Nov
3

A Note On The Political Contest Shortly To Be Decided




Posted at 21:42 by Gavin M.

Perhaps it’s the titanic hubris to which we are daily exposed, but I find myself not one of those people who are comfortable going around all like, ‘Candidate X is going to win,’ and speculating as to events ‘after he wins,’ and all of that. I watch the polls carefully, and what they show is not displeasing, but let me just say that I’m not going to relax until an inaugurated president of a particular hue and disposition lets himself into the Oval Office, takes off his shoes, and lights a freaking Marlboro.

I’ll relax when he’s leaning way back in his sturdy leather chair with his sock feet up on the desk and “Betcha By Golly, Wow” playing softly on the Bose Wave system, thumbing aimlessly through the February, 2009 issue of Cooking Light.

In the meantime, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has a good pre-game piece at Newsweek.


D. Aristophanes adds: Nate Silver, much as I love his work, gets a couple things wrong in that Newsweek article, one small, one big.

First, Washoe County is in Nevada (Reno, Sparks), not Montana. He is right that Obama campaigning has been great up there — I was canvassing in Reno a couple weekends ago with my kids, mom, sister, cousins and assorted family pals — and Washoe now has more registered Democrats than Republicans for the first time in decades, according to the Obama people.

Second, a vote AGAINST California Proposition 8 protects the legal status of same-sex marriage, not the other way around, as Nate has it. Please vote NO on Prop 8.


Gavin adds: On the other hand, via Instapundit comes a less liberal-biased analysis by Roger Kimball.

Thoughts on the instinct of self-preservation or, Why I still, even now, believe John McCain will be moving to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue on January 20
November 3rd, 2008 7:21 am

[UPDATE: Alas, the story about Michelle Obama's taste in champagne and caviar turns out not to be true: see here. I regret the mistake. I also take this occasion to correct a couple of typos readers have graciously called my attention to.]

I know, I know: Michelle Obama has placed a large order for Bolly, Iranian caviar, and lobster to be delivered to the servants’ entrance on January 20, but she’ll have plenty of time to redirect the order. Will she need to? Not if…

We lost interest after that, but he goes on for a few more paragraphs before reaching what seems like the end of the page.
 
 
 

87 Comments »

  1. Brando said,

    November 3, 2008 at 21:45

    Agreed. In some ways, the poll projections are making me even more anxious, because if this blows up it will be that much more depressing.

    I am, however, eagerly awaiting the diaper soiling from the right if Obama wins.

  2. pch1013 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 21:49

    I just want to tell you all good luck. We’re all counting on you.

    (repeat as necessary until 8pm Hawaii time tomorrow)

  3. Joe Bourgeois said,

    November 3, 2008 at 21:50

    “Candidate X”?
    See, even you admit that Obama is the bastard son of Malcolm X!

  4. woody, tokin librul said,

    November 3, 2008 at 21:51

    Projections I been seeing today, on MSN and Yahoo, show the race tightening and the Pukes cutting into the EV margin.

    I know Job One of the SCUM is to keep it close enough to steal, but it si a bit discomfitting to watch the margin shrink almost hourly.

    I also know it’s not (yet) close enough to steal…just sayin’…

  5. Gavin M. said,

    November 3, 2008 at 21:56

    I’m most worried that they’ll engineer a stalemate somehow — that their fail-safe plan has been to find a way to have the election thrown to the courts….

  6. actor212 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 21:56

    Obama’s going to win.

    Period.

  7. buskertype said,

    November 3, 2008 at 21:57

    Landslide.
    Too late to jinx it.

  8. D.N. Nation said,

    November 3, 2008 at 21:59

    Projections I been seeing today, on MSN and Yahoo, show the race tightening and the Pukes cutting into the EV margin.

    I know Job One of the SCUM is to keep it close enough to steal, but it si a bit discomfitting to watch the margin shrink almost hourly.

    Hmm. Here’s a few things Yahoo is saying:

    Electoral College looks better for Obama

    Obama has a much better Electoral College map to start with when we look at the states each candidate can count on for support. The states that are solidly in the Obama’s column outnumber McCain’s by 238 electoral votes to 118.

    That means if Obama does win in those states considered bankable, he only has to get 32 more electoral college votes to win the whole thing. Those 32 could be easily made up by any arrangement of states, for example a Pennsylvania/Virginia win would put Obama over 270.

    and here’s the kicker, w/r/t the Debbie Downer routine in PA:

    Even though Obama leads in Pennsylvania now, it’s probably a great hope on McCain’s map because of the movement there over the past two weeks. McCain has cut what was once a 14-point Obama lead in half.

    Good for McCain! Too bad the election is tomorrow, and he’s down 7 points.

  9. D.N. Nation said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:00

    And oh yeah, although the EVs are the thing now:

    The final Gallup poll puts Obama up by 11. Gallup notes Obama’s lead is the largest they’ve tracked in the campaign.

    McMentum!

  10. Anonymous said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:01

    If we can’t win Indiana or Missouri outright, my hope is that one or both are close enough to bring every wingnut lawyer type out of the woodwork, swarming over the state or states, arguing for their awful guy.

    While Obama quietly streaks to a 311+ EV victory anyway.

  11. actor212 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:02

    Oh, and Gavin, Bose sucks.

    Listen to him, Gavin. He’s an expert on sucking.

  12. bliekker said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:02

    Yeah, I’m waiting until 1-20-09 to celebrate.

  13. Anonymous said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:04

    If the polls are right, Truthie, I hope you’re man enough to come back here after McCain’s concession speech and admit that you were wrong.

    I don’t expect it, but I do hope for it.

  14. Pere Ubu said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:05

    until an inaugurated president of a particular hue and disposition lets himself into the Oval Office, takes off his shoes, and lights a freaking Marlboro

    But but but don’t you know SMOKING will be BANNED under the new Communist politically-correct Stalinist dictatorship?

    Oh, and “Truth”? Hope your head explodes tomorow evening.

  15. Candy said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:06

    Right there with you Gavin. I wouldn’t feel secure if Obama had a 20 point lead in every poll running. I’m a nervous wreck.

    Honestly, although this has been the bestest ever campaign season for us political junkies, I can’t wait for it to be over.

    It was hte best of times, it was teh worst of times . . .

  16. Gavin M. said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:10

    Oh, and Gavin, Bose sucks. “No highs, no lows, must be Bose.”

    Well, we agree on one thing. That’s why I have a 1961 Heathkit tube stereo.

  17. chocolatepie said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:11

    Amen, Candy.

    Tomorrow I’m getting blind stinking drunk at 6 p.m. and staying that way till I arise groggily on Wednesday morning. My hangover will either be alleviated or exacerbated by the state of affairs.

  18. handy said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:14

    I just want to tell you all good luck. We’re all counting on you.

    I am serious. And don’t call me Shirley.

  19. D.N. Nation said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:14

    The polls are tightening

    Tightening. Right. You posted that right after I linked to a Gallup poll showing the biggest margin of victory Obama’s had the entire campaign over John McCain. Awesome timing.

    We’ll know a lot at 7 p.m., with VA/PA coming in. Obama takes those and it’s game over.

  20. alec said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:17

    Right there with you Gavin. I wouldn’t feel secure if Obama had a 20 point lead in every poll running. I’m a nervous wreck.

    Honestly, although this has been the bestest ever campaign season for us political junkies, I can’t wait for it to be over.

    It was hte best of times, it was teh worst of times . . .

    Allow me to tell you a story in trimots.

    Voter fraud fizzling; army of lawyers; huffing Clinton’s glue; kitchen sink tossed; back & to left.

    Unfortunately, the latter is the only thing at play that anyone can imagine putting anyone but Obama into the White House – and I kind of suspect that the Obamas have long since resigned themselves to the horrifying possibility, like Nixon reading Neil Armstrong his own eulogy.

  21. Dragon-King Wangchuck said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:19

    I hope buskertype’s right about it being too late to jinx because this post looks like an invitation to make unfounded predictions (like Troofy did). Well, okay, I wanna go on record as calling it 375 – 163 – Kerry States plus the most of the electoral-vote.com pickups (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia – but not North Carolina) plus Missouri, Indiana and Georgia. (That’s right I’m calling Georgia for Obama – sure I’ll be wrong, but this makes my prediction different from everyone elses)

    And a Senate of 56-42-2.

    And no to Prop Hate.

  22. Andre said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:21

    Right now, it’s like the intro to Theme from Shaft is playing.

    I won’t relax until I’m being told to shut my mouth.

  23. handy said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:25

    Ah, come on, liberals. The Obama party is over. The polls are tightening, your man is going to lose, and the only thing left to be seen is exactly what form the Great Liberal Freakout is going to take.

    He could be right, you know. Just sayin’.

  24. alec said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:26

    Senate 58-40-2, Obama the Kerry states + IA, VA, OH, NV, NM, CO, NC, FL, NV, AZ, recount-close elections favoring Obama in ID and McCain in GA, ND, MT, and WV.

    And just to make sure I’m the only one who calls the race this way, let’s give McCain Rhode Island.

  25. Gavel Down said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:29

    I think its gonna be CLOSE. The polls (and fivethirtyeight, while otherwise excellent) don’t account for vote suppression. Greg Palast sez the machinery they’ve got in place will tilt the scales about 5% in favor of the Republicans. If that comes out as expected, it’s going to be a squeaker.

  26. D.N. Nation said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:31

    Greg Palast talks a lot.

  27. a different brad said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:35

    I know I’m supposed to be worried about the Rove margin in all its various disgusting manifestations, but I can’t do it.
    Obama is going to win, not by a landslide, maybe not even with over 300 EV, but he’s going to win. He beat the living snot out of McCain in the electoral chess match. There’s too many ways for Obama to win, and too few for McCain.

  28. Gavel Down said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:37

    Greg Palast talks a lot

    Yeah. That surely means he’s wrong. ?

    I still think Obama should be able to win. He’s too far ahead in too many states. But the election may be a lot closer than we’ve been led to expect and I think blaming it on the “Bradley Effect” will be a very large mistake.

  29. Sockpuppet #47 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:39

    Obama winning Georgia would have one hell of a psychological impact. But it isn’t too likely. I still have high hopes for NC, since it swung quite blue for a few weeks. Virginia is also looking good.

    I think where I disagree with most people, is that I am not really expecting Obama to have better than a 50:50 chance in florida. All the old codgers there are Mcains base. Added to that of course, is the liklihood that the voting in florida wont be any more honest than in 2000. Given that Mcain MUST have Florida to win, I expect it to be nasty.

    I reckon Ohio is well and truly in the bag though. So my prediction is that the Florida result will bring back everyone’s PTSD from 2000, but then Ohio will be declared blue, and everyone will break out the bubbly.

  30. alec said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:40

    I think its gonna be CLOSE. The polls (and fivethirtyeight, while otherwise excellent) don’t account for vote suppression. Greg Palast sez the machinery they’ve got in place will tilt the scales about 5% in favor of the Republicans. If that comes out as expected, it’s going to be a squeaker.

    As I said: army of lawyers. If voter suppression gets hauled out on a wide scale, there will be cases in front of judges before the polls close.

    I know I’m supposed to be worried about the Rove margin in all its various disgusting manifestations, but I can’t do it.
    Obama is going to win, not by a landslide, maybe not even with over 300 EV, but he’s going to win. He beat the living snot out of McCain in the electoral chess match. There’s too many ways for Obama to win, and too few for McCain.

    The clever thing to do for McCain here would be to suck it up, concede the Presidency before the polls open, and hope that this keeps the Republicans afloat down-ticket. Of course, he’d never do it, even if it’s the only thing at this point that would actually salvage his campaign.

    Oh, and in another It Is *Dancing* exclusive, we are prepared to call Larry Jonhson: ‘Alfred E. Negro’ (write-in).

  31. alec said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:42

    Virginia is also looking good.

    I can say with more certainty than I say so for PA that Obama’s gonna win VA. McCain needed to win back the DC suburbs, and his winning strategy was to call them Communists in a vain effort to rack up more points among the bigots in East West Virginia.

  32. Gavel Down said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:42

    As I said: army of lawyers. If voter suppression gets hauled out on a wide scale, there will be cases in front of judges before the polls close.

    I really hope you’re right, but it didn’t happen that way in 2004. I do think Obama is more of a fighter than Kerry though.

  33. D.N. Nation said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:46

    FWIW…early voting looks to give Obama an edge in NC. To be expected, yes, but pretty dang important as NC is one of the few important swing states that’ll get a lot of rain tomorrow. And most of the urban areas (Raleigh/Durham exempt…but Obama looks good there anyway) will be clear of the storms.

  34. Till Eulenspiegel said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:49

    I’m happy to be living in Germany, so I can just go to sleep (with the aid of alcohol, of course), and when I wake up it’ll be past midnight EST. Then I can celebrate properly at a reasonable hour.

    My prediction: OH, VA, NC go to Obama. FL to McCain. Franken loses narrowly in MN-Sen. Otherwise no major surprises. GA and IN are close but red.

  35. Dragon-King Wangchuck said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:49

    I believe Obama’s gonna be past 270 EV’s Tuesday night, and teh GOP will realize that there’s no use challenging/contesting the close calls, giving us as close to an “accurate” vote as Diebold Premier Election Solutions will allow.

    I believe that Palin 2012 ain’t gonna happen because the GOP doesn’t suffer election loosers gently (who was Bob Dole’s running mate again?) – and the drubbing that McCain/Palin is going to get is going to close that door forEVAR.

    I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

  36. PS said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:49

    Nervous? You want to see nervous? How about Nate Silver? He has an entire career riding on this thing — and yes, he did blow it big-time on Prop 8 in that column.

  37. Candy said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:52

    alec, I believe (intellectually) that Obama is going to win, for all the reasons you posit. It’s just that I was raised in this Irish-American Pessimistic Culture that says nothing good can ever be counted on. (I think my family put that shit in my baby formula.)

    Hope for the best, prepare for the worst is the motto I try to live by. But in the back of my head, a little voice is always saying, “It’s too good to be true.” Well, it does make good things that much more wonderful when they do happen.

  38. RUGGED IN MONTANA said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:56

    He could be right, you know. Just sayin’.

    Oh, he’s right all right. I’m just wonderin how long its gonna take for the communists in Bozeman to start fanning out into the countryside and chopping the heads off of non-Muslins living in the USA of America Heartland once they here that McKain is elected. I’m hoping to set a trap for em by starting a badger stampede…..those poor DEMONcraps will never know what hit them. Then again, that’s why they call me a compassionate conservative.

  39. Candy said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:56

    I totally agree with the Dragon King. Palin is toast politically. She’ll probably lose if she runs for gov again. I think that’s why she was picked, honestly, so they’d have someone to blame if it all went south. If they’d wanted to win they would have picked Huckabee; he was thoroughly vetted, is a very personable guy with an actual sense of humor, and would have done just as well or better with the fundies. Although he would have alienated the moderates somewhat, he wouldn’t have done so as much as Palin has.

  40. alec said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:57

    I really hope you’re right, but it didn’t happen that way in 2004. I do think Obama is more of a fighter than Kerry though.

    The ‘army of lawyers’ part is the important one. It isn’t hyperbole; what Obama has now is over 5000 lawyers on call throughout the country, in effect one of the largest ad-hoc law firms in history.

    By Election Day a solid fraction of the American bar will be ready on a moment’s notice to challenge Republican efforts at voter suppression.

  41. Anonymous said,

    November 3, 2008 at 22:59

    By Election Day a solid fraction of the American bar will be ready on a moment’s notice to challenge Republican efforts at voter suppression

    Election day hell, they’re already out there in force. There’s an article up at 538 where they talk to one or two of them down in Florida.

  42. Gavel Down said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:00

    That will be awesome. There will be a lot to challenge:

    http://www.truthout.org/110308A

  43. Candy said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:00

    RUGGED: My advice is to make yourself a big batch of that mushroom stuff you brew and get good and WASTED, starting now, and stay wrecked for the next 72 hours or so. You’ll be glad you did.

    I was so drunk by the end of election night 2000 (well, the first night of election 2000) and so hungover the next day that I was unable to lay violent hands on any of my Republican co-workers, which was a very good thing.

  44. mikey said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:05

    Ok, great.

    Congratulations. For the first time, you’ve now got me seriously “thinking the unthinkable”. I went back and read what I wrote on 11/5/04. I was seriously down. Of course, I had no idea the republicans would so seriously and completely implode over the next four years. I was pretty much seeing a dark and hopeless future.

    So I’ve been so completely convinced that Obama would win, that the american people just COULDN’T support letting these criminals and madmen control the levers of power any more. And I still think that. But now I’m thinking, a niggling little doubt wriggling up my lizard brain from the bottom, but what if…

    What if they’re dragging that doddering old geezer up to put his hand on the book, with his smirking idiot running mate smirking idiotically from the dais. What would the world say? Hell, what would the world THINK?

    Ultimately, if it meant the end of america, that would almost be ok, because it would have been the american people who chose the path.

    Nope. Uh-uh. It is inconceivable that, after watching the lawlessness, hubris and horror of the preceding 8 years that the american people could allow the crazy coot and the alaskan inquisition to run the store.

    Right?

    mikey

  45. alec said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:06

    I totally agree with the Dragon King. Palin is toast politically. She’ll probably lose if she runs for gov again. I think that’s why she was picked, honestly, so they’d have someone to blame if it all went south. If they’d wanted to win they would have picked Huckabee; he was thoroughly vetted, is a very personable guy with an actual sense of humor, and would have done just as well or better with the fundies. Although he would have alienated the moderates somewhat, he wouldn’t have done so as much as Palin has.

    I think you give McCain and Rove’s favorite imp too much credit. Their respective picks were Joe Lieberman – which was a hilarious case of misunderstanding the personal relationship involved in turning him into the campaign’s pet yoostabee as something deeper – and, I shit you not, the die-hard Reaganite conservative Mitt Romney.

    They’re just scene creatures doing what scene creatures do: drink Kool-Aid and piss into each other’s mouths.

    Wait, I’m sorry, I was thinking about Germans.

    Anyway: the Republican loss was basically foreordained. They vetted Palin pretty well – from the reports of high-level operatives who talked treasonously to the media about issues of substance, she was subjected to a lot of serious questioning in great detail about her various personal scandals, which she seemingly handled with the acidic inhumanity that Republican lifers mistake for charm. The problem is, they were running and are still running 2004 all over again: hate, hate, fear, fear, shriek, whine. Their plan is a mixture of Big Lying the universe and screaming at people to listen to their inaudible whistle.

    If Obama ain’t President come February, either Biden or Pelosi will be. At the single best month of polling they barely came close.

  46. Loneoak said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:10

    There are really only two states that matter: PA and VA. If Obama wins VA, McCain must win PA. The former will happen, the latter will not. We will know the winner by 8 pm EST.

    But, what the hell, here’s my prognostication: Obama = Kerry States + OH + VA + CO + NM + MT + GA + IA. PV = 52 O to 46 M to 2 Other.

  47. Smut Clyde said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:10

    Thread needs more badger poetry.

    When stags appear on the mountain high
    With flanks the colour of bran,
    When a badger bold can say goodbye
    A PINT OF PLAIN IS YOUR ONLY MAN.

  48. Sockpuppet #47 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:10

    Obama is no idiot. He has done his opposition research well, and is prepared for shenanigans at the polls.

    Obama has 3 major assets in the attempt to keep the voting fair.
    1: An absolute shitload of volunteers, just about everywhere. The republicans can’t get away with half so much when every polling place is swarming with Obama’s campaign workers. Anyone turned away from the polls will get help fast.
    2: The 2006 elections put a lot more democrats in power in the places that matter. Many more state level positions are blue now. Governors etc. have a lot of ability to suppress the vote, or keep it fair.
    3: “Army of lawyers”. Nuff said.

    It is still going to happen of course, but less so, and it will be less important. I’m only really worried about Florida.

  49. RUGGED IN MONTANA said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:11

    RUGGED: My advice is to make yourself a big batch of that mushroom stuff you brew and get good and WASTED, starting now, and stay wrecked for the next 72 hours or so. You’ll be glad you did.

    Are you implyin I’m a drug user????

    The mushrooms that I gather from the woods are purely culinary in nature. Ok, so they make me feel dizzy. Ok, so the smell of them seems to act as a repellant to rabid pelicans. Ok, so the colors of the sun melt into the core of my inner sanctum and give me a profound understanding of the poetry of Samuel Taylor Coleridge.

    Ok.

  50. The Plain People of Ireland said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:16

    A PINT OF PLAIN IS YOUR ONLY MAN.

    Begob, I’ll be drinkin’ to that now.

  51. Smut Clyde said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:17

    Information about Rugged’s inner sanctum.
    Do not want.

  52. Xecky Gilchrist said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:21

    Obama is no idiot. He has done his opposition research well, and is prepared for shenanigans at the polls.

    He is nearly unique among modern Democrats in that he not only admits that Republican malfeasance exists, but acts to counter it when it crops up. I never stop being amazed by that.

  53. Candy said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:22

    Information about Rugged’s inner sanctum.

    A Santorum Sanctum, perchance? Does Rugged have a dog?

    Sorry.

    But now I’m thinking, a niggling little doubt wriggling up my lizard brain from the bottom, but what if…

    I think a little doubt is a good thing. I don’t want complacency keeping one single voter at home tomorrow.

  54. actor212 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:28

    Nice work there, Dr. Kimball. The Post only retracted that story two weeks ago!

    Bet you’re going to claim some one-armed thug rewrote your story, huh?

  55. actor212 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:28

    The mushrooms that I gather from the woods are purely culinary in nature.

    I bet you cook them with arugula, too, you elitest!

  56. actor212 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:31

    Are we making predictions?

    Obama 313 electoral votes. McCain? Nowhere to be seen.

    Senate: Dems 61 seats by the end of the night.

    The lawyers will gladly take their retainers and quietly slip back to slip-and-fall cases.

  57. RUGGED IN MONTANA said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:32

    I bet you cook them with arugula, too, you elitest!

    That’s a LIE!!!! Although I have had an aragula dusted frappacino at our local Starrbux.

  58. JackNYC said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:34

    “but I find myself not one of those people who are comfortable going around …….speculating as to events ‘after he wins”

    But I am.

    Ya know how Republicans always wind up doing the very things they accuse the Dems of doing? I got $50 sez all the Os are missing from keyboards at the White House and the place is trashed ……advice to the Obama transition people: Bring the media, and video recorders with you.’

  59. Smut Clyde said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:34

    I never saw aught like to them,
    Unless perchance it were

    Brown skeletons of leaves that lag
    My forest-brook along;
    When the ivy-tod is heavy with snow,
    And the pelican whoops to the badger below,
    That eats the she-badger ‘s young.

  60. actor212 said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:37

    That’s a LIE!!!! Although I have had an aragula dusted frappacino at our local Starrbux.

    I dunno, man, you used the word “culinary” and you weren’t talking about girl-on-girl action…

  61. alec said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:38

    First, Washoe County is in Nevada (Reno, Sparks), not Montana. He is right that Obama campaigning has been great up there — I was canvassing in Reno a couple weekends ago with my kids, mom, sister, cousins and assorted family pals — and Washoe now has more registered Democrats than Republicans for the first time in decades, according to the Obama people.

    Yeah: Washoe County going blue is BIG news – the long-running Faustian pact between Reno and Mormon Country is breaking down.

    This is, in Nevada terms, the fat lady singing – I don’t think we’ll be swinging much for quite some time if it fully sinks in.

  62. Unapologetic pirate of Dr BLTunes said,

    November 3, 2008 at 23:58

    It’s not the fat lady that’s singing. It’s Dr. BLT:

    A Couple of Mavericks
    words and music by Dr BLT copyright 2008 Right-wing Records
    http://www.drblt.net/music/CoupleOfMDemo.mp3

  63. Unapologetic pirate of Dr BLTunes said,

    November 4, 2008 at 0:00

    Take two.

    A Couple of Mavericks
    words and music by Dr BLT copyright 2008
    Right-wing Records

    http://www.drblt.net/music/CoupleOfMDemo2.mp3

  64. MzNicky said,

    November 4, 2008 at 0:07

    But in the back of my head, a little voice is always saying, “It’s too good to be true.” Well, it does make good things that much more wonderful when they do happen.

    Candy: I know what you mean. But sometimes the good thing really does happen, like in 1992, when teh Big Dawg ended that 80s reign of Rethug terror. We’ve been steeped in horror and despair for 8 long years as the result of two stolen elections by the worst president of all time. It’s almost too painful to be hopeful that Obama is going to win. But he will.

  65. actor212 said,

    November 4, 2008 at 0:11

    Mz Nicky’s right: never fear a victory, but never stop working for one.

  66. Trilateral Chairman said,

    November 4, 2008 at 0:36

    I believe that Palin 2012 ain’t gonna happen because the GOP doesn’t suffer election losers gently (who was Bob Dole’s running mate again?) – and the drubbing that McCain/Palin is going to get is going to close that door forEVAR.

    I wish I could believe that, but I don’t think it’ll turn out that way. They’ll blame it on McCain; they never much liked him anyway, and he’s old enough that they can put him out to pasture without consequences. Palin, on the other hand…they love Palin. She has that particular GOP charm (by which I mean that she’s shallow, mean, and evasive), and that *works* for them. Dole and HW Bush knew a hell of a lot more about government and policy than Reagan and W ever did, but Reagan and W had the GOP charm. Which ones are winners, and which ones are losers?

    No, I think we’ll be hearing from her for a long time to come, unfortunately. Yes, the GOP is hard on losers–but poor Sarah was constrained by the McCain campaign! She’s great, so she *can’t* be responsible for the loss! Palin 2012!

    Urgh. I’ve actually enjoyed this election because it’s been a lot less shallow and petty than usual. My eternal cynicism leads me to believe that this is a one-off, and we’ll be back to the stupid next time around. ‘Course, I also believed that Obama had no chance of winning the nomination and no chance of being competitive as a Presidential candidate, so maybe I’m wrong.

  67. alec said,

    November 4, 2008 at 0:48

    I wish I could believe that, but I don’t think it’ll turn out that way. They’ll blame it on McCain; they never much liked him anyway, and he’s old enough that they can put him out to pasture without consequences. Palin, on the other hand…they love Palin. She has that particular GOP charm (by which I mean that she’s shallow, mean, and evasive), and that *works* for them. Dole and HW Bush knew a hell of a lot more about government and policy than Reagan and W ever did, but Reagan and W had the GOP charm. Which ones are winners, and which ones are losers?

    No, I think we’ll be hearing from her for a long time to come, unfortunately. Yes, the GOP is hard on losers–but poor Sarah was constrained by the McCain campaign! She’s great, so she *can’t* be responsible for the loss! Palin 2012!

    I still don’t think Palin has the capacity for accepting subordinates on any terms besides worship, which is deadly. She’s going to be spending the next four years making increasingly crass and obvious wingnut ethnic slurs, and her die-hard wingnut loyalists will dwindle to a small but unthinkingly loyal cadre with whom she shall retreat to a bunker and plot the defeat of the dusky hordes with the aid of Aryan ghost warriors.

    I literally cannot name anyone as completely, violently opposed to even private, one-on-one dissent who has done anything worthwhile. If her little personality cult in the GOP actually manages to get her elected, it more or less ensures that the downticket is even more brutal than it’s looking now and the GOP will well and truly be doomed to third-party status.

  68. noen said,

    November 4, 2008 at 0:51

    From his comments:

    “I can tell you that, personally, I applied for my pistol permit a week ago. There was a line out the door and I was told it’s usually no line at all.”

    I predict a rise in fatal gun cleaning accidents.

  69. buskertype said,

    November 4, 2008 at 1:05

    rack up more points among the bigots in East West Virginia.

    I would normally scream at you for talking shit about WbgVa, but I like the idea of East WbgVa too much to be pissed off.

  70. Rugged in Montana said,

    November 4, 2008 at 1:07

    If Obama is elected it will clearly be a mandate for socialism, and as a patriot I will abide by it and turn my vitriol on the capitalist dogs who are oppressing us.

  71. Unapologetic pirate of Dr BLTunes said,

    November 4, 2008 at 1:17

    Well at least Rugged in Motana is honest about Obama’s agenda. It seems we’re almost on the same page, Rugged with this blog of mine:

    What will it be, “A Couple of Mavericks” or a Socialist and his Sidekick
    http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/blognroll/36669

  72. kc said,

    November 4, 2008 at 1:22

    I’ll relax when he’s leaning way back in his sturdy leather chair with his sock feet up on the desk and “Betcha By Golly, Wow” playing softly on the Bose Wave system, thumbing aimlessly through the February, 2009 issue of Cooking Light.

    Ahh, what a great image. And good audio, too . . .

  73. Unapologetic pirate of Dr BLTunes said,

    November 4, 2008 at 1:43

    Funny. This is the only image I get:

    Obamie the Commie

    words and music by Dr BLT copyright 2008

    Obamie the commie

    is comin’ to town

    he’s measuring drapes

    and he’s makin’ his crown

    let’s prevent his kingdom

    from gaining that ground

    Obamie the commie

    is comin’ to town

    he’ll take Joe the Plumber

    and spread all his weath

    we’ll never be healed from

    the blow that is dealth

    if he and his croonies of communism

    take over the White House and fill it with friends

    He’ll give William Ayers

    a high cabinet post

    instruct all his commies

    to go out in vote

    in 2012 and again in 16

    his communist plan

    and his communist dream

    Obamie is comin’

    he’s comin’ to shape

    a communist nation

    with communist states

    he’ll tell you his plan

    is so grand and so great

    but watch what will be all our fate

    Obamie the commie

    is comin’ to town

    he’s got us all fooled

    that he won’t drag us down

    but I’m not a fool

    I will vote for McCain

    to make sure this country

    stays reasonably sane

  74. MzNicky said,

    November 4, 2008 at 2:08

    Rugged in Montana: Shut the fuck up and tongue-jack my shitbox.

  75. kiki said,

    November 4, 2008 at 2:48

    BLT the fascist
    Can go fuck himself

    My first try at BLT-style ‘political songwriting’. Whaddya think?

  76. Nora said,

    November 4, 2008 at 2:55

    Can I be the only one who noticed the error about New York? I don’t know where the linked article got its facts, but in my part of New York (Westchester County), the polls close at 9, not at 10:00.

  77. Unapologetic pirate of Dr BLTunes said,

    November 4, 2008 at 3:08

    Not nice, Kiki. I do take back the lyrics to my Obama song, over my recent knowledge of the death of his grandmother.

    R.I.P. My sympathies to Obama and his family. Those who made cruel jokes about Obama’s grandmother’s death, or were cynical about it need to reflect on their behavior. Those kinds of comments make it difficult that any of us will ever be perceived to be compassionate conservatives.

  78. Smiling Mortician said,

    November 4, 2008 at 3:30

    That’s nice, BLT. Now, really. Shut up.

  79. Lesley said,

    November 4, 2008 at 4:06

    As you say, it ain’t over til it’s over.

    But look at it another way, if Obama doesn’t win, a huge number of people are going to be pissed and this won’t be anything as mild as the 50% of voters who were pissed in 2004 and threw eggs at Bush’s inauguration caravan. This will be taking pissed off to the streets in huge numbers, not only in America but around the world.

    In the minds of the majority (it appears) there can be no other outcome. Even a few wingnuts are voting for Obama. That kinda speaks volumes, too.

  80. Lesley said,

    November 4, 2008 at 4:08

    Btw, that electoral college needs to be shipped to the dumpster. Surely its day is over. Elections should be decided by the people, period.

  81. Lesley said,

    November 4, 2008 at 4:10

    Gavin, you might enjoy this video.

  82. kiki said,

    November 4, 2008 at 4:25

    Not nice, Kiki. I do take back the lyrics to my Obama song, over my recent knowledge of the death of his grandmother.

    That’s fucking precious. Is that like ‘admitting they were complete lies, and that I’m a fucking liar for writing them’ taking it back, or ‘pretending I never wrote them for a few days, then back to business as usual’ taking it back?

    Oh, don’t bother to answer. I’m sure you’ll be back in a few days, to tell more transparent fucking lies about people who haven’t yet had the good fortune to invoke your sympathy through the death of a loved one.

  83. skippy said,

    November 4, 2008 at 9:32

    nate @ 538 may have gotten those two facts wrong, but his level-headedness towards the statistical noise in the polls these last few days have been a rock of gibralter for dems and progressives like me, who won’t believe that we’re actually doing well until jan. 20th when pres. obama is sworn in.

    because, as we all know, if there’s anybody that can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it’s the dems. or, more accurately, if there’s anybody that we can’t possibly trust to be above board, it’s the republicans.

  84. Little Red Henski (bjacques' mask slips) said,

    November 4, 2008 at 12:07

    I think the *other* dark horse is going to get in. Tappy-tap the linky on my name to foil the evil gremlins of WordPress. The Wild Palms (almost said Wild Pams) reach everywhere…

  85. Pirate of Dr BLT songs and samples said,

    November 4, 2008 at 15:48

    “That’s f*&^% precious. Is that like ‘admitting they were complete lies, and that I’m a f*&^% liar for writing them’ taking it back, or ‘pretending I never wrote them for a few days, then back to business as usual’ taking it back?

    Oh, don’t bother to answer. I’m sure you’ll be back in a few days, to tell more transparent f*&^% lies about people who haven’t yet had the good fortune to invoke your sympathy through the death of a loved one.”

    Somebody needs to take a chill pill. The song lyrics were not meant to be taken that seriously to begin with. Mix a little satire with a little hyperbole, and you’ve got a perfect recipe for such a song. I didn’t have access to a “delete” button, and if I did, I would have deleted them.

    Not that I’m ashamed of the song. I’m not. Folks who know me know that I think Obama’s bright, and that I like him, as a person. And I respect the fact that his grandmother died. I thought my song, benign though it may be to all but the most sensitive, tightly wound liberals, wasn’t appropriate given the this deeply personal loss of my opponent.

  86. Rusty Shackleford (not that one) said,

    November 5, 2008 at 0:11

    “Mix a little satire with a little hyperbole, and you’ve got a perfect recipe for such a song.”

    Yer the new Rick Dees, you are

  87. Unapologetic pirate of Dr BLTunes said,

    November 5, 2008 at 2:45

    Rick Dees is a hero to me. Thanks for the compliment. He wielded his influence as a DJ at a major LA radio station to land himself a big hit.
    For that, I applaud him.

    I’ve had a song of mine named the number 8 best record of 2006 by blog critic writer, Al Barger, and I’ve had a cameo on an MTV-award-nominated music video by the band, Cake. I’ve also had national airtime and I’ve had a couple of minor internet hits.

    But I’ve yet to land a hit as big as Disco Duck. Some say disco, and Disco Duck by Rick Dees, sucks. I agree, but I must add this: It sucks really good!

Leave a Comment

  • Things of Interest

  • Meta Goodness

  • Clunkers

  • httpbl_stats()