertion is, in fact, inaccurate. A commenter pointed out on June 29 at 6:42 pm:

The estimate may not have beaten Jackass [$22.8 million,] but when the actual numbers came in it turns out it actually pulled in $23,920,637.

Box office results

Andrew linked two days late to a story that had turned out to be bogus a day later. Good luck with your fundraising. [For bonus entertainment, F9/11 managed to outsell Jackass while the latter was shown on 2,509 screens, compared to 868 for Moore’s movie.]

Is there anything the angry right won’t stoop to?

Update: Sadly, No! gets results:

JACKASS UPDATE: The initial returns of “Fahrenheit 9/11″ were less than “Jackass.” But the adjusted returns show F9/11 inching ahead of the boys with the toys. Let’s see if Moore’s propaganda beats out “Jackass’s” total $64.2 million.

Yeah, let’s see Andrew. Will you shut the fuck up when it does? Isn’t it great how when Jackass was thought the winner (by $1.0 million) it was just a win, but F9/11 winning by $1.1 million is called “inching ahead?”

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Lunatic is the word you apply to sane people

Fresh from our latest visit to The Rant in our quest to find a new Brian Cherry, we are happy to introduce you to Justin “Dapper” Darr, whose column is titled To Thy Own Self Be True. Justin is mad that another American has been killed in Iraq:

Savage is too kind a word to describe the perpetrators of this act. Savage is a word you apply to human beings.

Yes, savage is a word best used for humans — and these people were obviously not humans. Justin, fortunately, knows why the terrorists psychopaths hate us:

Over 80 years ago, before there was an Israel, and America had no real interests in the Middle East, radical Islamists first wrote out the evils of our society based on the fact that we allowed unmarried men and women to dance together. That is correct. America was targeted as a decadent threat to Islam because we have high school proms.

Gee, radical Islamists sound a lot like these guys:

Now for the Christian young person you have more issues to deal with. First and foremost, does God want you to attend this prom? It would be really easy to just sweep this question under the rug and try to ignore it, but Christians should never ignore the things of this world that confront them and the things that tempt them to do evil. So let’s get some answers from the Bible […]

But did you also know that the sinful people got involved in fleshly dancing and that led to all kinds of immorality?

Justin has more:

John Kerry is not trouncing Bush in the polls because we understand that a Kerry victory would be tantamount to announcing open hunting season on Americans overseas.

So far, “we” know that Kerry isn’t trouncing Bush because “we” realize that if Kerry is elected terrorists will start killing Americans all over the place. (Why they don’t do so now remains unexplained.) But why are some people supporting Kerry instead of Bush:

Polls show support for Bush declining not because Americans feel bad about how we are treating the Iraqis, but because he is not being forceful enough.

Bush is being too nice, so voters say they will vote for Kerry even though they realize that voting for Kerry will mean “open season on Americans overseas.” You really can’t argue with that logic.

So what should we do now?

The time has come for decisive action no matter what the cost in international popularity.

Because if there’s anything that smacks of indecisiveness, it is spending $200 billion and sending over 100,000 troops to occupy a country headed by a dictator whose arsenal of weapons of mass destruction consists of a single pre-1991 chemical warhead.

Justin: we’ll see you at the Armed Forces Recruitment Office!

As for you, poor readers, you’ll be seeing a lot more of Justin in the weeks to come. He is, after all:

a fountain of relatively useless knowledge do to years of University study.

as well as:

the hottest new conservative writer on the web so book mark this page and you can say you knew him before he was famous!

All aboard the Justin Darr Celebrity Train, now leaving Delusion City. If you need Justin, you can find him at a Wal-Mart in the Philadelphia area:

Justin Darr is a veteran retail manager from the Philadelphia area.

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David Frum, the new Canadian Pi?ata

Yesterday, we took a first whack at David Frum’s sorry attempt at economic analysis. Brad DeLong followed and wasn’t impressed either.

Courtesy of The Toronto Star, we’re happy to note that David Frum found himself again on the receiving end during CTV’s election night coverage last night:

Best moment of the night came when Frum (the man who co-created the “axis of evil” line), opining in his eager-beaver way about how the Conservatives had positioned themselves left of this and right of that here or there, got slapped into the boards by Tobin, a former Liberal MP and premier of Newfoundland.

“George Bush’s speeches don’t work here!” snapped Tobin to a startled Frum.

In somewhat related news, here is one sentence from the same article that is begging for a creative ellipsis:

CTV took the low-budget road but gave us plenty of lively talk from the likes of former politicos Brian Tobin, Sheila Copps, John Crosbie and Deborah Grey, with consulting types such as Peter Donolo, Gerry Caplan and David Frum thrown into the mix.

could become:

CTV took the low-budget road […] with consulting types such as Peter Donolo, Gerry Caplan and David Frum thrown into the mix.

Oh, the comedy!

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Finally, we link to intelligent commentary

Via Hairy Fish Nuts, Juan Cole offers his thoughts on Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11:

So, I think the second half the the film, on Bush’s Iraq policy, has virtues. He turns out to have been prescient about how fictitious the reasons for the war were. But some of the innuendo about the Saudis and Afghans just seems an attempt to damn by association, and seem to me to be based on faulty logic and inaccurate assertions.

Frederick from Beat Bush Blog finds out that the New York Times’ math skills are even worse than those of David Frum.

August J. Pollack wonders if The Smoking Gun’s Michael Moore voter registration find is as big a deal as some would believe.

No More Mister Nice Blog looks at a liberal hawk who is good at stating the obvious and missing the obviouser (yes, we coined that phrase!:)

I’m happy to learn from the article that Ignatieff believes torture is bad, even when it’s done by the government he trusted to bring freedom and human rights to Iraq. But now that Ignatieff has had to acknowledge an unpleasant truth about George W. Bush, he seems ready to canonize … Ronald Reagan:

And while we’re too lazy to comment, Robert at My Blahg has lots of good posts on the Canadian election results.

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Secret Bremer Man!

Picture of L. Paul Bremer sent by the CPA earlier today, titled Ambassador Bremer Departs Iraq. Isn’t he way too kewl for skewl?

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David Frum shows us the Reagan years were not good for the average American Family

David Frum, likely getting ready to accept next year’s Nobel prize in economics, explains why the liberal government in Canada has not been good to the average Canadian family:

Between 1993 and 2003, Canada?s total gross domestic product ? the value of all Canadian-made goods and Canadian-provided services ? rose by two-thirds. […] Where did that extra production go? That?s the question answered by the second number, 45%. The lion?s share of Canadian economic growth in the 1990s was pocketed by government, especially the federal government. Between 1993 and 2003, federal revenues rose by 45%, or almost $60 billion.

Poor average Canadian family concludes Frum — the Liberals have not been good for them at all. [sniff] Which is why we wondered how, using the test offered by David, the average American family fared under Reagan (data from 1981 to 1989:)

US GDP, 1981: US$3.06 trillion
US GDP, 1989: US$5.42 trillion

Increase of: 77%.

US Tax Revenue, 1981: US$599.1bn
US Tax Revenue, 1989: US$991.2bn

Increase of: 65%.

(Source: Excel file 1 and 2.)

Frum adds that disposable income went up by 31% during those ten years, which is apparently not good, though it’s not that much lower than Reagan’s 8 years (31.9%.) [3.1% v. 3.9%] Given how super duper we’re told the Reagan years were, one wonders: why the sad face David?

Frum also bemoans the decline in the value of the Canadian dollar, though it’s not clear what, exactly, he thinks the government should have done. (Nor does he note the fact that the US dollar has appreciated against the currencies of other countries at the same time.) Or note that as the most trade dependent of all G7 nations, Canada does reap some benefits from a weaker dollar.

So in conclusion: David Frum is a giant ass and he hates Ronald Reagan. Thank you.

Added: In the comments, reader dmm makes the obvious (non Reagan related point.) Time for a quiz:

Your income is $100, and your tax rate is 40%, which means (we think) that you pay $40 in taxes. Your income goes up by 40% to $140. Your tax rate remains the same, and you now pay 40% of $140, i.e. $56. So your taxes also went up by 40%. Does this mean that the government took all of your pay raise away? Sadly, No!

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Creative Writing with Buddy Swing

Two weeks ago, we looked at the insect-metaphor-filled writing of Shane Arthur Swing. Swing p?re et fils are back this week, and their new adventures are titled “Better Fixed Now Then Later” and “Politics and Poetry.” Shane’s essay is a kind of Whose Line Is It Anyway take on creative writing, and we salute him for his efforts. Buddy’s work, well, we wonder about a little. We were tempted to do a shorter version (Saddam Hussein is a lot like a poorly built garage that George Bush decided to level,) but realized that just didn’t do justice to the last two paragraphs:

Finally, I installed the vinyl siding. The last, and top, piece was noticeably larger under the facer and soffit assembly that inclined dramatically upward at the end where it was attached to the upward slanting roof that was nailed to the end truss that rocked because of the exaggerated hump in the top of the wall that was caused by the hump in the base where it was attached to the bolt that had a small concrete buildup around its base. Now, it was too late to solve the problem.

President Bush was right. He fixed Saddam Hussein while he was still a small buildup around the base of a bolt.

Which leads us to conclude the following:

So far so good

The New York Times reports on the first day of the New Iraq?:

Already security forces, responding to today’s announcement, were locking down sections of the capital. Several hotels refused to let guests go in or out, thousands of police stepped into the streets and American fighter jets cut arcs in the sky over Baghdad. Both American and Iraqi officials said they were expecting the handover to be marred by significant terrorist attacks.

In related Total Sovereignty? developments:

The new Iraqi government, consisting of many wealthy exiles who spent years away from Iraq, is barred from making long-term policy decisions and will not control the 160,000 foreign troops remaining in the country. The government has the right to ask them to leave ? but has made clear it has no intention of doing so. The government also cannot reverse any of the laws passed by American administrators during the occupation.

[Emphasis added]

Thanks to Blair for the link.

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There are thankless jobs…

…and then there is the job of highlighting Andrew Sullivan’s internal contradictions, unsupported assertions and pointless awards. SullyWatch celebrates two years of doing all of that (and then some) this week. So why not consider giving something to the blogger who does not have it all?

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Here are your details boys and girls!

This would be impressive if it meant something:

Iraq handover of sovereignty completed
Low-key ceremony comes two days early
Monday, June 28, 2004 Posted: 3:22 AM EDT (0722 GMT)

Iraqi President Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawar: “This is a historic and happy day for us.”

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) — The handover of sovereignty to the interim Iraqi government took place at 10:26 a.m. local time Monday, two days before the June 30 deadline previously announced by the U.S.-led coalition, CNN has learned.

From the needless to say department:

The low-key ceremony happened inside the Coalition Provisional Authority’s “Green Zone” headquarters in Baghdad.

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The thing is David, sovereignty is in the eye of the beholder

CNN Analyst David Grange opines:

CNN Anchor: [Interim] Prime Minister [Ayad] Allawi of Iraq has suggested that he may have to impose martial law. Do you think it is time that he do so, and do so immediately in order to stop these kidnappings?

GRANGE: Well, you know, that’s not something bad for the Iraqi people. They’re used to a lot of control from someone, and if that control brings some type of order — because that’s the concern of the populace more so than a totally free society. They are used to security, even if it’s imposed by a free or dictator-type government.

So I think that the prime minister could get away with that, and it may be prudent to do that on either side of the transition date, just to maintain rule of law in the situation. [Emphasis added]

In related news:

Allawi’s fighting words may do little to deter the insurgents, but they set off alarm bells among U.S. officials. Bremer’s aides said Allawi lacks the power to impose martial law, and Secretary of State Colin Powell warned that the U.S. would not support such a move. “The last thing we want,” says a senior U.S. official, “is for the world to think we’re foisting a new strongman on Iraq.”

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We are so out of here my friends!

CNN reports:

Handover of sovereignty in Iraq will take place Monday, two days before the June 30 deadline previously announced, diplomatic sources tell CNN. Details soon.

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