31
Spite Works
One of American liberalism’s saddest myths is that the American people are inherently good, optimistic folks who have been duped into voting against their interests by crafty Republicans who play on their spites and resentments. If only the Democrats could nominate someone who embodies a new kind of politics where people are offered hope instead of anger, this reasoning goes, they will see the truth and sweep the Democrats into power.
In the real world, of course, this isn’t true. People love voting out of spite in this country, and the Republicans know it. That’s how so many Republicans, from Nixon to Reagan to Bush, all won two presidential terms despite having economic policies that hurt the average American to benefit the super-rich. And now, McCain is following in this proud tradition by making his entire campaign exclusively negative.
Just take a look at the campaigns’ two online press rooms to see this dynamic at work. On the Obama side, you’ve got stuff like this:
Indeed, if you look at the campaign’s compilation of official press releases, you’ll see that the Obama crew haven’t even mentioned McCain since June 22. The McCain press room, on the other hand, is filled with things like this:
And that’s how it’s going to play out. St. BBQ will run an exclusively negative campaign calling Obama a Hollywood hip-hop lovin’, troop hatin’ fag, while Obama will get out on the stump and talk about the politics of hope. If you can’t see where this is headed, you just haven’t been paying attention for the last 40 years.
El Cid said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:17
If the Obama campaign had been afraid of going negative on McCain before, teh librul medja weep-in for McCain after Wes Clark said that McCain’s military experience didn’t prepare him to be Emperor of All Dimensions probably scared them off further.
There is a problem, in that Obama’s built his campaign around positive messages and possibilities — and so far it’s worked pretty well. In addition, they’ve centralized nearly all campaigning in their own offices, so the likelihood of any independent liberal 527 etc. taking on McCain is severely lowered.
Still, I think his chances are very good, but most likely it will be a narrow and seat of the pants victory. Had just a few races turned out differently, there wouldn’t have been a Democratic Congress in 2006, either, and before I whine about how it didn’t make a difference, imagine how little fun it would have been to have a President Obama facing a maniac, Southern / Western-led ultra-rightwing Republican Congress.
Brad said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:20
There is a problem, in that Obama’s built his campaign around positive messages and possibilities — and so far it’s worked pretty well.
Against a Democrat. And just barely. He’s going to get smoked in the general. Sorry to be such a downer, but Jesus the writing’s on the wall.
And yes, I am incredibly pessimistic about everything.
The Truth said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:21
Brad - welcome to reality.
woody, tokin librul said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:22
I’ve said since Xmas that Bombin’ Johnnie’s gonna be #44.
Either way the Pukes win.
If Obama is ‘elected,’ the composition of Congress will militate overwhelmingly against Obama/Dems doing anything to undo the Bushevik mess or perform any “reforms.” That is, presuming Pelosi, Hoyer, Emmanuel, Murtha and the rest WOULD do anything like that in the first place, a seriously dubitable proposition.
Otoh, if the bosses give it to McStain, they’ll have a (putatively) Dim Congress to blame for their inability to repair/reform…
There’s no way the fascists don’t win…
Me said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:23
Whenever I encounter this level of pessimism, one thing sustains me: the debates. Just wait for the fucking debates.
Brad said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:23
Brad - welcome to reality.
I’m glad to see you’re proud that your side can only get elected through negative politics. Of course, I wish Democrats would learn this lesson. FDR got elected through spite, after all, and he was one of the best preznits this country has ever seen. Fuck hope! Spite the vote, bitches!
Brad said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:25
Whenever I encounter this level of pessimism, one thing sustains me: the debates. Just wait for the fucking debates.
Uh, that didn’t help Kerry. And he positively smoked Bush in the debates.
Look, American politics has nothing to do with facts, issues or reason. It’s all about making people hate the other guy more than they hate you. Read Perlstein’s NIXONLAND and you’ll see how this plays out. It works and that’s why McCain is going back to it again.
El Cid said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:27
It is true that if Obama is elected, a Democratic Congress will fight against him vigorously, and if McCain is elected, a Democratic Congress will facilitate his entire agenda. And even so, far more desirable legislation and regulations and appointments will occur under Democratic control of government than a divided one.
I think it’s too early to conclude simply that because Republicans play dirty and won a lot recently by doing so that they will definitely win this time, even when the opponent is black & all. They might. I think there’s every possibility. It goes along with a lot of my ‘feel’ for how things must happen here. Yet a lot of hard-core data supports an Obama victory, as well.
Personally I think there’s every reason to be able to maintained a frightened, paranoid screamer’s optimism that Obama could win.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:27
OK, I won’t lie, I love saying, “I told you so.” I CANNOT understand why people bought the whole unity schtick. I really cannot. Even if it was sincere, it’s basically a continuation of the unilateral disarmament behaviours of American liberals. People made the argument against Hillary that she was a divisive figure. *That* *was* *precisely* *her* *advantage*.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:30
You *want* to take revenge for the whole impeachment business of the 90s. I know that Hillary is a relatively mainstream Democrat, but that’s all you’re going to get in the White House. Better it be one with grudges!
Not an optimist said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:32
It seems a bit early to start getting hysterical.
Jeffro said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:32
A little early to throw in the towel, isn’t it?
It might be close, it might be really close, but there’s no way people are going to vote for Bush’s Third Term. If Obama can focus on that, I think he can get enough people sufficiently spiteful towards McSame. Brad’s theory would still be right…but it leads to a better result!
D. Aristophanes said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:33
Jesus, man. Step back from the ledge. The polls are good. Obama’s on the upswing. He’s dealt with a boatload of slung mud and come away shiny. People (and ‘People’, hence Malkin’s rage) are getting to know him. Many will vote for him. He could still lose, but that’s why they play the games, you know?
atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:33
Jeez. Hold on a sec. Calm down y’all.
I hate to get obvious, but I’m not convinced that anyone knows the outcome of the race. I’m not convinced that anyone knows the future.
An Obama win still looks quite possible to me. Not a sure thing… possible.
Dragon-King Wangchuck said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:33
There you go again, obfuscating and hiding Teh Troof. You missed a very important McCain Press Release:
I guess I’m going to have to start calling him melanoma-free JiSM3.
Since July 26 (inclusive), there have been 19 McCain Press Releases.
15 of them are about Barack Obama, 2 are Town Hall announcements, one is the Mayo Clinic blurb above. So what’s the last one?
MarsThe Moon, bitches!Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:33
I was pretty much convinced from about February that there was still going to be a Republican in the White House, anyway. People learn nothing.
eidos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:33
The McCain campaign is panicking and is now trying to win the way Bush did: not by appealing to a central majority, but by dividing the country and counting on their base being a bit deeper. Throw in some electoral shenanigans in a few key states and Bush squeaked through. I doubt McCain can pull it off but it’ll be close.
The latest McCain TV ad (Obama=Paris/Britney) just reeks of desperation. I can’t see anyone not barefoot and wearing bib overalls just laughing at it.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:34
BTW, I do hope to be proven wrong. I’m just not seeing it.
Brad said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:36
It might be close, it might be really close, but there’s no way people are going to vote for Bush’s Third Term.
I said that about Bush’s second term.
Basically, folks, I’ve given up on believing that anything positive will ever happen and have transformed myself into a cackling prophet of doom. So please, I hope y’all can keep your heads up, because I sure can’t.
atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:37
The polls are decent. The “Foresight Idea Exchange” traders, who aren’t oracles, but do have money riding on their predictions, are giving a McCain win about a 34% possibility. Calm down y’all.
Zifnab said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:38
Except Nixon wasn’t an absolute ‘tard. We’re not squaring off against Nixon - who even then got his ass every so barely handed to him by Kennedy 8 years before that - but against Grampa Johnny. And Nixon was only squaring off against McGovern in ‘72 because RFK was shot in ‘68.
Was she? I saw her lining up behind that Gas Tax Holiday idea as fast as any of the Republicans. If she was in the race right now, she’d be diving hard to McCain’s flank. And it wouldn’t be his left flank.
Clintonian politics worked in ‘92 because Clinton was - against all odds - able to weasle in with the right people and escape some bad press. He was charismatic, he was intelligent, and he was a respectable CinC. He didn’t win because of his ideology or because of how he successfully demonized Bush Sr. The Republicans did a great job of shooting themselves in the foot on their own and their party cracked under its own cognitive dissonance. The GOP has had to cheat like Vegas bookies for the last eight years or risk losing to repeated landslides.
People are sick to shit of the Republicans like they were getting sick to shit of the Democrats 28 years ago. This is going to be a Reverse Reagen Revolution.
eidos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:38
Whenever I encounter this level of pessimism, one thing sustains me: the debates. Just wait for the fucking debates.
It depends. Yeah, it should be a bloodbath in favor of Obama. But Bush had his clock cleaned by both Gore and Kerry and still nearly 50% of the public still voted for him.
atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:38
Fuck Wordpress
Comrade Rutherford said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:40
All Obama’s people have to do is make a series of ads where McCain says something from 1998, and then back it with his opposite position from today. And then throw in an “I NEVER said THAT!”
The election would be over in a week, if the Dems did that.
But since the Dems are owned by the GOP, and are under orders to let the GOP win at all costs, this will never happen.
And if that doesn’t work, Diebold is always ready, willing, and able, to defraud a third presidential election.
D. Aristophanes said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:40
Mandos - you love saying ‘I told you so’. Great. Keep it in your pants until you have something to ‘I told you so’ about. The election’s months away.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:41
Why do you think the debates should be a bloodbath in favour of Obama? Debates are all about scoring the points. They require a whole lot of negativity. Does Obama have a negative game? Has he established any credibility as a thrower of punches?
Not so much, from what I’ve heard.
And, oh: HOPE.
D. Aristophanes said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:41
We also might want to keep in mind Rove’s other great political strategy, aside from nasty lies, was ‘act like you’re winning’.
El Cid said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:43
To this day I’m confused about the Kerry-Bush Jr. debates, because I thought Kerry handed Bush Jr. his a**, and I thought when Bush Jr. left the podium and started screaming “YOU TELL TONY BLAIR! YOU TELL TONY BLAIR!” at the moderator that people would conclude that he had lost it. But surveys at the time and a bunch of conversations I had with people indicated that an awful (emphasis on “awful”) lot of people thought Bush Jr. had won, possibly precisely because he was stupider, stubborner, louder, and used his fake Texas accent.
atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:43
These people, who are betting their own money, are giving Obama’s presidentcy about a 67% chance of happening.
Yes, I know that it says, “Democratic win in either 2004 or 2008″ if that’s trading at 67% now, and there was no Democratic win in 2004, that must mean they think it’s a 67% chance of Dem win in 2008.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:43
We’ll see. Like I said, I’m calling it for McCain. You can accuse me of being premature, of course, but with no Iran attack (which might have guaranteed an Obama victory, Repub strategists will even throw neocons temporarily under the bus, nice bit of jiu-jitsu), McMaverick McCain will BBQ and snark his way into the White House.
Chris said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:48
I’m sorry, but it’s always been about race. This is about America voting for a black male president.
Or not.
All the machine needs to do is provide cover for racist whites to feel justified in voting against Obama. The crypto-islamic/Angela-Davis-for-wife/militant-black-church smear is doing nicely. Whether McCain has a pulse is beside the point.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:49
Oh, and don’t forget the PUMA factor.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hFOuKS6pITZqcBVcGFn0zssEZxXwD927L0900
I’m doing another premature “I told you so” on that one.
George said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:50
I’m hoping this is a Braveheart battle sequence. Obama is Braveheart, and the spears are negative attacks on McCain. Obama’s yelling, “Hold! Hold!” as McCain’s Negative Horses (led by Rove) get closer and closer.
ANY DAY NOW, Obama will stop yelling “Hold!” and the spears will come up.
ANY DAY NOW….
Comrade Rutherford said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:51
“nearly 50% of the public still voted for him.”
No, they didn’t. Between laws intended to prevent people from voting, similar to this new Indiana ID law (laws intended to prevent legitimate voters from getting in while doing NOTHING to prevent non-existent voter fraud), and kicking Democrats off the voter rolls just because they are Democrats, as was done in Florida, combined with openly rigged electronic voting machines, and finally having 80% of the US vote ‘tallied’ by Diebold and ES&S, the electoral process in America is totally corrupted by the GOP.
Exit polls ARE accurate: Gore did win 2000, by a wide margin, and Kerry won in 2004 as well. But as long as Gallup fudges their pre-election poll results, it is plausible to the gullible Fox News Americans for them to believe that opposite of reality: that theri losing anti-American candidate ‘won’.
Don’t forget that every media outlet in the world was showing Gore ahead, far enough to call the election for him. And then one GOP operative (was it Jeb Bush’s nephew?) called Fox News and lied to them, giving them the excuse to hand it to Bush. The rest of the conservative-controlled main stream media then followed Fox. Finally the Supreme Court handed the nation to the election loser with no basis in any law known to man, and we got the president we didn’t elect.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:53
People are sick to shit of the Republicans like they were getting sick to shit of the Democrats 28 years ago. This is going to be a Reverse Reagen Revolution.
You wish. Heck, I desperately wish. This ain’t. I can see it for the House and Senate, much good may it do everyone considering how poorly they’ve performed. Beyond that, I see no sign that the Reagan Revolution has been an issue. Certainly, Obama hasn’t made it an issue.
Not attacking Iran (and they likely aren’t before the election) was the best move the (R) could have made. They can always attack it later!
His Grace said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:55
You’re right and you’re wrong Brad.
Remember in 2004 a lot of Americans did not want to admit that the War in Iraq was a horrible, horrible mistake. Throw good money after the bad and good lives after the good and all that. And yes, a good part of an election is not about hope but about fear of what the other guy will do. It’s enough to keep McCain breathing and yes maybe enough for him to win. Dunno.
I think that the thing that gives me a bit of hope about Obama is he doesn’t shy away from fighting back. Heck, he even mocks his opponents. And don’t minimize his bare win over Clinton. Yes it was a bare win, but remember she was supposed to win in a walk. She was supposed to crush him on Super Tuesday, and he took his lumps and had a plan to win. Which he followed through with. So far in the Presidential campaign, he seems to be keeping a nice conservative pace, while McCain would have done better to hire the keystone cops
fadegeophile said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:55
We still have basically the same voting systems that we had in 2000 & 2004.
I predict that the exit poll to reported result ratio will be ridiculous.
fardels bear said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:55
Jesus people, it is July. No one has any idea how this thing gets played out in November. Brad’s pessimism has no more basis than anyone else’s optimism. If I wanted to hear mindless guesses about who might win in November, I’d turn on the TV talking heads.
atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:56
Just six days ago, the Quinnipiac poll put Obama still with a slight advantage, though McCain was up somewhat in four states.
Now, all that said, I think we should consider the possibility that the USA may not be ready for a black president. But I’m not sure, frankly.
D.N. Nation said,
July 31, 2008 at 16:58
Sadly, no!
Yeah, the writing’s on the wall…that McCain keeps throwing bullshit at Obama, and Obama keeps using ninja skills to swat it away. Seriously, what’s stuck to this guy? Boy, that Reverend Wright thing lasted! Yeah, Bittergate was the beginning of the end! Even McCain’s media fawners are calling him out now on the won’t-visit-troops nonsense.
It’ll be closer than it should (and it should be 100%-0%), but Barry’s doing just fine. Rather be him than McCain at this point.
George Smiley said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:00
McGovern, Kerry, Dukakis — not one of them at any point had either the lead or the organization that Obama has today. Yeah, he could blow it. But he hasn’t done so yet, so stop acting like a bunch of No, Quarter! commentors.
D. Aristophanes said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:01
This is an Economy election, Mandos, not a Foreign Policy election. Simplified, yes, but generally true.
atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:02
Not attacking Iran (and they likely aren’t before the election) was the best move the (R) could have made. They can always attack it later!
In reality, we are already attacking Iran.
Also, I think airstrikes on Iran might rally the Republican chances, not hurt them. It’s not always easy to see how military action will rebound.
D.N. Nation said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:03
Right. After her super duper divisive powers enabled her to lose the primary popular vote and the primary delegate count against a complete rookie named “Barack Hussein Obama,” her super duper divisive powers would have worked out mega doubleplus okey-dokey against the FOX/AM News/Op-Ed noise machine.
Got it. 10-4.
Dragon-King Wangchuck said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:04
Well, I could give all the rationalizations,
Polls are good, forecasting models are good, people want change.
In 2000, at this time, algore was trailing badly and despite the media coverage, won the vote.
In 2004, at this time, Kerry was trailing slightly and despite a huge Sept. 11 bounce, finished slightly behind.
Obama is much less despised by the Press than previous Dem nominees.
And as the primaries showed, Obama can produce new voters. Huge numbers of people are genuinely motivated and inspired by him. When’s the last time that was true for any politician?
Gary Ruppert said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:04
The fact is, Mandos, even I’ve given up on the GOP this year. Relax.
FuriousGeorge said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:07
Seriously, calm down. I live in deep in the heart of Red State America and believe me, things are different this year. Different than they were in ‘04, when John Kerry never really had a shot against a “War President” who hadn’t yet had his Waterloo in New Orleans. One single year later, and the American people would not have re-elected W, not a chance in hell. And now it’s 4 years later and things have gotten worse, and their choices are between the young guy who rejects everything W stands for, and the old prick who things W is just aces. In fact, what the hell - Obama will win this election. You can take that to the bank. To the motherfucking bank, in fact.
The Truth said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:09
First, let me tell all of you liberals at S,N! how much I’m enjoying this thread. It’s as delightful as Mark Ames’ rant from 2004 that Brad linked to in the main article. Forty years of collectivist identity politics has brought you to this state, and you deserve it.
I am particular enjoying the cognitive dissonance by people like DN Nation, who wonder why the polls are so close and then blithely say things like
Carry on, liberals. I know you’ll be back in triumphant denial very soon, but this dose of reality is fun to watch.
Mr. Wonderful said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:11
Jeez Looeez, it’s still spring training. The season doesn’t open until after Labor Day, fa chrissake.
All predictions, I-told-you-so’s, and expressions of despair (or triumph) are prematoor.
The Obama people know everything we know: about the negativity, the spite, the Rove tactic, all of it. There’ s plenty of time to address it in Sept. and Oct.
Until then, the O people can harvest clips of the very negative McC ads that ensadden Brad, and compile them into a series of ads showing Grampy is just a bitter old man.
Obama is perfectly capable of sharpshooting zingers on the fly–he had some great off-the-cuff remarks to Hillary–and will do so in the debates and interviews.
Their politics-of-negativity isn’t the problem, Brad. Their gaming-the-system and rigging-the-machines is.
Ken Lowery said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:12
Won’t be a part of a party that engages in the same shit the Republicans have.
Just won’t. Sorry.
And yeah, it’s still July. Let’s tone it down here.
javafascist said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:14
Yesterday I instituted a new rule in my extended family. Anytime one of them forwards me an email about Obama that isn’t fact-checked against, at a minimum, snopes, I will send the campaign $25. (Prompted by an email from my folks screaming how we can’t afford this man to be president with all his tax raising!) rule two gets instituted today. Every time an otherwise sensible liberal blogger gets all despondent and starts decrying “Obama’s going to lose”, I’m volunteering an hour to the campaign. My cynicism stops when its not funny anymore. And then it becomes time to get to work and make this happen. We may still lose but it won’t be from lack of trying.
PS Because that was too damn serious:
“Was it over, when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?” etc…
The Other Ed said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:14
It’s deja vu, all over again! And it’s driving me crazy cuz it will probably work.
This new McCain strategy is not just a replay of the Bush/Rove attacks on Kerry for being elitist, unmanly, French and arrogant, it’s also a replay of the arrogant, robotic, condescending, “he says he invented the internet” attacks on Gore. The $400 Edwards haircut/Breck Girl meme would have played out the same way if he had won. They did vary the attacks against Hillary Clinton by portraying her as a “bit*h” and castrating but it was all in the same playbook of making the election about phony cartoon characters that they created.
The GOP apparatchiks learned the lesson that P.T. Barnum was right, there’s a sucker born every minute and they’ve made a living selling the same snake oil over and over.
The Bush/Rove/McCain GOP team is just a one-trick pony and if you liked 2000 and 2004, you’ll love 2008!
His Grace said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:15
Oh, and just as a note to anyone… Generally calling an election three months in advance is not a good idea. (Saying it is Obama’s to lose or McCain’s to lose is a bit different though). Relax, it’s July. The only people paying sharp attention to the campaigns are politically active people (who represent a very small percentage of the swing vote).
eidos said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:15
“nearly 50% of the public still voted for him.”
No, they didn’t. ….
I agree with you, Rutherford. What I meant was that enough people voted for Bush to get him to forty-something percent and that put him close enough to steal the rest and put him over the top.
mako rojo said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:15
Not a reaction to the Reagan Revolution, but a reverse (converse?). Reagan didn’t go negative on Carter. He put together an appeal that did two important things, he put together a coalition of deomgrpahics that had traditionally not voted together and had a vision (self-deluded) mostly that made him appear far more presidential by comparison. It seems Obama understands that if you want the sea-change type of election you can’t fall in to the old model of competing negatives. At best this model has only produced the slightest of pluralities for the Democratic candidate. He is at least smart enough to look at the Reagan model after the Gore and Kerry models failed them in the ability to get elected if not get the majority of the electoral votes.
George Smiley said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:16
“who wonder why the polls are so close”
It’s obvious why the polls are so close, you drooling cockmonkey. It’s cose because Obama is a remarkably strong candidate. So much so that he is in the lead desite being: (1) a relative noob; and (2) not “white”. Amazingly enough, a lot of this country’s citizens won’t vote for a black guy. Not so amazingly (as it’s been an explicit attractor since Lee Atwater), most of those folks are republicans. Google “Richard M. Nixon” and “southern strategy,” you drooling retard.
Zifnab said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:17
What is he going to say? How is he going to respond to McCain except with “Nu-uh!” and “I know you are but what am I?”
McCain’s punches are weak, his popularity is tanking, and he’s got no issue to park his street cred. Obama just leans back and points out the obvious
D.N. Nation said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:17
It’s cute the way you and the Ole Perfessor and others have adopted this war cry. McCain ‘08! He’s not losing as bad as you liberals say he should!
Woo. Fuckin’ metal, dude.
So you’re saying that the Jeremiah Wright issue stuck to Obama? Are you serious?
tigrismus said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:19
McCain will go ballistic and punch a sweet little old lady or cute baby or some other hapless innocent on camera between now and November, maybe even more than once.
atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:20
Carry on, liberals. I know you’ll be back in triumphant denial very soon, but this dose of reality is fun to watch.
Tell ya what. We’ll trade you your premature triumph for our triumphant denial and call it even. Now get the fuck out of here.
fadegeophile said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:22
It seems to me that a landslide in congress and a Republican Pres might be pretty good, what with the Second Great Depression right around the corner.
Then maybe we can murder the GOP once and for all.
Mike B. said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:23
Seriously? This is why people have grown to loathe Democrats over the years. We can be leading in the polls with an attractive young candidate who fills stadiums, and we will talk about how badly we’re going to get our asses kicked. It’s so unbelievably pathetic. It is impossible to respect people like that.
Why do you want to be pathetic, Brad? Why are you helping inbred little shits like The Truth perpetuate the image of liberals as ineffectual little pussies who are destined to be trounced?
Dragon-King Wangchuck said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:23
And if poll numbers and forecasting doesn’t melt the cold pessimistic funk, here’s another reason a black man will be in the White House next year - Money.
McCain is being out raised by a factor of 2 to 5. At the end of June, that was also the ratio of cash on hand.
fadegeophile said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:24
Wordpress is the Byzantine Empire of regressive politics.
Can I haz comments?
SamFromUtah said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:24
OK, so should we a) go eat worms, or b) curl up and die?
Seriously - why the despair? Is it that McCain has the All-Powerful Rove batting for his team these days? Did the fake trolls finally convince you?
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:25
DN Nation: Let me put it this way. Obama ran a wonderful campaign against Clinton. But the primary is not the general. The campaign Obama ran was brilliantly fine-tuned against Hillary Clinton, exploiting a lot of strange cultural phenomena surrounding the Clintons and particularly around Hillary herself. Also some weaknesses of her campaign that really only applied to the primaries.
In that, yes, Obama was very good at defeating The Clinton Machine.
I did not believe then, nor do I believe now, that the kind of campaign he ran then would be nearly so effective in the general. Conversely, I do believe that the weaknesses of Clinton’s primary campaign would not have mattered so much in the general.
The way the primary turned out, in any case, created grudges that I told you would matter, and apparently do.
Economy shmeconomy. The whole point of the Maverick Meme is to neutralize McCain’s disadvantages on domestic issues. And the weakness of Congress neutralizes a whole lot of things either way.
Kraz said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:25
1972? Seriously? If you really feel that way, you should be making some wagers. Intrade, for example, puts a McCain win at 36.1% chance (let alone a blowout). There’s a fortune to be made here, if you’re so confident of a McCain win.
This institutionalized pessimism in the Democratic Party is getting annoying.
mikey said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:27
Nope. Wrong-O. This is different. BIG different.
The difference is the catastrophe that is and has been bush/cheney.
The difference is war and deficit and energy costs and venal corporatist policies that people only will accept if they at least BELIEVE they’re getting their piece of the pie.
Obama will be elected in November - not because of anything he or McCain actually do, but because the dissatisfaction with bush/cheney is so high.
Now, whether an Obama administration can or WILL make an iota of a difference is another discussion. But you can rest assured that there will be one, so I guess we’ll find out…
mikey
ice weasel said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:28
You think mccain is going to win? You’re fucking nuts. Look, Obama is going to have to cut open a baby and eat it on national television to lose this election. sidney mccain is barely holding on and his numbers will only get worse. This election is Obama’s to lose and trust me, his organization has discipline that shames karl rove (and all that implies).
Obama will win. Worry not.
J— said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:30
I am usually not sanguine about these things (federal-level electoral contests between the GOP and the party that isn’t the GOP), but I’m not worried about a McCain victory this November. Maybe I’m naive and overly optimistic, but instead of ‘72, I would say consider ‘52.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:30
I had in my heart of hearts given up on the (D) by about February in no small part due to the odd intellectual complacency of a significant number of Obama’s supporters. The belief that a linear advantage in fundraising and youth enthusiasm and the weakness of Bush was going make this easy also led people to dismiss constituencies that needed to be placated. Yes, placated.
Even if Obama wins, this should have been a cakewalk from start to finish. It doesn’t appear to be a cakewalk to me now. Not like it apparently did to some people during the primaries. Unlike the PUMA brigade, I don’t wish for Obama to lose; that’s why I’m calling myself ITYS.
Reverend Lovejoy said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:30
*Reverend rips off collar* It’s ALL OVER, PEOPLE!!!
bayville said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:32
My friends, it’s as simple as this.
The Obama folks have squandered every opportunity to attack this Buffoon over the past months.
Meanwhile fast-forward to after the conventions, the McSame gang by then will have successfully portrayed Obama as an anti-Israel, Muslim-lovin’, Fag-Huggin’, Harvard educated, latte-sippin’, NASCAR-hatin’, Black Guy married to the Cadillac-drivin’ Mean Mamma.
Issues, What Issues?
woody, tokin librul said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:32
tigrismus said, July 31, 2008 at 17:19
McCain will go ballistic and punch a sweet little old lady or cute baby or some other hapless innocent on camera between now and November, maybe even more than once.
should that eventuate, then watch out NYC, cuz w/in a week, there’ll be another “terra” attack…
I repeat: if Obama is permitted to prevail (not at ALL the odd-on choice), he’ll have the same congressional leadership as now. The array of catastrophes the Busheviks will have left behind will require a super-majority of REAL Dims–not those horse-shit Bush- and BlueDawgs–to set anywhere near to rights.
Post-partisanship, my ass. Unlike the duplicitous Dims, the Pukes can be counted upon to do EVERYTHING in their power to embarrass Obama, and the Dims, and thwart “change,” even if it were actually on the new agenda. They’ll have their eyes firmly focused on the ‘10 cycle from DAY 1.
The pukes, thereby, will be able to both discredit both the Diims and ‘uppity’ minorities. Win/Win/Win/Win…..
NobodySpecial said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:33
Yes, it’s true. Dirty politics and constant bashing of your enemies always works.
Which, of course, is why the 19-0 Patriots won the Super Bowl.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:34
Yes, precisely, bayville. Hopey McUnity is a great meme for cutting off the Clintons. Hillary couldn’t really strike back on that one.
For McCain, not so much.
But unlike some people, I think it’s more than just racism that is to blame.
J— said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:36
A couple of examples of what I think (or maybe hope and then dress up my wishes as reasoned consideration) national the trend is. Before the Stevens’ indicted was handed down, the Democrats seriously thought they could defeat him and Young, Alaska’s rep in the House. Second, they may have a shot at both Díaz-Balart brothers. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen looks secure because she’s not insane on domestic, social issues and because her office is very good at constituent service.
woody, tokin librul said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:38
Which, of course, is why the 19-0 Patriots won the Super Bowl.
is it TOOOOO obvious to remind you the Patsies dint lose because of their advertising campaign?
they lost cuz the giants beat ‘em in the trenches.
dims don’t do trench warfare.
J— said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:39
Comment that links to Larry Sabato’s site: green light.
Comment that links to New York Times: red light.
Ken Lowery said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:40
Even if Obama wins, this should have been a cakewalk from start to finish. It doesn’t appear to be a cakewalk to me now.
So, you imagined a cakewalk, there wasn’t one… thus, reality must obviously be at fault.
I don’t mean to be snide.. well, not THAT snide.. but this is pretty loopy reasoning, here. No campaign is a cakewalk. NONE.
Woodrowfan said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:41
The repukes slimed Gore, they slimed Kerry, but Obama came up through Chicago politics. Like Bill Clinton, he knows how to win a knife fight while smiling. McCain will start losing blood and never see or feel the blade.
Grand Moff Texan said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:41
No shit.
The Republican party, in my lifetime, became a juggernaut by uniting a tiny, well-off minority who though FDR was a class traitor with a larger group who saw LBJ as a race traitor.
The former hate everything they can’t steal (like social security), while the latter hate everything outside their trailer park.
They hate this country. Just look what they’ve done to it.
.
PS said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:48
1. Relax.
2. DO something.
There is a place for snark (this is it) but that’s for recreation. Yes, a quarter of the voters still support the moron in chief and another fifth probably don’t want to admit their buyer’s remorse … but it ain’t over. My money’s on Obama winning big, but it won’t happen if folks just sit back and wait for someone else to do it. The campaign IS doing “trench work” (better than any other Dems in generations) — grab a shovel.
NobodySpecial said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:48
is it TOOOOO obvious to remind you the Patsies dint lose because of their advertising campaign?
they lost cuz the giants beat ‘em in the trenches.
dims don’t do trench warfare.
Um, yeah.
Hint: Obama’s winning THAT battle, too.
Page 3 of 3 –
To accomplish that, Obama’s campaign is assembling what would be the largest field operation in the history of American politics. Advertising and campaign communications will be important and debate performances will be critical, but the Obama campaign is investing heavily in the importance of organizing voters and getting them to the polls on Nov. 4.
It’s a major departure from the 2004 Democratic game plan in which the ground organization was split and sometimes duplicated between the Senator John F. Kerry-Democratic Party operation and a group called America Coming Together, financed primarily by wealthy liberal activists and labor unions. ACT spent about $80 million and had 300 employees and 1,400 paid canvassers working in 17 key states.
But, yeah, keep talking it down. Only makes folks like me work harder, because we know either you’re not on our side or we can’t count on you.
mikey said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:51
Geez. You guys just feel like you need something to worry about.
80% on the wrong track
23% bush approval rating
consumer confidence bumping up against all-time lows
Forclosures up
Inflation up
Energy costs UP
If there was ever a situation where people would vote for ANYTHING that wasn’t the status quo it’s today. Go ahead an believe that people will vote for McCain. I am certain that if Obama is still with us in november, he’ll be the next president.
I’m just not so certain that is such a wonderful solution to the woes what ail us. So much of america’s problems are systemic and terminal, I’m personally of the opinion that they can’t be fixed. They certainly can’t be fixed by fiddling around the margins. And that’s Obama. We don’t need ‘a new kind of politics’. We need a benign dictator who will force fundamental structural changes in the system, the laws and the economy. Build down the military radically. Stop wasting money on the war on drugs. Stop wasting money on corporate welfare. Start a HUGE government/research/private sector energy R&D program. Start a HUGE program to figure out where and how America is going to generate wealth in the next twenty years and enabling growth in those areas. Start taking apart the system that creates the necessity for deficit spending. Stop dividing up the nations of the world into “us” and “them” and act only as a force for peace and prosperity for all.
And it’ll NEVER happen….
mikey
mako rojo said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:51
Does no one remember that the conventions always turn the race upside down. large numbers of people change their minds after each convention. No, it doesn’t make sense in a rational way, but Dukakis was up by 14% whole points after his convention. Cinton completely turned it around at the convention. There’s no way to call the tenor of the race before it has actually started. I know McCain is trying, but what else can he do? The people on board are just throw shit against the wall until they get some sort of idea about what they are really going to do. This is not the campaign.
SamFromUtah said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:51
My money’s on Obama winning big, but it won’t happen if folks just sit back and wait for someone else to do it.
Well, there is that, but it’s much more fun to pule and whine and bitch and piss and moan and screech and carry on about Republican inevitability. “The writing’s on the wall!”
Brad has convinced me. Like that article he linked says, Kerry doesn’t have a prayer. I’m just trying to decide if I should be outraged by Chappaquiddick, or save my energy for arugula shopping.
woody, tokin librul said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:52
“But, yeah, keep talking it down. Only makes folks like me work harder, because we know either you’re not on our side or we can’t count on you.”
you got the source codes for the voting machines and tabulators?
got the keys to the voting machine warehouses?
got control of the state cops?
infiltrated the minutemen?
no? pffff
His Grace said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:56
A few notes:
1) Obama is not winning by enough is a pretty stupid argument. If he’s consistently ahead in polls in spite of the muck thrown at him, well, that is a good thing.
2) While I understand a desire to hit the Republicans as hard as they hit Dems, it’s Obama’s plan. Seems to be working out fairly well so far. If he fails or seems to be failing, then yes by all means say “I told you so.” Until then, offer criticism sure. Tell him what you’d do in his place, go for it. Declare it a lost cause? When he’s ahead in polls and electoral vote predictions (see for example here), umm, that makes my head hurt.
3) Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Montana, Indiana, Nevada, Colorado are all in play. Heck McCain seems to be in trouble in North and South Dakota. Notice that these are Red States? Clearly the fact that Michigan and New Hampshire are McCain’s only two pickup opportunities at this point is good news for John McCain.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:57
So, you imagined a cakewalk, there wasn’t one… thus, reality must obviously be at fault.
I don’t mean to be snide.. well, not THAT snide.. but this is pretty loopy reasoning, here. No campaign is a cakewalk. NONE.
The problem is that it’s worse than not a cakewalk, because none of the obvious disadvantages suffered by McCain and listed repeatedly here have kicked in or are going to kick in, and some of them appear to be diluting.
It’s working out for Obama the way I thought it would. The same tactics you use to defeat the Clintons cannot be so easily used even against a very weak Republican. The primary is a meta campaign—the fact that you can raise money and bring in crowds IS your platform. The fact that you can do these things in the general is NOT a platform.
gbear said,
July 31, 2008 at 17:58
I was pretty much convinced from about February that there was still going to be a Republican in the White House, anyway. People learn nothing.
Mandos, I’m not meaning to pick on you in particular, but your quote just sums it up so completely.
If you want to give up, FINE. Go home and watch TV, get fat, get stupid… and STFU about how it’s all in vain.
We. Cannot. Give. Up. On. Getting. Obama. Elected. Four more years of this shit with a senile bush clone will absolutely kill this country. Supreme Court. The freakin middle east. We cannot leave this stuff up to McCain and we cannot let the evil freaking bastards that are running McCain’s campaign win.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:00
Montana in play? I assure you, despite what the polls say today, this is a pipe dream of people who thought that in a single electoral cycle they could evade the Swing State Strategy. The Swing State Strategy is a long-term loser, but it is also one that is systemically entrenched can’t be abandoned or evaded so easily.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:04
gbear: I don’t pronounce Doom lightly. This belief came about by observing the choices and actions of Obama’s campaign and his supporters, not because I reflexively believe that McCain is inevitable. If you had asked me in December or January I’d have said that the (R) nominee was toast anyway, regardless of which (D) took the nom.
I don’t also believe you should give up. Small chances for marginal benefits on a global scale are still worth it to those who put in the potentially futile effort.
Susan of Texas said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:04
It is the economy, it is always the economy. It’s the money in poeple’s pockets; nothing else really counts in the US. The Republicans looted the country, and now the money’s gone. Most of it has evaporated and what’s left is in the hands of a tiny percentage. Nobody know what’s going to happen next, but it won’t be pretty.
J— said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:07
I got the blues so bad this morning, just want to hang my head and cry
You know I’d be feeling so much better if Obama cakewalked in July
Grand Moff Texan said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:08
1993:
Republicans need to leave Americans to rot. If Americans realized they should be getting something in return for their taxes and for obeying the nation’s laws, the parasite party would lose its ability to loot the country.
Kristol understood that. Fix healthcare and “government is always the problem” doesn’t sell any more.
.
PapaJijo said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:08
Uh, that didn’t help Kerry. And he positively smoked Bush in the debates.
I totally disagree. He may have smoked Bush on the issues, but that never matters. What mattered was that Kerry came across as stiff and dull on-camera.
I found Kerry to be cringe-inducingly unwatchable during the 2004 campaign, and I agreed almost 100% with him on the issues. Had the same feelings back with Dukakis (Massachussettes should stop putting up candidates not named “Kennedy”). It’s a lot easier to smear an uncharismatic candidate.
A big advantage Obama has is his charisma. And McCain has very little, despite what the media may wish. The debates helped Bill Clinton, and I’m pretty sure they’ll help Obama, too.
liberalrob said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:09
It is still very early to be getting despondent. And I’m Mr. Despondency! Yes, McCain will get over 40% of the popular vote, maybe 45%; there are that many utter fools and self-deluded morons in this country. Who do you think has been running the place the past 7 years? But enough people now know the reality, as it has been whacking them in the face for the past 6 years and now the pain is starting to be felt: these Republicans don’t give a crap about you or your problems. They’re all about themselves and their own problems. After 9/11, 5 years in Iraq with no “victory” in sight, Katrina, Rita, the Midwest floods this year, the FEMA trailers saga, no WMDs in Iraq, political hackery in civil service hiring practices, US Attorneys being fired for political reasons, and on and on and on and on…there are people who do care about these things, and enough of them now know about what has been going on that the only way McCain wins is if our side doesn’t show up at the polls. Literally, all we have to do is show up, and Obama wins. The end. So getting all despondent about how America is a nation of gun-toting bible-thumping retards so why bother is just playing into their hands.
This site is all about exposing and ridiculing the simpletons who have been running this country into the ground and their cheerleaders. You’re doing a great job. To borrow the Malfunctioning Robot’s phraseology:
We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends! We’re winning! McCain is Bush’s 3rd term! That’s not change we can believe in, my friends!
SamFromUtah said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:12
This site is all about exposing and ridiculing the simpletons who have been running this country into the ground and their cheerleaders.
Not anymore, apparently.
His Grace said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:13
Mandos, I was unaware that Montana was considered a swing state. And what electoral strategy are you exactly proposing anyways? Personally, I’m not advocating anything. I’ll leave that to the professionals. I just think it is a good thing that Obama is ahead (or McCain is in trouble) in many places that George Bush won and are considered Red States. The 2004 election was close. 18 electoral votes to be exact. That’s winning Florida or Ohio. Or Virginia, Montana and New Mexico. Or Colorado and North Carolina.
But what do I know, maybe the fact that polls have Obama threatening or in the lead in several red states is good news for John McCain.
Chris said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:13
But unlike some people, I think it’s more than just racism that is to blame.
What is it, then?
This election should not be this close, not after the past eight years, not with the current economic crisis, not with the superannuated Republican opponent bereft of ideas and promising more of the same. No way in hell.
An identical white Obama with the same schtick, credentials and campaign would have wrapped this up already.
D.N. Nation said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:13
Shorter Mandos:
Dude, the gloon-n-doom I-told-you-so routine runs a bit stale when Obama is, you know, winning.
PapaJijo said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:13
dammit, misspelled Massachussetts
pedestrian said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:14
You know what will help you feel better? Go over to pollster.com
Every time Obama is down two points (but still ahead) the media will hyperventilate. They need drama. It’s how they make money.
BUT if you look at the trendlines, Obama is gaining in just about every state that he puts money into. He is increasing his leads in VA, OH and PA, he just pulled ahead in FL, he is within striking distance in IN, TX, NC, and even AZ. I’m not saying that he will win all of these states, but it is not as dismal as it looks.
Zifnab said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:14
For the record, Obama is hitting back with his own ad campaign.
Obama Response Ad
He’s been much more aggressive than Kerry or Gore before him. And he’s been taking his campaign to the ground since December when he was gearing up against Clinton.
Barack Obama’s Presidential Campaign is nothing like the campaigns run in ‘00 and ‘04. The GOP dinosaurs just aren’t equipped to deal with this kind of political ground work. They’ve gotten lazy, they’ve gotten sloppy, and they’ve given up a great deal of their popularity in selling their agenda.
They are lining up for a major whooping in the Fall.
Lawnguylander said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:14
Unlike the PUMA brigade, I don’t wish for Obama to lose; that’s why I’m calling myself ITYS.
Yeah, sure you don’t, ITYS (I’m Transparent, You See?). Your candidate lost the primary and conceded almost two months ago. Get over it. BTW, who were you predicting would win the Dem nomination prior to February?
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:17
Re Montana: what I meant was that some armchair strategists think that they can turn (R) states into swing states, and thus avoid “pandering” to some of the traditional swing states. There’s apparently people who write books about winning without the south, etc.
Chris: What it is is exactly what Brad said it was. Spite, people, spite. The Unity schtick that doesn’t work for a lot of people. And so on. Lots of weaknesses in the Obama camp.
fadegeophile said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:17
Have I gotten the banhammer for posting O/T so many times?
SamFromUtah said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:17
Dude, the gloon-n-doom I-told-you-so routine runs a bit stale when Obama is, you know, winning.
Didn’t you read the post? McGovern is fucked.
sagra said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:21
Why does Sadly, No! hate hope? Is it because Sadly, No! hates America?
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:22
Lawnguylander: I wavered between Hillary and Obama, especially after Edwards predictably failed to materialize, but then Hillary’s internet weakness made itself manifest and it became clear that she would have a hard slog and likely lose.
I won’t pretend that I don’t think it was a mistake, and still do. I Told You So. The trend is down.
And whoever said that Obama has charisma and McCain doesn’t? I also won’t pretend that find Obama boring. Behind the befuddledness, McCain has that calculated viciousness that wins elections. Unity schmunity.
I hope to be proven wrong, and you can all ITYS me. I’m in the “Democrats aren’t that much better” camp, but within that “aren’t that much”, there is still a “some” that affects thousands of lives.
HTML Mencken said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:22
I agree with Brad — and Mandos too [!!!]
I didn’t like Hillary, thought her policies were to the right of Obama’s (which isn’t saying much), didn’t prefer her. But the one good thing she had going for her, which even Obama agreed was a powerful trait, was that she was willing to kick wingnuts in the teeth. Spite can be a powerful motivator for good, too, and the hope that a Dem president would start throwing these fucking assholes in jail is a vote-getting proposition. Needless to say, Obama ain’t gonna go that route, not even with stealth. Cass Sunstein will tell him that the urge to make paybacks hell is just a psychotic desire of internet leftwing extremists who self-insulate in their own little cliques — and Mr. Positive, Mr. Bipartisan, Mr. Transcendant, Mr. Endorse Joe Lieberman will listen, not that he needs much prodding.
I do think Obama will probably win, though barely. I hope so. But this thing could have easily turned out so much better; and his presidency will be an exercise in not bickering and fighting over who killed who. He’ll say words to the effect that “our long national nightmare is over,” and the wingnuts will, in response, resent even more (and resolve even more to destroy) the fools who give them the get out of jail free cards.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:24
Er, I won’t pretend that I don’t find Obama boring.
You can win a primary on meta…
pedestrian said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:25
Massachussettes should stop putting up white candidates not named “Kennedy”
Fixed.
Hoosier X said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:26
Here’s why yesterday looked like a turning point to me.
I was riding my bike and running errands. I live in Lancaster, Calif., in northern Los Angeles County. It is just south of Edwards Air Force Base and the whole area is dominated by the military and the aerospace industry. Very conservative. Very, very conservative. When anybody’s military flags get knocked down, they ignore that it was the windiest day of the year and write letters to the editor about the mean and evil anti-war protesters and how much they hate the military. The letters page is full of gibberish about anchor babies, crazy Michelle Obama, the liberal activist Supreme Court and crazy environmentalists.
I’m originally from rural Indiana, and I still have friends there. My best friend and I used to argue about which of us lived in the more conservative, but he conceded to me about six or seven months ago because blind, lockstep conservative whackery was receding in Indiana. No one was defending in Bush anymore, the Bush stickers and posters were disappearing, and very unexpected people were say unexpected things about Bush, how much they don’t like McCain, and saying they were considering Obama.
And now it’s happening in Lancaster, Calif., as well. I lost count of the Obama for President stickers and signs I saw as I was driving around. Yeah, the nutcases are still shipping their mindless drivel - much like Troof - but they seem to be phoning it in, and we are getting more letters about GOP gibberish. The smart people are getting a little bolder as they watch the McCain meltdown.
If it’s happening HERE, it’s happening EVERYWHERE.
That’s the truth.
Those are the facts.
grolby said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:27
Well cripes, people. If you think that the Obama campaign is fucking up and that it’s so hopeless, why don’t you go and DO SOMETHING about it, like write some letters or volunteer your time and/or money to the campaign?
This whining about how fucked we inevitably are (especially when things are looking this good!? FUCK!) is unproductive and incredibly pathetic.
pedestrian said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:28
gbear: I don’t pronounce Doom lightly. This belief came about by observing the choices and actions of Obama’s campaign and his supporters
You should observe the McCain campaign.
liberalrob said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:28
Incorrect. Look at what happened after the Berlin speech. Obama’s ability to bring in a cheering crowd of foreigners was a triumph. Even the media gasbags had to grudgingly admit that he looked very Presidential. Even MELANIE MORGAN admitted on the McLaughlin Group that Obama had been “flawless” on his overseas junket, and she’s a complete GOP hack. Meanwhile all McCain can do is screw up attack after attack and look old. Everyone in America can tell that McCain is having “senior moments,” despite the press glossing over them- especially other seniors. Yeah, his growth was benign…THIS time. Yeah, he’s a war hero…but how many times can you go to that well, when increasing numbers of voters WEREN’T EVEN ALIVE when he was doing his heroism?
You don’t HAVE to do much more than raise money and draw crowds, when your opposition is The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight.
SamFromUtah said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:30
…why don’t you go and DO SOMETHING about it, like write some letters or volunteer your time and/or money to the campaign?
Sorry, nope. Despair. It’s all useless, because Obama’s not winning by enough.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:31
You don’t HAVE to do much more than raise money and draw crowds, when your opposition is The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight.
Y’all think so, and I hope you’re right. But The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight has a great track record of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, starting with Barry Goldwater. I think I’ve said all I had to say about this, and it’s time to do something more important: lunch.
pedestrian said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:32
Barry Goldwater lost
Chris said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:33
What it is is exactly what Brad said it was. Spite, people, spite.
How did that work for Hillary in the primary? Or are you saying that spite only works when you are wooing independents and undecideds in the national election?
Look, I’m not saying a vicious campaign on Obama’s part wouldn’t be preferable or more satisfying. I do contend, however, that a white “unity” Obama would be so far ahead that this thread would not even exist.
bklyn said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:34
fine with me, Obama ain’t all that anyway.
What the dems need to do is vote in more and BETTER dems.
first on the list is to toss out nancy.
Mandos said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:35
*puts lunch down for l’esprit de l’escalier*
And his ideology won and we are all reaping the fruits of that. Victory, one way or another, was snatched from the jaws of some form of defeat.
Somehow, the (D) party didn’t replicate the Goldwater experience with McGovern’s defeat. That’s the other problem with Obama. Mr. Hopey McUnity has explicitly campaigned on NOT being a kick in the teeth to prior ideologies.
Defeat from victory.
pedestrian said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:36
In fact, I counter Brad’s McGovern map with
Woodrowfan said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:36
I worry about what I hear from my Mom in North Carolina. Some of her friends simply refuse to vote for a black man. It drives my Mom nuts, she thinks Obama is great, but she worries about other (mostly elderly??) Democrats that just can’t get past his race. I want Obama to pull well ahead in the polls because I think there are a lot of folks who, when push comes to shove, won’t be able to pull that lever for a black man.
Jake H. said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:40
This whole thread is a bunch of sad sack crap. I’m so sorry the Dem candidate is only winning by single digits, Jesus. I guess defeatism dies hard. It’s OK, everyone–Karl Rove does not live under your bed anymore.
Woodrowfan said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:42
Jake, something is under there, I can see the glowing eyes at night…
FuriousGeorge said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:52
This whole thread stinks of No Quarter. I say kill it before it breeds.
commie atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:52
This election should not be this close
What election? They’re called polls, I believe, and are subject to change. After the final vote count get back to me on how close it was.
I’m predicting Obama gets 52% of the popular vote and wins most of the states (and it’s only going to be that close because of the large number of racist fucks out there). Status quo is simply not going to get it done this year. If the spite vote determines the outcome there will be a Democrat in the Black, er White House next year, because there are too many people who want to fuck over the GOP.
Now, as Mikey says, that’s not going to fix everything that needs fixing. But it will sure as hell beat the alternative.
grolby said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:55
Somehow, the (D) party didn’t replicate the Goldwater experience with McGovern’s defeat. That’s the other problem with Obama. Mr. Hopey McUnity has explicitly campaigned on NOT being a kick in the teeth to prior ideologies.
Yes, because the Democratic campaign strategy of telling large numbers of voters that they’re idiots (or at least letting the GOP convince everyone that they were doing so) for having supported a Republican candidate in a prior election was highly successful in 2004.
I’m going to give Obama the benefit of the doubt; right now, his message appears to be working. Count on him to build up a message of hope, unity, blah blah blah, and to start kicking McCain in the teeth. I expect that he aims to pull out the rug out from under the Republican meme of Democratic contempt for the average citizen, which will allow him to pummel the crap out of McCain without losing voters. In fact, it’ll win him the election.
That’s my optimistic fantasy. Maybe I’ll volunteer some time this fall to try and make it happen.
Trinity said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:57
WTF is this? I come to this site to make fun of the wingers…not to read shit posted as if you’ve become one.
STFU and donate AND get out there to register new voters you whiny SOB.
Jesus…are you Chicken Little now?? DO something instead of acting like a baby and waiting for someone else to fix things.
D. Aristophanes said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:58
There hasn’t been a presidential race since 1988 that the Dems haven’t had an even-odds or better chance in. That includes that last election, against a sitting president in wartime. And even in ‘88, Dukakis had the lead fairly late before bombing.
So let’s just say that history would indicate Obama’s got at least a 50-50 chance in November — and that’s leaving out the crap state of the economy, his own charisma, McCain’s senility, the fucked up War on Terror and all the other myriad crap emerging from the past eight years that tilts the scale towards the new guy.
A 50-50 chance. At least. So how in the fuck is it that some people here are suggesting we psychically pack it all in? In July? It’s like conceding a fucking coin flip before it happens, fer crissakes!
Are we that down in the mouth already? Fuck, man, winners are supposed to LOVE these pressure-cooker situations. Not run away from them with their tails between their legs. Did Michael Jordan get scared before he hit the home run to win the Super Bowl? Did Amelia Earhart give up when Howard Hughes told her she couldn’t play golf on the moon? Did Confederate Yankee stop secretly blowing multiple loads over his hidden stash of typography journals when people made fun of him?
Buck up, folks!
liberalrob said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:58
And that’s why Obama will win.
Now, will Obama be the liberal/progressive messiah? No. He’s too much of a consensus-builder by nature. He’s not going to run the neocons out of town on rails, much to the more passionate progressives’ dismay I’m sure. Eliminationism runs both ways, and if you’ll only be satisfied if not only are the cons beaten in November but utterly destroyed and banished from society, I’m afraid you’re going to be disappointed because that’s not happening. The neocons aren’t going away and we’ll be fighting them the rest of our lives. But after January 20th, they won’t be in control of our government anymore- unless we quit fighting.
D.N. Nation said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:59
Yawn.
Look, I’ll give you credit for obviously not being Iris 2: Electric Boogaloo or some No Quarter troll, but the McEwan/Zuzuish shit grows old. We get it. You didn’t want him to win the primary, but he did. Sucks. But it happened. So you can either join us and try to get some semblance of a progressive elected, or you can just Monday Morning QB it and make snide remarks about how you tooooooold us soooooo! or whip out the oh-so-funny Hopey McUnity O’Change d’Yeswecan like you’re really doing or saying something substantial. From where I sit, Obama has a solid if not spectacular lead, he’s running a fine enough campaign, and I’d be cool if he were president. Please elaborate on how this is an incorrect POV…or you can just sit there in the mud on your teaspoon and whine and moan.
F this pity party. Don’t make me bring out the Naderbot.
Ken Lowery said,
July 31, 2008 at 18:59
The problem is that it’s worse than not a cakewalk, because none of the obvious disadvantages suffered by McCain and listed repeatedly here have kicked in or are going to kick in, and some of them appear to be diluting.
I know. Insanely, the rest of the country is not the comments section of a liberal blog. Understand that you’re inside the bubble, here, and just like the wingnuts on right-wing blogs, we are a small minority.
Ken Lowery said,
July 31, 2008 at 19:01
Eliminationism runs both ways, and if you’ll only be satisfied if not only are the cons beaten in November but utterly destroyed and banished from society, I’m afraid you’re going to be disappointed because that’s not happening.
And, unlike them, I don’t believe I have the right to tell neocons they have no place in this country. We don’t work that way here; or, at least, we shouldn’t.
MileHi Hawkeye said,
July 31, 2008 at 19:02
Obama is too popular to win!!!111!
SamFromUtah said,
July 31, 2008 at 19:03
WTF is this? I come to this site to make fun of the wingers…not to read shit posted as if you’ve become one.
To be fair, Brad et al aren’t sounding like wingers so much as Defeatocrats.
This whole thread stinks of No Quarter. I say kill it before it breeds.
I was thinking more “bad imitation of Billmon on a downer day”, but I guess No Quarter works too.
bjacques said,
July 31, 2008 at 19:04
I think Obama should cement his victory by adopting McGovern’s Acid, Amnesty and Abortion platform. Especially the acid. It’s a little-known fact that write-in candidate Max Frost, the teenage pop idol, nearly won in 1964 on the strength of his platforms of giving the vote to 14-year-olds and free acid to everyone over 30. I’m not normally a single-issue voter, but, damn, all that free acid…
commie atheist said,
July 31, 2008 at 19:04
Are we that down in the mouth already? Fuck, man, winners are supposed to LOVE these pressure-cooker situations. Not run away from them with their tails between their legs. Did Michael Jordan get scared before he hit the home run to win the Super Bowl? Did Amelia Earhart give up when Howard Hughes told her she couldn’t play golf on the moon? Did Confederate Yankee stop secretly blowing multiple loads over his hidden stash of typography journals when people made fun of him?
HELL, NO!!!
I smell a rebuttal post.
Anon. said,
July 31, 2008 at 19:06
Please, why are we discussing this “voting” rubbish? What do you think this is, a democracy? No no, this is the united states incorporated, where the most expensive campaign buys you the CEO position.
And Obama has more money. He is raising far, far more dosh than Mcain.
Here is a research project for those with more time on their hands than me. See how fundraising success correlates with electoral success in the general election.
My theory is.. the one that raises the most cash always wins.
liberalrob said,
July 31, 2008 at 19:09
I’m starting to believe that once again I’ve been taken in by a satirical post.
jim said,
July 31, 2008 at 19:13
I seem to see one of these Chicken Little posts about every 2 months or so … & always without any actual bad news to back them up.
IIIEEEE!!!11! Obama is only up by 6 or 8 points!
OH NOES! McCain’s website is attacking Obama!
Well, quelle fuckin’ surprise - their “best man for the job” is a bucket of human library paste who does more 180s than a skater on meth. It’s not like he can win on his OWN image.
Look at ALL the special elections, which by the way are an excellent predictor of the general - the Dems haven’t lost a single one, not even in Teh Heartland … yup, the GOP even got shitcanned in Mississippi, on turf they’d seriously owned for 20+ years. They’re fighting for their political lives, even in hardcore Red State territory - so yeah, Obama must be doing something wrong, alright. Like crushing a primary opponent who was supposed to win it in a walk - boy, what a wimp. Like registering all those millions of brand-new voters, gee, what a goofball.
LOL
Dems have done themselves no small amount of hurt in the past by running some very hoity-toity/silver-spoon/Beltway-insider people for POTUS since Clinton, & the GOP knows exactly how to shut that down. That “who would you rather have a beer with” meme was no accident, it was a tactic. They ran in 2000 & 2004 on Gore & Kerry’s effete elitism - & they played right into it. (Pray tell, what braniac told Kerry he’d impress everyone with his knowledge of French, right alongside O’Reilly’s mighty smear campaign again