Aw damn, and here I thought this was who you spoke to when you couldn’t figure out a good excuse for something…

Can I add one?

3) Mistresses are cheaper.

Keep safe, and mind the rabid pelicans.

Prop 8 is a setback, true. But it’s just a toe-stub along the march of progress. Ten years ago, the idea that keeping gay marriage legal would fail by a margin of some four percent would have been unthinkable.

Slowly, insidiously, change is happening. It scares the #$^% out of the wingnuts, but their children are wiser.

I completely agree that the sampling process can skew the results. I just wanted to point out, in contrast to the statements of Dagoril and Bagelsan, that the size of the sample is not small from a statistical point of view. Sampling biases certainly throw into question what demographic subgroup is actually being polled.

Oh, I didn’t mean the sample size (the minimum required sample size for statistical significance *does* depend on multiple –in this case, unknown– variables). I was addressing the total black votes for Prop 8; even a majority of “yes” votes from a small population results in a small net number of “yes” votes.

The Law & Economics of Subprime Lending

Abstract:
The collapse of the subprime mortgage market has led to calls for greater regulation to protect homeowners from unwittingly trapping themselves in high-cost loans that lead to foreclosure, bankruptcy, or other financial problems. Weighed against this catastrophe are the benefits that have accrued to millions of American families who have been able to become homeowners who otherwise would not have access to mortgage credit. Although the bust of the subprime mortgage market has resulted in high levels of foreclosures and even problems on Wall Street, the boom generated unprecedented levels of homeownership, especially among young, low-income, and minority borrowers, putting them on a road to economic comfort and stability. Sensible regulation of subprime lending should seek to curb abusive practices while preserving these benefits.

This article reviews the theories and evidence regarding the causes of the turmoil in the subprime market. It then turns to the question of the rising foreclosures in that market in order to understand the causes of rising foreclosures. In particular, we examine the competing models of home foreclosures that have been developed in the economics literature – the distress model and the option model. Establishing a correct model of the causes of foreclosure in the subprime market is necessary for sensible and effective policy responses to the problem. Finally, we review some of the policy initiatives that have been suggested in response to the crisis in the subprime market. Because new regulatory interventions will have costs as well as benefits, until the causes of the market’s problems are better understood it may be that the best policy in the short-term is to do little until well-tailored regulatory approaches are available.

Odd how he doesn’t get into the enormous profits to the banks of long term low interest mortgages and how such contracts double the cost to the home owner.

I don’t even have to read “Obesity and Advertising Policy” to know that he supports advertising that (he denies) contributes to obesity.

“….what!!??”

Woohoo!

I’ve just looked at the poll, linked through my name (if I understand the URL function). There are perhaps 40 lines, not all statistically independent, of course, which certainly raises the possibility of a 2 standard deviation fluctuation somewhere, but not enough to drag the 70% figure down.

The “yes” vote for prop 8 for blacks in this exit poll is not statistically different from the the “yes” vote for prop 8 for Protestants; it is not very different statistically from the “yes” vote among married people or those who are parents of a minor child. It is lower than, but not statistically very different from, the vote by those of conservative political views. If we had more details of the overlap between the various groups we could analyze this further, obviously.

So according to this poll, married people, parents of minors, conservatives and blacks appeared to favor prop 8 at about the same level (all with the proviso “as sampled by this poll”).

While it may be useful from a tactical point of view to identify attributes that were positively correlated with voting “yes” on prop 8, in order to plan a campaign to reverse it, it is invidious to “profile” on that basis (I’m not suggesting you are doing that). Individuals are individuals. The only group that can blamed – if blame is appropriate – for the “yes” vote on prop 8 is that composed of the individuals who voted “yes” on prop 8, and, perhaps, those who would have opposed it but didn’t vote at all.

…I’m confused – but I will suit myself.